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TAS Bracketology 2011 Edition

Really interesting story brewing out of Weber State. I'll give you the cliff notes version:

In his 9th game of the season, their star point guard Damian Lillard went down for the season with an injury. Now, we all know the 30% rule when it comes to medical redshirts. And right now, Weber St is doing everything in its power to get there. They need to play 31 games this season to get Lillard qualified for a medical redshirt.

They had 29 games on the regular season schedule. Since they're theoretically only guaranteed one conference tournament game, that could leave them one short of getting the redshirt.

However, they had one opening left on their schedule, one more regular season game they were allowed to schedule because of the NCAA scheduling rules.

Enter St Mary's.

And that's how St Mary's just got sucked into a potential catastrophic loss when they will play Weber St in a non-con game on Friday.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Really interesting story brewing out of Weber State. I'll give you the cliff notes version:

In his 9th game of the season, their star point guard Damian Lillard went down for the season with an injury. Now, we all know the 30% rule when it comes to medical redshirts. And right now, Weber St is doing everything in its power to get there. They need to play 31 games this season to get Lillard qualified for a medical redshirt.

They had 29 games on the regular season schedule. Since they're theoretically only guaranteed one conference tournament game, that could leave them one short of getting the redshirt.

However, they had one opening left on their schedule, one more regular season game they were allowed to schedule because of the NCAA scheduling rules.

Enter St Mary's.

And that's how St Mary's just got sucked into a potential catastrophic loss when they will play Weber St in a non-con game on Friday.
Click to expand...

And this is the second year St. Mary's scheduled a post WCC Tournament game on their schedule to try to convince the selection committee that they are at-large worthy. Obviously that will be a bit of a problem should they lose this game!

Oh, do you think Villanova's bubble popped after the loss tonight to S. Florida in the Big East tourney?
 
Bravesfan said:
And this is the second year St. Mary's scheduled a post WCC Tournament game on their schedule to try to convince the selection committee that they are at-large worthy. Obviously that will be a bit of a problem should they lose this game!

Oh, do you think Villanova's bubble popped after the loss tonight to S. Florida in the Big East tourney?
Click to expand...

I can't imagine St Mary's scheduled this game for resume purposes. It doesn't move the needle any. My guess is that Weber is making this worth while for some other reason.

Nova is in. 6-8 vs. RPI Top 50, top 20 SoS, .500 in the #1 conference, there's just too much meat on that bone. Their form is ugly, though. For them to drop out, teams like Illinois and Michigan would have to be ahead of them. Ick.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
I can't imagine St Mary's scheduled this game for resume purposes. It doesn't move the needle any. My guess is that Weber is making this worth while for some other reason.

Nova is in. 6-8 vs. RPI Top 50, top 20 SoS, .500 in the #1 conference, there's just too much meat on that bone. Their form is ugly, though. For them to drop out, teams like Illinois and Michigan would have to be ahead of them. Ick.
Click to expand...

Yeah. That's scary!
 
Here's an updated look at The Seth Greenberg Memorial Bubble:

Next 8 in
Villanova
Richmond
Illinois
Marquette
UAB**
Boston College
Virginia Tech
St Mary's
Michigan

Last 4 in
Michigan St
Clemson
Harvard**
Colorado
Georgia

Last 4 out
Alabama
Missouri St
USC
Wichita St

Next 4 out
Colorado St
Baylor
Memphis
Penn St

Hope and a prayer
VCU
UTEP
Washington St
Southern Miss
Cleveland St
California
 
Last 3 in
St Mary's
Alabama
Boston College

Last 5 out
Georgia
UAB
Penn St
Missouri St
USC


If you're curious....Illinois, the Michigans, are clear of the bubble, IMO. So is Clemson, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Colorado.

On the other end, Wichita St, VCU, the loser of Memphis/UTEP, Wazzu, UNM and CSU, fall off on the other side.

We're down to 8 teams for 3 spots, with minimal bid poacher risk (the last realistic bid poacher will be lurking in the A-10 final)
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Last 3 in
St Mary's
Alabama
Boston College

Last 5 out
Georgia
UAB
Penn St
Missouri St
USC


If you're curious....Illinois, the Michigans, are clear of the bubble, IMO. So is Clemson, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Colorado.

On the other end, Wichita St, VCU, the loser of Memphis/UTEP, Wazzu, UNM and CSU, fall off on the other side.

We're down to 8 teams for 3 spots, with minimal bid poacher risk (the last realistic bid poacher will be lurking in the A-10 final)
Click to expand...

