OT-be careful

[BU RICK]

I'm not telling anyone what to do because I could be wrong...so don't listen to me...that's my disclaimer, but I've been following the markets for many many years and it sure seems to me that we may be setting up for a major sell-off. The tragedy in Japan, our own debt, what's going on in the Middle East....I don't have much so I've gone mostly conservative...to cash and set up a couple short positions. Don't get caught-up in basketball and not follow the news.

Go Braves

 

[Da Coach]

I am normally as conservative as they come with investing my money, but I don't agree with this outlook. I don't see the issues of the earthquake or the nuclear problem, or the middle east affecting things much now.

In fact today's Dow Jones is way up-
http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

[Beninator]

IMO, We have needed a correction for quite some time. So while I would not jump in right now, things could shape up nicely for a buying opportunity.

 

[SFP]

I'm not telling anyone what to do because I could be wrong...so don't listen to me...that's my disclaimer, but I've been following the markets for many many years and it sure seems to me that we may be setting up for a major sell-off. The tragedy in Japan, our own debt, what's going on in the Middle East....I don't have much so I've gone mostly conservative...to cash and set up a couple short positions. Don't get caught-up in basketball and not follow the news.

Go Braves

I'm in your camp because the middle east could explode and send oil prices by the middle of the summer over the $5 a gallon mark for most of the country. You can also expect a greater demand for oil from the Japanese market.

The Japanese situation with their nuclear power plant will have a psychological effect and could impact the market multiple ways. Japan's government count on their citizens to buy up their debt. Will they be in a position to do so? The other area that has not been talked about is European recovery is still very shaky.

 

[TylerDurden]

What ever happened to "buy low, sell high"?

 

[electricmayhem]

I'm not telling anyone what to do because I could be wrong...so don't listen to me...that's my disclaimer, but I've been following the markets for many many years and it sure seems to me that we may be setting up for a major sell-off. The tragedy in Japan, our own debt, what's going on in the Middle East....I don't have much so I've gone mostly conservative...to cash and set up a couple short positions. Don't get caught-up in basketball and not follow the news.

Go Braves

Rick - like anything else, it depends on your timeframe. I'm a financial planner by day and the fundamentals don't support a major sell-off at all. Corporate earnings are still rising, unemployment is diminishing, everything seems to be pointed in the right direction. Corrections are normal, and this one is happening very quickly - reaction to bad news.

I don't know how old you are, but if you have many years left until you need your investment money, you should stand pat and add more on the corrections. If you don't trust the stocks and funds you have bought, then buy something else. It just isn't smart to react to a small bit of news and lose sight of your goals.

 

[TheGuy]

That works great if the market will turn back to any form of normalcy in your lifetime. Right now its been buy low and sell lower to stop total loss. (its short selling time!!!).

Pick something conservative to invest a small amount of money into on a regular basis and you should be ok.

 

[TheGuy]

Rick - like anything else, it depends on your timeframe. I'm a financial planner by day and the fundamentals don't support a major sell-off at all. Corporate earnings are still rising, unemployment is diminishing, everything seems to be pointed in the right direction. Corrections are normal, and this one is happening very quickly - reaction to bad news.

I don't know how old you are, but if you have many years left until you need your investment money, you should stand pat and add more on the corrections. If you don't trust the stocks and funds you have bought, then buy something else. It just isn't smart to react to a small bit of news and lose sight of your goals.

Spoken like a true salesman. :lol:

I have just been proceeding with caution. The time to start doing some real risk investing will be when we see signs that we are just starting to pull out of this thing. I don't think we are close enough yet.

 

[Braves4Life]

....the fundamentals don't support a major sell-off at all. Corporate earnings are still rising, unemployment is diminishing, everything seems to be pointed in the right direction. Corrections are normal, and this one is happening very quickly - reaction to bad news.

While everyone makes great points I tend to agree with Mayhem. Beninator is correct that we are way overdue for a correction and the recent bad news has probably magnified and amplified this one. Watch for a stair step pattern down on the charts similar to the stair step pattern up that we've had since 4/09. If this pattern down continues to take out and close on new lows then we may be in trouble.

Right now, 9 of the 10 S&P sectors are oversold, and the most oversold is technology. Oversold conditions occur when a sector is at least one standard deviation below its 50-day moving average. When this happens, 90 percent of the time it's a buying opportunity.

I recently put some long term money back to work that I took off the table back in February. If I begin to see the upward stair step pattern continue I will slowly put more money back to work. Remember, we're still WAY off the November high on the S&P 500 of 1557 and 14,093 on the Dow. If you're a long term investor you probably don't need to worry since we are only up less than 20% over the past 10 years.

And I always ask those who are overly cautious and sounding the alarm for the exits: How much have you participated in the 100% market gains since 4/09?

 

[Beninator]

While everyone makes great points I tend to agree with Mayhem. Beninator is correct that we are way overdue for a correction and the recent bad news has probably magnified and amplified this one. Watch for a stair step pattern down on the charts similar to the stair step pattern up that we've had since 4/09. If this pattern down continues to take out and close on new lows then we may be in trouble.

Right now, 9 of the 10 S&P sectors are oversold, and the most oversold is technology. Oversold conditions occur when a sector is at least one standard deviation below its 50-day moving average. When this happens, 90 percent of the time it's a buying opportunity.

I recently put some long term money back to work that I took off the table back in February. If I begin to see the upward stair step pattern continue I will slowly put more money back to work. Remember, we're still WAY off the November high on the S&P 500 of 1557 and 14,093 on the Dow. If you're a long term investor you probably don't need to worry since we are only up less than 20% over the past 10 years.

