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Valley RPI update

B

Bravesfan

New member
According to the latest realtimerpi.com figures, the Valley has moved back up to fifth in the RPI, with Bradley up to 71, SIU up to 48, and even Evansville moving up from 266 to 234 just for playing a great Valpo team on the road. This is the type of night we needed even without the sweep. SIU is now on the fringe of at-large territory, while Bradley is climbing closer to respectibility. Let's hope the Valley can keep this up to the end of the non-conference season. A high enough conference RPI ensures at least two if not three teams making the NCAA Tournament.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_mvc_Men.html
 
Here are the current Sagarin ratings for Bradley opponents:

Non-conference
125 - Illinois-Chicago (L, 75-84)
142 - Iowa State (W, 65-56)
328 - Maryland-Eastern Shore (W, 98-71)
316 - Florida Gulf Coast (W, 82-74)
155 - Iowa (W, 67-56)
18 - Vanderbilt (L, 86-95)
194 - Loyola-Chicago (W, 64-47)
249 - Southeast Missouri State (W, 90-72)
10 - Michigan State (L, 61-66)
130 - Wright State (W, 72-65)
21 - Butler
80 - VCU

Missouri Valley
32 - Creighton
47 - Southern Illinois
57 - Missouri State
63 - Drake
65 - Bradley
92 - Northern Iowa
102 - Wichita State
104 - Illinois State
157 - Indiana State
173 - Evansville
 
The MVC will pose a very difficult problem to the Selection Committee come March.

It appears (at least at this point) we'll have as many as 4-5 teams with at-large worthy RPI's.

However:

-The league's biggest win is at home against St. Mary's. I'm not throwing the Gaels under the bus as they are likely an NCAA tournament team. But the league lacks any "marquee" wins that will make the committee take notice.

-Despite the lack of "marquee" wins, it does not appear any of the potential at-large candidates will have a loss that could be marked as "bad" (outside the RPI 150).

What this opens up is the "manipulating the RPI" argument. It would be easier with the Michigan State, Vandy, Indiana, or Xavier win. . .we've had those in the past. Not this year.
 
squirrel said:
The MVC will pose a very difficult problem to the Selection Committee come March.

It appears (at least at this point) we'll have as many as 4-5 teams with at-large worthy RPI's.

However:

-The league's biggest win is at home against St. Mary's. I'm not throwing the Gaels under the bus as they are likely an NCAA tournament team. But the league lacks any "marquee" wins that will make the committee take notice.

-Despite the lack of "marquee" wins, it does not appear any of the potential at-large candidates will have a loss that could be marked as "bad" (outside the RPI 150).

What this opens up is the "manipulating the RPI" argument. It would be easier with the Michigan State, Vandy, Indiana, or Xavier win. . .we've had those in the past. Not this year.
Click to expand...

I agree. Without the 'marquee' wins, it will be harder to argue for the league despite computer numbers that say otherwise. This is why I think, despite my feelings against it as a whole, the BracketBuster could be important for us and the league this year. If the MVC can at least separate itself as the 'King' of the mid-major leagues, we can take away bids from leagues like the Horizon, Colonial, SoCon, Sun Belt, WAC, A-10, Mountain West, and dare I say C-USA (Sorry Tom Penders, but your league sans Memphis is about the 20th best league in America).
 
We certainly can't afford to go 4-6, 5-5, or even 6-4 and expect to get away with it in anymore.

For the teams we play in the BB, it is their Super Bowl and last chance to win a ticket to the Dance.

The Valley must repeatedly go 8-2 or better in the thing to take that next step to national recognition and respectability. Otherwise we will remain an easy target.

I'll have to take a look at the listings for teams again. I just know I don't want any more Horizon League teams this year.
 
squirrel said:
We certainly can't afford to go 4-6, 5-5, or even 6-4 and expect to get away with it in anymore.

For the teams we play in the BB, it is their Super Bowl and last chance to win a ticket to the Dance.

The Valley must repeatedly go 8-2 or better in the thing to take that next step to national recognition and respectability. Otherwise we will remain an easy target.

I'll have to take a look at the listings for teams again. I just know I don't want any more Horizon League teams this year.
Click to expand...


Just curious squirrel. Do you think that at the very worst we will get at least two teams into the tournament if the Valley finishes in the top 6 or 7? Or do you think we still may be at risk for just one bid even if the Valley finishes that high?
 
