I think you summed it up pretty well. The MVCV hasn't missed being among the Top 10 conferences since 2003-2004 when it barely missed, finishing 11th.
I would also note that the 3 bottom dwellers of the MVC last year (Missouri State, Indiana State, and Drake) will all be greatly improved this year. And so will the 5-7 teams from last year, SIU, Evansville, and Wichita State. And I don't see any of the top 4 teams UNI, Creighton, Illinois State, and Bradley dropping off any, does anyone disagree? So it's hard to find a single MVC team that won't be as good or better this year than last year on paper. The games still need to be played, and we have to hope every team avoids injuries to key players, because the MVC teams don't have a stockpile of All-American players to bring off the benches. But I would be shocked if the MVC is not one of the Top 8 or 9 conferences again as it has been for the past 5 years.
Season.......Conference RPI rank for MVC
2008-2009.......9th
2007-2008.......8th
2006-2007.......6th
2005-2006.......6th
2004-2005.......8th