Pomeroy predictions are out

[Buesch N Chips]

Here are the predictions:

Sun Nov 13 Missouri Kansas City W, 74-60
Wed Nov 16 Southeast Missouri St. W, 73-63
Sat Nov 19 North Dakota W, 74-63
Tue Nov 22 Wofford W, 68-63
Fri Nov 25 Wisconsin L, 68-55
Sat Dec 3 Wyoming W, 69-66
Tue Dec 6 Northeastern W, 67-66
Thu Dec 15 George Washington L, 68-61
Sat Dec 17 Drexel L, 67-57
Tue Dec 20 Western Carolina W, 72-66
Thu Dec 22 Michigan L, 70-56
Wed Dec 28 Wichita St. L, 70-64
Sat Dec 31 Indiana St. L, 70-62
Wed Jan 4 Southern Illinois W, 67-61
Sat Jan 7 Creighton L, 69-67
Tue Jan 10 Drake L, 70-64
Fri Jan 13 Wichita St. L, 74-61
Sun Jan 15 Northern Iowa L, 63-60
Wed Jan 18 Evansville L, 70-65
Sat Jan 21 Missouri St. L, 67-66
Tue Jan 24 Southern Illinois L, 64-63
Sat Jan 28 Creighton L, 73-63
Wed Feb 1 Evansville W, 68-66
Sat Feb 4 Illinois St. L, 64-61
Wed Feb 8 Indiana St. L, 66-65
Sun Feb 12 Missouri St. L, 70-62
Wed Feb 15 Drake W, 67-66
Wed Feb 22 Northern Iowa L, 66-57
Sat Feb 25 Illinois St. W, 64-60

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Bradley

 

[Buesch N Chips]

They have us picked 8th

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=MVC

 

[Beninator]

Probably a plus or minus two game swing, but the predictions seem about right.

 

[LittleBrave]

7 or 8 non-conf. wins, and only 4 conference wins?
Hmmm.

If this team wins that many non-conf. games, they will surely match their win total in conference.

 

[buschsquirrel2011]

To clarify--these are projections based on numbers, data, computer info, etc. Different from human predictions. Not a big deal...however I personally put more weight on projections over predictions.

If Bradley comes close to this projection it has been a good season.

 

[Buesch N Chips]

7 or 8 non-conf. wins, and only 4 conference wins?
Hmmm.

If this team wins that many non-conf. games, they will surely match their win total in conference.

Conference is up this year.

 

[Beninator]

A minor point, but I think that anyone who follows Pomeroy understands that he uses statistical analysis to formulate his "projections."

That being said, the word "prediction" is not incorrect either. As a matter of fact, Pomeroy uses the word "prediction" numerous times in his blog to describe his ratings.

http://kenpom.com/blog/

"One change this season involved the computation of the Pythagorean winning percentage. Calibration of last year’s predictions revealed that 10.25 is the best exponent to use for the purpose of the game probabilities. This should provide a more realistic forecast of end-of-season records now and especially as the games start and real data goes into the system. This does not affect the calculations of any other statistics."

and this headline on his blog:

"Predicting John Henson’s free throw percentage
09.26.11

Last season, North Carolina’s John Henson made 47.9% of his 142 free throw attempts. What is a reasonable expectation for Henson’s free throw percentage this season?"................

 

[jasonpeoria911]

I have a feeling Bradley will win 4 or 5 more games than what Pomeroy is predicting and will finish in 5th or 6th. The average points allowed and points scored will usually be in the 70's each game with the type of offense Ford runs. This is all pending an injury free season of course.

Jason

 

[electricmayhem]

His prediction chart doesn't take into consideration the Saturday night game in Chicago against either BYU or Nevada.

Other than that, I don't think it's too far off...

 

[Buesch N Chips]

I believe those predictions will change after every game by either us or our opponents. I could spend hours on that site.

1 non-home win. Wyoming.

 

[amckillip]

His prediction chart doesn't take into consideration the Saturday night game in Chicago against either BYU or Nevada.

Other than that, I don't think it's too far off...

Nor does it include the BracketBuster, but I think both ommisions make sense at this point.

 

[shaunguth]

I have a feeling Bradley will win 4 or 5 more games than what Pomeroy is predicting and will finish in 5th or 6th. The average points allowed and points scored will usually be in the 70's each game with the type of offense Ford runs. This is all pending an injury free season of course.

Jason

I agree, which is exactly why I put absolutely no stock in these numbers. These numbers have us averaging 64.55/game compared to last season's 64.88/game. They also have scoring 70+ just 4 times. Last year that happened 6 times. So much for the new uptempo system.....doesn't seem too much different.

 

[Buesch N Chips]

I have a feeling Bradley will win 4 or 5 more games than what Pomeroy is predicting and will finish in 5th or 6th. The average points allowed and points scored will usually be in the 70's each game with the type of offense Ford runs. This is all pending an injury free season of course.

Jason

You also need to remember that Pomeroy feels the same way. The predict us at 13-16 with 7-11 conference. Individual game anlaysis shows us favored to win 11 and 4, but their season prediction is 13 and 7.