Bravesfan said:
Just curious squirrel. Do you think that at the very worst we will get at least two teams into the tournament if the Valley finishes in the top 6 or 7? Or do you think we still may be at risk for just one bid even if the Valley finishes that high?
Click to expand...

I posted this earlier in the week, but the MVC hasn't been a 1 bid league since 1998, when ISU dominated the league and tournament, and our league RPI was very, very bad. We have gotten multiple bids with league RPI's as high as 14, so the odds of us being a 1 bid league with the quality of teams we have I would say is very, very slim.
 
Right now, no matter how good our RPI's are at the end of the year, everybody at best will have Missouri State's 2006 NCAA resume, and look what that got them.

What that translates into bids, I wouldn't have the slightest clue. But it does tell me to prepare for one bid, if we only have one team in the RPI 30 with no "marquee" wins to boast about.

Now it is possible that we could get St. Mary's, VCU, Butler, and Davidson for our Bracket Buster opponents who are known and respected teams this year, but unless we run the table against them, the league still won't have that "wow" component.

Whether or not that will hurt in March remains to be seen.

But people need to come to terms with the potential to only have one bid. I know we're better than that, but I have little confidence the committee knows that, or will at least demand greater supporting evidence.

Realistically, we should be a 2-3 bid league. But there will need to be some upper-division separation in the league standings to get those top RPIs as high as possible.

And right now, you could throw SIU, ISU, CU, BU, MSU, and Drake in a bag and handpick the order of finish better than anyone could predict it, which means we'll likely have another logjam.
 
squirrel said:
Right now, no matter how good our RPI's are at the end of the year, everybody at best will have Missouri State's 2006 NCAA resume, and look what that got them.

What that translates into bids, I wouldn't have the slightest clue. But it does tell me to prepare for one bid, if we only have one team in the RPI 30 with no "marquee" wins to boast about.

Now it is possible that we could get St. Mary's, VCU, Butler, and Davidson for our Bracket Buster opponents who are known and respected teams this year, but unless we run the table against them, the league still won't have that "wow" component.

Whether or not that will hurt in March remains to be seen.

But people need to come to terms with the potential to only have one bid. I know we're better than that, but I have little confidence the committee knows that, or will at least demand greater supporting evidence.

Realistically, we should be a 2-3 bid league. But there will need to be some upper-division separation in the league standings to get those top RPIs as high as possible.

And right now, you could throw SIU, ISU, CU, BU, MSU, and Drake in a bag and handpick the order of finish better than anyone could predict it, which means we'll likely have another logjam.
Click to expand...

This is all going under the assumption that the committee disregards the RPI as much as they did last year. Whether or not the big boys want to admit it, the NCAA wants the RPI to mean 'something'. Otherwise, they wouldn't publish it on their website (which was a closely guarded secret until recently), and wouldn't note it next to every team when they're being shown live on Selection Sunday. I don't think they'll disregard it as much this year, but only time will tell.
 
squirrel said:
Right now, no matter how good our RPI's are at the end of the year, everybody at best will have Missouri State's 2006 NCAA resume, and look what that got them.

What that translates into bids, I wouldn't have the slightest clue. But it does tell me to prepare for one bid, if we only have one team in the RPI 30 with no "marquee" wins to boast about.

Now it is possible that we could get St. Mary's, VCU, Butler, and Davidson for our Bracket Buster opponents who are known and respected teams this year, but unless we run the table against them, the league still won't have that "wow" component.

Whether or not that will hurt in March remains to be seen.

But people need to come to terms with the potential to only have one bid. I know we're better than that, but I have little confidence the committee knows that, or will at least demand greater supporting evidence.

Realistically, we should be a 2-3 bid league. But there will need to be some upper-division separation in the league standings to get those top RPIs as high as possible.

And right now, you could throw SIU, ISU, CU, BU, MSU, and Drake in a bag and handpick the order of finish better than anyone could predict it, which means we'll likely have another logjam.
Click to expand...


I could not disagree with you more squirrel. To even think that we would be a one bid league (assuming we finish in the top 7 or so) is not something I would think most people would assume. Yes the committee does some strange things from time to time, but they do reward leagues with multiple bids when the leagues finish strong in the RPI. I know commentators say all the time that teams earn bids, not conferences. However, that is not entirely true.

