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Strength of Schedules - Year by Year Comparison

tornado

tornado

New member
Past 5-6 years, using Pomeroy's data, the non-conference SOS...last five years

.........09, 08, 07, 06, 05.......Five-year Average
BU---201, 89, 42, 74, 201..........121.4
CU---224, 170, 82, 144, 194.......162.8
DU---289, 142, 302, 104, 226.....212.6
UE---219, 319, 225, 301, 309.....274.6
ISU--210, 198, 236, 291, 282.....243.6
InSU-146, 107, 109, 298, 210.....174.0
MSU-251, 140, 135, 69, 227.......164.4
UNI--100, 250, 158, 102, 124.....147.0
SIU -59, 13, 20, 110, 50..............50.4
WSU-169, 247, 148, 95, 139.......159.6

Assessment.....SIU and Bradley have an average SOS better than the rough overall D-I average of about 150....

SOS's of around 150+ are maybe at best tolerable for year or so...but note that some schools are at 200 and higher year, after year, after year!! (pretty much just ISU and Evansville)

I am going out on a limb and saying that both SIU and ISU will have SOS's this year in the 300 range...thus their averages will drop a bunch.
ISU's six-year average will then drop to 260 or so, and SIU's will drop around 100....while I suspect BU's will stay about where it is.
 
Last edited:
Fine work!
I believe the fact that Bradley is near the top of the MVC in SOS goes back even farther than 2005. I checked SOS back to 2002 (using Jim Les' hiring as the cutoff), and Bradley was still #2 in the MVC in Non-conference SOS with SIU the #1 team.
 
well, that's true, but I intentionally left out the data too far back as I fully expected someone would get riled and claim that the first couple of Jim Les' years
the schedule would still show influence from the previous coach.

When all is said and done, here are the numbers that I think will be the SOS of the Valley teams this season
..these are just early projections based on the schedule info already released..


BU---85 (BYU, OSU, Iowa State, and possibly Utah and Ill!)
CU---102 (Dayton, Michigan, Marquette, Nebraska, New Mexico)
DU---121 (Iowa and Iowa State)
UE---299 (too bad, the return game from North Carolina isn't going to happen this season)
ISU--344 (could be the worst in D-I)
InSU-156 (I think we'll be surprised)
MSU-112 (Auburn, Tulsa, Arkansas)
UNI--141 (Iowa and Iowa State)
SIU -301 (Alabama State, San Diego - not San Diego State, SEMO, UT-Martin)
WSU-265 (something ominous going on...not a word yet on any game, and no major school has them as an opponent...so this could be bad)
 
tornado said:
.........09, 08, 07, 06, 05.......Five-year Average
BU---201
ISU--210
Click to expand...

This is interesting. :p

Last year ISU's schedule was ripped on by everybody, especially a bunch of posters here.

Am I reading that correctly that last year BU and ISU were only seperated by 9 spots for non-conference SOS?

9 spots is negligible.

Also if I am reading Tornado's data correctly, ISU had a tougher schedule than Creighton, Drake, Evansville and MO State (negligible with the Bears).

So in reality, ISU had the 5th toughest MVC non-conference schedule last season, with BU having the 4th toughest.
 
so you're defending ISU's scheduling and comparing it favorably to BU's?

ISU's numbers were "saved" by Niagara and you didn't have a thing to do with "scheduling" that one.
 
tornado said:
so you're defending ISU's scheduling and comparing it favorably to BU's?
Click to expand...

I am just looking at the data you supplied.

Last year's nonconference SOS #'s

BU #201
ISU # 210

My Illinois State math tells me they are only seperated by 9 spots. :D
 
tornado said:
?

ISU's numbers were "saved" by Niagara and you didn't have a thing to do with "scheduling" that one.
Click to expand...

Well ISU put themselves in position to get a team like Niagara as a bracket buster foe.

So saying they didn't have anything to do with it, wouldn't be completely true.

ISU was in the top 50-60 when bracket buster match-ups were announced. They had every right to get a match-up with a top 50-60 team.
 
the data speaks for itself, and in a couple more weeks, it'll even speak louder..

How many national writers (Gary Parrish, Jeff Goodman, Dick Vitale) are going to unload on ISU when they go 10-2 against those opponents you have now for 2009-2010?
After two consecutive seasons of winning 24-25 games and getting ridiculed, you'd think they'd do everything in creation to avoid doing it again....but not only did they do it again, they did it again IN SPADES! *

sadly, many Redbird fans agree...it is utter embarrassment.
 
There will probably be criticism of Bradley's schedule, but it is far better than ISU's.
This all shows the dificulty midmajors have with scheduling.

Comparison-
When Bradley needed to add one more home game, they went out and got Western Carolina, who will be a decent non-conference team this year.
Similarly, ISU needed one more home game after loading up with all the other cupcakes they have, and they went out and got Grambling State, who is worse than all the other woeful teams on their schedule, and who has a chance to be the worst Division I school in the country this year.
It really looks as if Tim Jankovich's philosophy is, "If we have to play someone, let's play the worst team we can get to play us".
 
Ok..you wanna speak negligible....

