4 Valley games left. Anything decided?

[Da Coach]

Now with 3 games left for each MVC team, the standings look like this-

Here are the 3 games each of the top 4 teams have left-
Northern Iowa- home vs. SIU, home vs. Evansville, and at Drake
Loyola- at Missouri State, home vs. Drake, and at Bradley
Bradley- at Valparaiso, at Illinois State, and home vs. Loyola
SIU- at UNI, home vs. Indiana State, and at Missouri State

It looks to me like SIU might have the toughest schedule remaining with 2 road games against teams that are tough at home (UNI & MSU) and a home game against Indiana St.
UNI appears to have maybe the easiest schedule with home games against SIU and 0-15 Evansville, and only 1 road game at Drake. I don't see them losing again.
Loyola and Bradley both have 2 tough road games, and a home game.
There are a lot of possibilities over the next 3 games, but all Bradley can do is try to win out and hope for the best.

 

[bigjimmy]

UNI is undefeated at home but SIU did beat them about a month ago. I think Loyola will have trouble at Missouri State so as long as we take care of business at Valpo we could be in 4th, tied for 3rd, in 3rd by ourselves, tied for 2nd or dare I say we could have a 3 or 4 way tie for 1st.

 

[egib52]

Current NET has Loyola at 95, and we are at 103. So if we win out, and tie with Loyola it will be interesting to see where the NETs would be. We both dropped one spot with home wins this week.

 

[egib52]

Wow I was just looking at NET, and the NCAA did a great job of propping it up for the P5. Look at DePaul for instance:

74

74

DePaul

Big East

12-13

4-6

0-0

8-7

1-0

I concede that they did well in the non-con, but they are 1-12 in the Big East. They have lost 8 in a row, and their only win was a home game against Butler (still impressive). However, they are 30 places in front of us even with a below 500 record.

Then there is Kansas St, who we obviously beat:

99

97

Kansas St.

Big 12

9-17

1-8

0-3

8-6

0-0

They are 4 spots ahead of us with that abysmal record, and they are 2-11 in conference and have lost 6 in a row. The unfortunate thing is if they keep dropping, so will we.

Not that I didn't think this would happen, but there should be some consideration given to the mid majors.

 

[Tommy]

egib, great points. The NCAA doesn't care about mid-majors, it only cares about money. Until the mid-majors come together and do something to fight back, this will always be an issue. It's very frustrating.

 

[Da Coach]

Wow I was just looking at NET, and the NCAA did a great job of propping it up for the P5. Look at DePaul for instance:

74

74

DePaul

Big East

12-13

4-6

0-0

8-7

1-0

I concede that they did well in the non-con, but they are 1-12 in the Big East. They have lost 8 in a row, and their only win was a home game against Butler (still impressive). However, they are 30 places in front of us even with a below 500 record.

Then there is Kansas St, who we obviously beat:

99

97

Kansas St.

Big 12

9-17

1-8

0-3

8-6

0-0

They are 4 spots ahead of us with that abysmal record, and they are 2-11 in conference and have lost 6 in a row. The unfortunate thing is if they keep dropping, so will we.

Not that I didn't think this would happen, but there should be some consideration given to the mid majors.

Egib, you hit the nail on the head. Right from the beginning it was predicted that the switch to the NET would favor the Power-6 conference teams. It puts more weight on the quality of teams you play, regardless whether you win or lose. And DePaul is in the Big East, which is by far the #1 ranked conference in NET, no thanks to DePaul.-
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/conferencenet

DePaul's non-conference schedule was not that great- their non-conference RPI was 258. Where the NET helps them out is that they are playing most of their games against good Big East Conference teams, and because the conference requires half of them to be on their home court, they even have a chance to win some. DePaul has only won 1 Big East game (they are currently 1-12), but even if they went 0-18 they would still have a better NET than Bradley just by playing 18 games against better teams that Bradley is able to get on their schedule.

Then add to this that some Power-6 conferences have increased the number of conference games they play, so they do not have to play any mid-majors and risk getting beat. And it makes it nearly impossible for the mid-majors to build a good schedule that would benefit them with the NET. THus even good mi-majors end up with lousy NET numbers, since they have to play in a weaker conference against some mediocre teams.
So it is all rigged to get more Power-6 teams in, and keep more mid-majors out.
Unfortunately, unlike the RPI, which a lot of mid-major schools found a way to overcome, the NET coupled with the reluctance now of Power-6 teams to even schedule any mid-majors, is nearly impossible to overcome. I predict we'll see fewer Mid-majors getting at-large bids than ever (not counting the Gonzagas, Butlers, & Daytons which are a cut above the typical mid-major).