And I always ask those who are overly cautious and sounding the alarm for the exits: How much have you participated in the 100% market gains since 4/09?

Very much agree here Braves4life. When people start jumping out of the market, I start to get very interested. I got extremely aggressive into the market in late 2008-early 2009 and that strategy paid off handsomely!

 

[electricmayhem]

And I always ask those who are overly cautious and sounding the alarm for the exits: How much have you participated in the 100% market gains since 4/09?

Exactly. The people who believe that the markets are bad probably haven't been in them in the last 24 months. They likely sold in March 2009 like a few of my clients that I couldn't talk out of it...

Be patient --

 

[BU RICK]

And I always ask those who are overly cautious and sounding the alarm for the exits: How much have you participated in the 100% market gains since 4/09?

I got a 102% return in 2009 into the first couple months of 2010 in my IRA getting in and out of 4 sector funds at different times...I just don't see a sector that's good right now other than maybe energy and maybe financial(if they start paying dividends again)...

It's just very recent that I've started to get 'cold feet', since Egypt and the other unrest in the Middle East and now whats happened to Japan and like SFP said the ongoing financial problems in some of the European countries and our own debt problems here...so it doesn't hurt to cut back, it's just a few clicks away from cutting back or buying again. So I made some clicks today and yesterday...am I right, I don't know

 

[Beninator]

I got a 102% return in 2009 into the first couple months of 2010 in my IRA getting in and out of 4 sector funds at different times...I just don't see a sector that's good right now other than maybe energy and maybe financial(if they start paying dividends again)...

It's just very recent that I've started to get 'cold feet', since Egypt and the other unrest in the Middle East and now whats happened to Japan and like SFP said the ongoing financial problems in some of the European countries and our own debt problems here...so it doesn't hurt to cut back, it's just a few clicks away from cutting back or buying again. So I made some clicks today and yesterday...am I right, I don't know

Well that is what makes a market. I have a different investing style, but the important thing is that we are making decisions to put money to work.

 

[SFP]

I'm fairly conservative and rarely sell because of Uncle Sam loves to take their fair share of your gains. I always take my taxes into consideration before I click sell. I even bought some 30 year Treasury bonds 20+ years ago!

 

[Missouri Brave]

I'm not telling anyone what to do because I could be wrong...so don't listen to me...that's my disclaimer, but I've been following the markets for many many years and it sure seems to me that we may be setting up for a major sell-off. The tragedy in Japan, our own debt, what's going on in the Middle East....I don't have much so I've gone mostly conservative...to cash and set up a couple short positions. Don't get caught-up in basketball and not follow the news.

Go Braves

Tend to agree with you, BU Rick, though it also depends what kind of investor you are. I work here on Wall Street in NYC and tend to be more of an individual stock picker instead of relying upon funds.

Your point about watching the news is well taken e.g. now is an optimal time, in my view, to buy (or add to positions in) key infrastructure stocks e.g. Caterpillar. It's painful to see what the people in Japan and the Middle East are going through right now but that doesn't mean we stop being smart with our money and stocks like CAT and the like feel like great buys right now (even if the stock has been on an absolute tear for months).

 

[SFP]

Maybe we need to start a BUfinancialFan.com site!

 

[Bravesfan]

I am normally as conservative as they come with investing my money, but I don't agree with this outlook. I don't see the issues of the earthquake or the nuclear problem, or the middle east affecting things much now.

In fact today's Dow Jones is way up-
http://finance.yahoo.com/

I agree we have been way overdue for a correction as well. That's very different than a crash though, and there really is no indication that the Dow would go down anywhere close to the levels of a couple of years ago. And even 10,000 might be a stretch. But I can see perhaps a short term drop of another 5 to 10%, which these days does not take very long to accomplish anyway. It will go back up like it always does, but the fact that the Dow has managed just a 1500 point gain in over a decade shows the market has been stuck in place for awhile. And I don't think $4 to $5 gas will help at all. But regarding the Japan earthquake and the history of the stock market after events like this, the stock market usually recovers quickly. It won't happen though until the threat of radiation subsides, but I think the media has overblown this as well, save for the people who live near the reactor, who are still in imminent danger.

 

[Beninator]

I'm fairly conservative and rarely sell because of Uncle Sam loves to take their fair share of your gains. I always take my taxes into consideration before I click sell. I even bought some 30 year Treasury bonds 20+ years ago!

Same here... That is why I like my dividends as well. There were some very nice "accidentally high" dividends in 08-09 like CAT that I feel very fortunate to have added to my portfolio!

 

[Braves4Life]

I'm fairly conservative and rarely sell because of Uncle Sam loves to take their fair share of your gains. I always take my taxes into consideration before I click sell. I even bought some 30 year Treasury bonds 20+ years ago!

You need to be saving your money in one of these plans SFP. That way you won't have to let the tax man hold a gun to your head every time you need/want to make a change......

http://moneywatch.bnet.com/retireme.../retirement-plans-for-the-self-employed/2936/

 

[Da Coach]

I'm not telling anyone what to do because I could be wrong...so don't listen to me...that's my disclaimer, but I've been following the markets for many many years and it sure seems to me that we may be setting up for a major sell-off. The tragedy in Japan, our own debt, what's going on in the Middle East....I don't have much so I've gone mostly conservative...to cash and set up a couple short positions. Don't get caught-up in basketball and not follow the news.

Go Braves

Has anyone noticed that since this thread started last Thursday, the Dow has skyrocketed each of the last 3 days of trading. It was up 178 points today to 12036.53, and up well over 100 points each of the last 3 days of trading, the best 3 day gain since last September.
Caterpillar set an all time high today, and closed at 107.59.