We're not alone...

[BradleyBrave]

With SM and TB out for the season, 4th place in the MVC would be an amazing achievement well beyond anything like reasonable expectations. It's not a "culmination year" when 2/3 of the culminating parts are not playing.

I don't think top 4 would be out of the question if our players were MVC-caliber. Have you seen the league this year? I'm not even convinced yet that we'll play in. How many other teams have two 5th year starting guards, two 4th year big men, and two sophomores who logged significant minutes last year? That's 6 players with significant DI experience. Players 7-8 are a highly-touted redshirt freshman big man and a true freshman guard that's shown he can contribute as a first year player. On the surface, wouldn't you think that team would be deep enough to at least be among the top 4 teams in our league? I'd think the best recruiter we've had in decades would be able to get that done at a minimum. Andrew Warren is still an all-conference caliber player. As other posters have said, we have 12 scholarships, not 5. You say 2/3 of the 'culminating parts; if parts 4-8 aren't significant then your team isn't very good to begin with. I am willing to concede that without 2 of our top players that winning the league is probably unreasonable. I'm not willing to concede we should be playing at the level of Evansville and Drake. I hold our program to a higher standard than that.

 

[thefish7]

I don't think top 4 would be out of the question if our players were MVC-caliber. Have you seen the league this year? I'm not even convinced yet that we'll play in. How many other teams have two 5th year starting guards, two 4th year big men, and two sophomores who logged significant minutes last year? That's 6 players with significant DI experience. Players 7-8 are a highly-touted redshirt freshman big man and a true freshman guard that's shown he can contribute as a first year player. On the surface, wouldn't you think that team would be deep enough to at least be among the top 4 teams in our league? I'd think the best recruiter we've had in decades would be able to get that done at a minimum. Andrew Warren is still an all-conference caliber player. As other posters have said, we have 12 scholarships, not 5. You say 2/3 of the 'culminating parts; if parts 4-8 aren't significant then your team isn't very good to begin with. I am willing to concede that without 2 of our top players that winning the league is probably unreasonable. I'm not willing to concede we should be playing at the level of Evansville and Drake. I hold our program to a higher standard than that.

First thing worth mentioning here, I'm not in either "camp," so don't try your anti-spin spin rhetoric with me. I've never said that Les is the best recruiter in decades. This "culmination" language comes from two preseason all-MVC candidate senior guards and Taylor Brown, a talented junior. Two of those are gone, hence 2/3. It's pretty easy math to substitute their production for numbers of players getting their minutes and adjust our record accordingly.

Adjusting expectations is also something a reasonable fan does when 2/3 of the teams best scoring options disappear. I don't have the time or inclination to go find myriad examples of teams that lost two of their three best players and tell you what the results were, but I have this overwhelming feeling that you'd find crystal clear evidence how teams in those circumstances perform in general.

The league does appear down this season, and anything's possible-- and in any case I'm a glass half full kind of guy (as you can see in my "Where I think we stand" post). I won't be happy with a poor league finish, but I'm also not trying to create a biased reality in which everything means the coach gets fired-- which is what you want. Based on the play this season, in SM's last game and after, I'd be delighted with an over .500 conference record and a top half finish. That to me would be a solid coaching achievement. I'll reserve judgment on whacking Coach Les for the post season, when analysis of that question is more relevant.

 

[thefish7]

That was probably too harsh, BradleyBrave, sorry. But I'm tired of all the spin on "either side" of the Les thing, and I'm also not involved in it.

 

[BradleyBrave]

First thing worth mentioning here, I'm not in either "camp," so don't try your anti-spin spin rhetoric with me. I've never said that Les is the best recruiter in decades. This "culmination" language comes from two preseason all-MVC candidate senior guards and Taylor Brown, a talented junior. Two of those are gone, hence 2/3. It's pretty easy math to substitute their production for numbers of players getting their minutes and adjust our record accordingly.

Adjusting expectations is also something a reasonable fan does when 2/3 of the teams best scoring options disappear. I don't have the time or inclination to go find myriad examples of teams that lost two of their three best players and tell you what the results were, but I have this overwhelming feeling that you'd find crystal clear evidence how teams in those circumstances perform in general.

The league does appear down this season, and anything's possible-- and in any case I'm a glass half full kind of guy (as you can see in my "Where I think we stand" post). I won't be happy with a poor league finish, but I'm also not trying to create a biased reality in which everything means the coach gets fired-- which is what you want. Based on the play this season, in SM's last game and after, I'd be delighted with an over .500 conference record and a top half finish. That to me would be a solid coaching achievement. I'll reserve judgment on whacking Coach Les for the post season, when analysis of that question is more relevant.