I agree about Alabama being in. I mean 12-4 from a power conference not being in the tournament? I don't care how weak a division they played in, I don't believe there has ever been a power conference team not making the tourney with a .750 conference winning percentage outside of a team on probabation.

And if Alabama does not make the tourney, I would not at all blame them for griping about being passed over the same way Missouri St. will probably be doing tomorrow!
 
Just to update for the final time, Joe Lunardi has Colorado and USC in, with USC in one of the "first four" games. Jerry Palm of CBSsports.com has Colorado and USC out, with VCU and Georgia in, with VCU in one of the "first four" games. So obviously there is still room for error, and who knows what has been discussed in the committee room over night.

Both have Harvard now in the "last four out" category, and I also agree that this team needs a serious look, if they haven't got one yet. They beat fellow bubble teams Colorado and Boston College, and split against Princeton in the regular season. And this gives them a better bubble profile against other bubble teams, especially Missouri St. Plus outside of a bad loss to Yale, they too have won all the games they were supposed to. So I'm hoping if Missouri St. can't get in, Harvard can, considering yesterday's game was about as close to finishing as a tie as you can get.
 
THE FINAL BUBBLE

Last 2 in
St Mary's
Alabama

Last 5 out
Georgia
USC
Harvard
UAB
Boston College

My last act is to take Missouri St off the board - they're behind Harvard, UAB, and St Mary's if the committee decided to go mid-major with their final spots, so they're out no matter what.

Again, what this list means: if anyone above the bubble misses the tourney, I'll be shocked, and if anyone below this bubble makes it, I'll be incensed. These are the swing teams.
 
The 1 line
Ohio St (31-2)
Kansas (32-2)
Pittsburgh (27-5)
Duke (30-4)

The 2 line
Notre Dame (26-6)
North Carolina (26-7)
Connecticut (26-9)
San Diego St (30-2)

The 3 line
BYU (29-4)
Texas (27-7)
Purdue (25-7)
Louisville (25-9)

The 4 line
Kentucky (25-8)
Florida (26-7)
Syracuse (26-7)
Wisconsin (23-8)

The 5 line
Arizona (27-7)
Xavier (24-7)
Texas A&M (23-8)
St John's (21-11)

The 6 line
Georgetown (21-10)
Vanderbilt (23-10)
Temple (25-7)
West Virginia (20-11)

The 7 line
George Mason (26-6)
Washington (23-10)
UCLA (22-10)
Cincinnati (25-8)

The 8 line
Kansas St (21-10)
UNLV (24-8)
Old Dominion (27-6)
Florida St (21-10)

The 9 line
Missouri (22-10)
Richmond (27-7)
Utah St (29-3)
Gonzaga (23-9)

The 10 line
Butler (22-9)
Marquette (20-14)
Villanova (21-11)
Tennessee (19-14)

The 11 line
Michigan (19-13)
Michigan St (18-14)
Memphis (25-9)
Virginia Tech (21-11)

The 12 line
Illinois (19-13)
Penn St (19-13)
Clemson (21-11)
Colorado (20-13)
St Mary's (23-8)
Alabama (21-11)

The 13 line
Belmont (30-4)
Princeton (24-6)
Oakland (24-9)
Morehead St (22-9)

The 14 line
Indiana St (19-13)
St Peter's (20-13)
Akron (22-12)
Long Island (27-5)

The 15 line
Wofford (21-12)
Bucknell (25-8)
Northern Colorado (19-10)
Boston (21-13)

The 16 line
UC-Santa Barbara (16-13)
Hampton (23-8)
NC-Asheville (16-13)
Texas-San Antonio (16-13)
Arkansas-Little Rock (17-16)
Alabama St (15-17)
 
amckillip said:
SDSU and BYU in the same regional so only 1 could advance? It really would surprise me...
Click to expand...

There's explicit bracket rules against that.

In fact, according to the bracket rules and the fact the Big East is everywhere in the top seeds....I have projected that Duke, the worst #1, is going to have the worst #2 and #3 seeds in its regional.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
THE FINAL BUBBLE

Last 2 in
St Mary's
Alabama

Last 5 out
Georgia
USC
Harvard
UAB
Boston College

My last act is to take Missouri St off the board - they're behind Harvard, UAB, and St Mary's if the committee decided to go mid-major with their final spots, so they're out no matter what.

Again, what this list means: if anyone above the bubble misses the tourney, I'll be shocked, and if anyone below this bubble makes it, I'll be incensed. These are the swing teams.
Click to expand...

