Here is Dave's latest column-
There's more to the Bradley men's team than poor shooting
http://www.pjstar.com/article/20141223/SPORTS/141229640/10962/SPORTS
I agree that Dave still has not taken off the rose colored glasses, and keeps trying harder and harder to find any sliver of a silver lining in Bradley's horrible 4-8 season. I agree that Bradley has played good defense for much of the season, but Dave's article completely ignores several other significant factors. Because opponents are shooting just 39.6% against Bradley, it does not automatically mean that it is all due to good defense, as Dave and Geno assume.
A review of some stats shows several other likely reasons for the improved defensive stats.
One is the poor quality of opponents- 9 of the 12 opponents shoot poorly and are below the D1 average, many of them well below.
Another reason is the good fortune of playing a team (Irvine) with their top shooter and scorer out. Mamdou Ndaiye is Irvine's leading scorer, and he shoots 70% from the field (2nd best in all of D1)
And yet another major reason is that Bradley padded their defensive stats by playing a weak Division III team (Eureka) as a regular-season game for the first time in anyone's memory. If the Eureka game (BU held them to a season-low 29.3%) is taken out of the equation, and it does not make much sense to put any stock in stats against a weak D3 team, our defensive FG% jumps up to 40.5%.
Here is a list of the teams we have played, with their shooting percentages versus Bradley, and for their entire season-
OPPONENT............FG% against Bradley......FG% for the season
Texas-Arlington................47.2%........................42.2%
Robert Morris...................40.9%........................40.1%
NC A&T...........................38.8%........................39.3%
Texas A&M-CC..................29.5%........................42.9%
TCU................................37.5%........................49.3%
St. Louis..........................48.9%........................41.5%
Central Michigan...............43.8%........................49.6%
Memphis.........................43.0%.........................44.0%
Kansas State...................35.3%.........................48.0%
Eureka............................29.3%........................37.9%
UC Irvine........................40.9%.........................46.4%
Arkansas-LR.....................39.5%.........................41.5%
As can be seen, Bradley has played some really poor shooting teams. Only 4 of their 12 opponents shoot better than 44%.
44.2% is the average FG% among Division I teams.
Bradley held their opponent to a significantly lower shooting percentage than their average in just half the games, 6 out of 12- against Texas A&M-CC, TCU, CMU, Kansas State, Eureka, and Irvine (but we still lost 3 of those games). But in the other 6 games, Bradley's opponent shot better or within 1% of their season average.
Also in Dave's column, the logic used by Dave and Geno is that the offense is certain to get better, but they never even consider the possibility that the defense might have trouble holding future opponents to the same defensive stats we've seen so far. In fact, I'd be willing to take anyone's bet that Bradley's defensive FG% will not be this good during the MVC season.
And again, as we have seen in virtually every article by Dave since last summer, he dwells on the injury issue as an excuse for losses. Tramique Sutherland's toe injury continues be brought up as an excuse for losing to Arkansas Little Rock. However, Sutherland played more minutes than any other Bradley player (34 minutes), and he scored 13 points, which is essentially his average. So I am just not buying that excuse.