Case in point: Back in 2005, the head of the selection committee was interviewed by Andy Katz regarding why first place Air Force was given an at large bid ahead of say Missouri St when they had a weak resume and a borderline RPI. He stated that Air Force was given the bid because the Mountain West Conference was the #8 conference and he wanted to reward them with a second bid. Add to this that I cannot recall a point, ever, that a top 8 conference did not earn multiple bids. If I'm wrong on that point, then someone can correct me. But I don't really recall that ever happening, and the only time that might happen down the road is if the top team is dominant and the rest of the teams finished a game or two over .500.

My point I'm trying to make is that the chances of the Valley being denied multiple bids is highly unlikely if we finish amongst the top 8 conferences, this conclusion being based on historical data. Also, a very important point to keep in mind is that conferences that rank that high are usually at a point where there are several teams that could make a case for an NCAA tournament bid in these conferences. Therefore, there are several opportunities for teams to earn marquee wins WITHIN their own conference that could sit as well with the selection committee as an early season win against Michigan St or Butler. If Bradley for example beats SIU and Creighton at least once each, they have already made a better case for an at large bid then they did last year when they were only able to beat SIU once and Creighton none.

So basically I think this panic amongst you and some other posters on this board is a little premature and probably not warranted at all, barring a total collapse during these last few weeks of non-conference play and a 2-8 record in the Bracket Buster. The numbers don't guarantee 3 or more bids at this time, but they don't foreshadow only one bid either. I think a quick look at history will show the numbers are definately on our side for two bids, with or without a lot of non-conference marquee wins. And I do think most of us will be pretty happy come Selection Sunday!
 
I said by rights we should be a 2-3 bid league.

Conference RPI means nothing. Conferences don't win bids, teams do. Whether or not any of our teams profiles will meet at-large standards is yet to be seen. But without any standout wins, we have little ammo, and if I was on the selection committee, I would have trouble .

I'm not saying we are a going to be a one bid league, just trying to prepare people for the possibility. And I won't be surprised if we are.

I will admit I was wrong that the league would be down this year, and media is picking up on the fact we are rated high again, and not losing games we shouldn't.

But if I'm on the committee, I have real trouble including any of our teams based on their non-conference performance--as that is the biggest opportunity you have to stand out.
 
squirrel said:
I said by rights we should be a 2-3 bid league.

Conference RPI means nothing. Conferences don't win bids, teams do. Whether or not any of our teams profiles will meet at-large standards is yet to be seen. But without any standout wins, we have little ammo, and if I was on the selection committee, I would have trouble .

I'm not saying we are a going to be a one bid league, just trying to prepare people for the possibility. And I won't be surprised if we are.

I will admit I was wrong that the league would be down this year, and media is picking up on the fact we are rated high again, and not losing games we shouldn't.

But if I'm on the committee, I have real trouble including any of our teams based on their non-conference performance--as that is the biggest opportunity you have to stand out.
Click to expand...


Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. :)

I just believe that the conference RPI means more than many of these pundants let on. And using the same logic, I guess that means the Big Ten should only receive one to two bids since most of their teams don't have marquee wins either, and the Big Ten profile is currently eerily similar to the Valley's. But of course you know that won't happen, and the Big Ten will get at the absolute worst three, but most likely four to five bids while the Valley gets at best three, but most likely only two bids.

Aaah! You've gotta love perception versus reality!
 
Bravesfan said:
Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. :)

I just believe that the conference RPI means more than many of these pundants let on. And using the same logic, I guess that means the Big Ten should only receive one to two bids since most of their teams don't have marquee wins either, and the Big Ten profile is currently eerily similar to the Valley's. But of course you know that won't happen, and the Big Ten will get at the absolute worst three, but most likely four to five bids while the Valley gets at best three, but most likely only two bids.

Aaah! You've gotta love perception versus reality!
Click to expand...

I don't think we disagree even. We probably will get 2-3 bids. Just saying I'm not going to be surprised if we are a one-bid league, and I won't tolerate anyone crying about it if it happens, because it is a possibility. Whether or not people want to believe it is the least of my concerns.
 
Everyone just cool down. Squirrel won't have any of it. I mean the man just won't tolerate it, so don't even start.
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