Last year, ISU won 24 games...they're touting it as one of the best year's ever in their history..
--but Bradley won 21...so that's just a 3 game difference when BU played Florida, Michigan State, Butler (we coulda gone out and gotten Grambling & Winston Salem)
..conclusion - NEGLIGIBLE DIFFERENCE

The year before, ISU won 25 games....called by some as their best year ever in 100 years!!
But Bradley won 21...so again....NEGLIGIBLE DIFFERENCE (GIVEN D-II's on ISU's schedule)

In the Osiris Eldridge era....three years...ISU has won 64 games, while Bradley has won.....64 games. That's right, completely negligible...so that even during an era when ISU has had unprecedented back to back 25 and 24 win seasons, their performance doesn't really differ from BU's except negligibly.

ISU's average RPI in the Osiris Eldridge era (3 years)....
ISU = 74
BU = 80
...again........how much more negligible can you get?? ;)
 
cpacmel said:
I am just looking at the data you supplied.

Last year's nonconference SOS #'s

BU #201
ISU # 210

My Illinois State math tells me they are only seperated by 9 spots. :D
Click to expand...

If this is your best attempt to justify ISU's non-conference schedule last year, you have failed miserably. Bradley was not the team that was left out of the NCAA tournament because of their nonconference schedule, ISU was. That makes 2 years in a row that ISU's at-large chances have been eliminated solely because of their embarrassingly weak schedule, and this year will be the 3rd year in a row.
 
Honestly....all Valley teams need to work as hard as they can to upgrade schedules, as I can assure you Bradley has been doing...because it helps the entire league!
But for some odd reason, I DO NOT get the same feeling about the folks at ISU, and certainly the other people posting on RBF don't think so either.
This is the 3rd year win a row with teams so bad you'd have been hard pressed to land so many 300+ RPI teams so it must be by intent and design.
So while all other Valley teams are working hard to get better scheduling, ISU appears to be working hard in the exact opposite direction to get patsies on their home and even road non-conference schedules.
 
tornado said:
well, that's true, but I intentionally left out the data too far back as I fully expected someone would get riled and claim that the first couple of Jim Les' years
the schedule would still show influence from the previous coach.

When all is said and done, here are the numbers that I think will be the SOS of the Valley teams this season
..these are just early projections based on the schedule info already released..


BU---85 (BYU, OSU, Iowa State, and possibly Utah and Ill!)
CU---102 (Dayton, Michigan, Marquette, Nebraska, New Mexico)
DU---121 (Iowa and Iowa State)
UE---299 (too bad, the return game from North Carolina isn't going to happen this season)
ISU--344 (could be the worst in D-I)
InSU-156 (I think we'll be surprised)
MSU-112 (Auburn, Tulsa, Arkansas)
UNI--141 (Iowa and Iowa State)
SIU -301 (Alabama State, San Diego - not San Diego State, SEMO, UT-Martin)
WSU-265 (something ominous going on...not a word yet on any game, and no major school has them as an opponent...so this could be bad)
Click to expand...


Wichita State's schedule will be release sometime this week after a few TV times are set. The schedule will include the Shockers playing Pittsburgh in the CBE Classic followed by either Texas or Iowa. They will also play TCU and Texas Tech at home.
 
tropicalshox said:
Wichita State's schedule will be release sometime this week after a few TV times are set. The schedule will include the Shockers playing Pittsburgh in the CBE Classic followed by either Texas or Iowa. They will also play TCU and Texas Tech at home.
Click to expand...

That sounds good, hope you win all of them. Go Shockers, I've always liked the Shockers:D You are one of my favorite Valley teams! But not my top favorite, BU is going to be tough to beat this season:D
 
tropicalshox said:
Wichita State's schedule will be release sometime this week after a few TV times are set. The schedule will include the Shockers playing Pittsburgh in the CBE Classic followed by either Texas or Iowa. They will also play TCU and Texas Tech at home.
Click to expand...

good, I am encouraged....I was worried that the delay was because of something bad...
 
And ISU was better then BU last year and went to the NIT AND the finals of the MVC.

BU had a tougher sked and another mediocre year.

So I ask, does scheduling make ALL that much difference?


I suppose a stronger schedule for ISU (you know about 8 points higher:)) would have given them more at large consideration but the bottom line is, WHATEVER the sked, you gotta win and the rest takes care of itself.

PM me if you want to here more....
 
dogsrus said:
And ISU was better then BU last year and went to the NIT AND the finals of the MVC.

BU had a tougher sked and another mediocre year.

So I ask, does scheduling make ALL that much difference?


I suppose a stronger schedule for ISU (you know about 8 points higher:)) would have given them more at large consideration but the bottom line is, WHATEVER the sked, you gotta win and the rest takes care of itself.

PM me if you want to here more....
Click to expand...

I think the point is that with a weak schedule winning isn't enough. ISU has won most of their noncon games the last two years and gotten left out of the dance because they didn't put themselves in a position to get a bid by winning.
 
Just look at all those '09 numbers. That's just brutal across the board.



Let's remember: No matter a team's intentions with the non-con SoS, sometimes the numbers don't go your way. The best intentions to schedule hard can go array and your SoS can go south, and the intention to schedule down and build a terrible SoS may actually result in lucking out a bit.

I'm not saying BU tried to schedule up and got unlucky, and I'm not saying ISU actually got relatively lucky with schedule conference champions of bad, bad conferences to jump from the 300s to the 200s....I'm just sayin' :)
 
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