Personally, I agree that the NCAA is one backwards organization, but I think it is pretty funny hearing the differing opinions of the NCAA based on which boards you read. Here, and at most mid-majors, it is always about how the NCAA will never significantly punish a big school. On Big BCS school boards, like for instance, UK - it is always how the BCS purposefully targets them because they are "On top", and "a big deal".
Even knowing the NCAA's track record, it would be pretty amazing for the appeal to get through. Kentucky has already agreed that he was paid beyond his normal living expenses, so I'm not really sure on what grounds they will appeal. Being from the commonwealth of Kentucky, a ridiculous amount of my friends are going ballistic, especially given that my UofL cardinals won their appeal last month. But as you said, i don't suppose i'll be terribly surprised if something works out in their favor, not because its a BCS school, but because its just the dumbass NCAA