Sorry fish...didn't intend for it to be read like disagreement with you. Just kind of voicing my overall view. It came off the wrong way.

What's most disappointing is that all we had to do is beat EIU and WCU and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

 

[amckillip]

The league does appear down this season, and anything's possible-- and in any case I'm a glass half full kind of guy (as you can see in my "Where I think we stand" post). I won't be happy with a poor league finish, but I'm also not trying to create a biased reality in which everything means the coach gets fired-- which is what you want. Based on the play this season, in SM's last game and after, I'd be delighted with an over .500 conference record and a top half finish. That to me would be a solid coaching achievement. I'll reserve judgment on whacking Coach Les for the post season, when analysis of that question is more relevant.

I agree, with the early part of your assessment, though maybe not quite as optimistic with TB and SM. The second part I think is a bit forward. I don't think BB is by any means a huge fan of JL, but he is almost always reasonable in that he strongly advocates waiting until the end of the season to make a decision on what to do with the coach. I think he will likely come to the conclusion that it's time to move on, and he may be justified, but I don't think he's calling for JL's head now. And I do know he recognizes that while JL may not be the answer, there is some doubt as to whether or not the next coach would be either :/

 

[real fan]

I don't think top 4 would be out of the question if our players were MVC-caliber. Have you seen the league this year? I'm not even convinced yet that we'll play in. How many other teams have two 5th year starting guards, two 4th year big men, and two sophomores who logged significant minutes last year? That's 6 players with significant DI experience. Players 7-8 are a highly-touted redshirt freshman big man and a true freshman guard that's shown he can contribute as a first year player. On the surface, wouldn't you think that team would be deep enough to at least be among the top 4 teams in our league? I'd think the best recruiter we've had in decades would be able to get that done at a minimum. Andrew Warren is still an all-conference caliber player. As other posters have said, we have 12 scholarships, not 5. You say 2/3 of the 'culminating parts; if parts 4-8 aren't significant then your team isn't very good to begin with. I am willing to concede that without 2 of our top players that winning the league is probably unreasonable. I'm not willing to concede we should be playing at the level of Evansville and Drake. I hold our program to a higher standard than that.

That is why I am disappointed in that we still have a lot of experience left and a freshman that contributes , no reason why we cannot finish 4th even without those 2 great players.

 

[amckillip]

That was probably too harsh, BradleyBrave, sorry. But I'm tired of all the spin on "either side" of the Les thing, and I'm also not involved in it.

Classy.

 

[BradleyBrave]

I agree, with the early part of your assessment, though maybe not quite as optimistic with TB and SM. The second part I think is a bit forward. I don't think BB is by any means a huge fan of JL, but he almost always reasonable in the regard to he strongly advocates waiting until the end of the season to make a decision on what to do with the coach. I think he will likely come to the conclusion that it's time to move on, and he may be justified, but I don't think he's calling for JL's head now. And I do know he recognizes that while JL may not be the answer, there is some doubt as to whether or not the next coach would be either :/

Agreed. Definitely not calling for the coach's head now. It would be a pointless exercise that would set us back even farther. Let's bottom out in December for once instead of February and see what happens when we get into league play. There's a big collection of crap in our league this year, so who knows. Maybe they needed humbling. They've gotten one the past two weeks, and will get another on Wednesday. Lotta basketball left.

 

[thefish7]

Sorry fish...didn't intend for it to be read like disagreement with you. Just kind of voicing my overall view. It came off the wrong way.

What's most disappointing is that all we had to do is beat EIU and WCU and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

I know, or figured it out. Sorry again. I've just been very frustrated with our little board lately. It's a good microcosm of our political climate. Impossible to exchange ideas because of the constant noise of the polarized, not-going-to-bother-to-listen ends of the spectrum.

 

[AZ BU Fan]

We are not alone? According to Tornado we are, oh wait, sorry. That was the UFO's thread....:lol:

I posted a dissertation on the Where We Stand Thread about BU in 2011. Won't repeat it here. It pretty much says WYSIWYG from the BU roster this year. BU's best hope for 'game changing' improvement will have to come from DSE, WL, AD, and the recruits JL has coming after.

 

[CubbieBear]

yeh your right...we were destined....so if we finish in the top 4 now your a happy camper?

Even though the Valley is not real good again this year, we will not be top 4. I honestly don't believe we will be better until we make a change at the top, and the longer we wait, the more frustrating it becomes for me. Just my opinion (and I would like to be wrong)