Yup, I think I have to finally admit that Missouri St. has very little if any chance of making it. And if it came down to several mid-major teams, I would give it to Harvard over MSU due to some nice non-conference wins.

And I like Alabama as well. (See my above post).

And that's one UGLY looking 16 line, thanks to all of those low-major upset victims now clogging up the NIT! I don't think we will be seeing any 16/1 upsets this year.
 
EAST

@Cleveland
1) Ohio St (31-2) vs. 16) NC-Asheville (16-13)/Alabama St (15-17)
8 )Florida St (21-10) vs. 9) Missouri (22-10)

@Tampa
4) Florida (26-7) vs. 13) Princeton (24-6)
5) St John's (21-11) vs. 12) Colorado (20-13)/St Mary's (23-8 )

@Tulsa
3) Texas (27-7) vs. 14) St Peter's (20-13)
6) Temple (25-7) vs. 11) Virginia Tech (21-11)

@DC
2) Connecticut (26-9) vs. 15) Boston (21-13)
7) UCLA (22-10) vs. 10) Michigan (19-13)

WEST

@Charlotte
1) Duke (30-4) vs. 16) Hampton (23-8 )
8 )Richmond (27-7) vs. 9) Utah St (29-3)

@Tuscon
4) Syracuse (26-7) vs. 13) Morehead St (22-9)
5) Texas A&M (23-8 ) vs. 12) Penn St (19-13)

@Tampa
3) Louisville (25-9) vs. 14) Long Island (27-5)
6) Vanderbilt (23-10) vs. 11) Memphis (25-9)

@Tuscon
2) San Diego St (30-2) vs. 15) Northern Colorado (19-10)
7) George Mason (26-6) vs. 10) Marquette (20-14)

SOUTHEAST

@Cleveland
1) Pittsburgh (27-5) vs. 16) Arkansas-Little Rock (17-16)/Texas-San Antonio (16-13)
8 )Kansas St (21-10) vs. 9) Old Dominion (27-6)

@Denver
4) Wisconsin (23-8 ) vs. 13) Oakland (24-9)
5) Arizona (27-7) vs. 12) Clemson (21-11)/Alabama (21-11)

@Denver
3) BYU (29-4) vs. 14) Indiana St (19-13)
6) Georgetown (21-10) vs. 11) Michigan St (18-14)

@Charlotte
2) North Carolina (26-7) vs. 15) Bucknell (25-8 )
7) Cincinnati (25-8 ) vs. 10) Tennessee (19-14)

SOUTHWEST

@Tulsa
1) Kansas (32-2) vs. 16) UC-Santa Barbara (16-13)
8 )UNLV (24-8 ) vs. 9) Gonzaga (23-9)

@DC
4) Kentucky (25-8 ) vs. 13) Belmont (30-4)
5) West Virginia (20-11) vs. 12) Illinois (19-13)

@Chicago
3) Purdue (25-7) vs. 14) Akron (22-12)
6) Xavier (24-7) vs. 11) Villanova (21-11)

@Chicago
2) Notre Dame (26-6) vs. 15) Wofford (21-12)
7) Washington (23-10) vs. 10) Butler (22-9)
 
NIT

EAST
1) Boston College (20-12) vs. 8 )Bethune-Cookman (17-12)
4) Hofstra (20-11) vs. 5) Nebraska (19-12)
3) Cleveland St (24-8 ) vs. 6) Fairfield (24-7)
2) Harvard (21-6) vs. 7) Vermont (23-8 )

SOUTH
1) Georgia (21-11) vs. 8 )Florida Atlantic (19-10)
4) Dayton (22-13) vs. 5) California (17-14)
3) Wichita St (23-8 ) vs. 6) Charleston (24-10)
2) VCU (23-11) vs. 7) Coastal Carolina (24-5)

MIDWEST
1) Missouri St (25-8 ) vs. 8 )McNeese St (17-11)
4) Southern Miss (19-10) vs. 5) New Mexico (20-12)
3) Washington St (19-12) vs. 7) Milwaukee (19-13)
2) UAB (22-8 ) vs. 7) Murray St (21-8 )

WEST
1) USC (19-14) vs. 8 )Long Beach St (20-11)
4) Baylor (17-13) vs. 5) Tulsa (19-13)
3) Colorado St (18-12) vs. 6) Kent St (22-11)
2) UTEP (24-9) vs. 7) Texas Southern (19-12)

Note: The geography of these brackets are quite screwy. I don't see how the NIT keeps teams from major road trips without majorly comprimising the seeds of the teams in the field.
 
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