 

[patrick_o'brian]

Wow I was just looking at NET, and the NCAA did a great job of propping it up for the P5. Look at DePaul for instance:

74

74

DePaul

Big East

12-13

4-6

0-0

8-7

1-0

I concede that they did well in the non-con, but they are 1-12 in the Big East. They have lost 8 in a row, and their only win was a home game against Butler (still impressive). However, they are 30 places in front of us even with a below 500 record.

Then there is Kansas St, who we obviously beat:

99

97

Kansas St.

Big 12

9-17

1-8

0-3

8-6

0-0

They are 4 spots ahead of us with that abysmal record, and they are 2-11 in conference and have lost 6 in a row. The unfortunate thing is if they keep dropping, so will we.

Not that I didn't think this would happen, but there should be some consideration given to the mid majors.

This is my thinking to a "T". I am so happy with Bradley's performance this year and had so much fun in Des Moines last year that it pains me to think that 1 slip up in St. Louis and we don't get to experience that again this year. I guess it's my pessimistic side overpowering my optimistic side. It just isn't fair!!

 

[Tommy]

This is my thinking to a "T". I am so happy with Bradley's performance this year and had so much fun in Des Moines last year that it pains me to think that 1 slip up in St. Louis and we don't get to experience that again this year. I guess it's my pessimistic side overpowering my optimistic side. It just isn't fair!!

I think we're all with you on that point, Patrick.

 

[Da Coach]

Here is Matt Hackman's latest data about the MVC. The top graph shows probabilities for each of the remaining 15 games. Note that Bradley is favored in all 3 remaining games over Valparaiso, Illinois State and Loyola. The lower graph is his projections for seeding in the MVC Tournament. Bradley can still mathematically finish as high as #1 and as low as #6, though the likelihood of #6 is close to 0%. The greatest likelihood is the #3 seed, followed by #2, then #4. Of course, nobody can predict the outcomes of the games with certainty. The seeding determines who Bradley will play, and which session they will play in on Friday. Of course, only seeds #7, #8, #9, and #10 play on Thursday. Seeds #1 & #4 play in the Friday afternoon session- #1 plays at 12:05 pm and #4 plays at 2:35 pm. And Seeds #2 & #3 play in the Friday night session- Seed #2 plays at 6:35 pm and Seed #3 plays at 8:35 pm.
Here is the Arch Madness schedule- http://mvc-sports.com/feature/20Arch


https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1230863150528040960/photo/1

 

[bigjimmy]

Well with 2 games to go let's see what we have. It would be absolutely shocking to see UNI not win the regular season with games at home against Evansville and at Drake. Speaking of Drake that loss against the Redbirds might have sealed their fate for the play in game. They finish at Loyola then host UNI. Missouri State travels to Valpo on Tuesday and SIU and ISU Blue play in Carbondale on Wednesday. Hopefully we take care of business on Wednesday. The up to date NET rankings, which are used for two way ties of teams that spilt their season series or multi teams ties after using a round robin format of those teams records against one another, are these:
UNI 46
Loyola 98
BU 106
ISU Blue 110
MSU 124
Valpo 134
SIU 139
Drake 165

Evansville Men's and woman's teams still haven't won a conference game. The men are 0-16 and are at UNI and finish at ISU Red. The woman are 0-15 and finish at home against ISU Blue, ISU Red and BU. Going back 20 years the woman have had 0-18 happen twice, SIU in 10-11 and Evansville in 17-18. It's been over 20 years since a men's team went 0-18 and Drake did it in back to back years, 96-97 & 97-98. They actually went 41 straight games without a Valley win from February 19, 1996 to January 9, 1999. ISU Blue was 0-16 in 88-89 and SIU was 0-16 in 80-81.

 

[Da Coach]

Here is Matt Hackman's updated projection-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1231949551751352320

 

[pauly616]

Sure looks like we are heading to a 3-6 game against MoState at Arch Madness. I really wish we had won at Valpo last Saturday, getting into the 2 seed would have been much better for the tournament. MoState looked tough to beat when we played them last week. We did not match up against their size very well. The only way we get the 2 seed now would be for Loyola to lose out and we would have to win out as their NET ranking is better than ours which would give them the tie advantage.

 

[egib52]

Sure looks like we are heading to a 3-6 game against MoState at Arch Madness. I really wish we had won at Valpo last Saturday, getting into the 2 seed would have been much better for the tournament. MoState looked tough to beat when we played them last week. We did not match up against their size very well. The only way we get the 2 seed now would be for Loyola to lose out and we would have to win out as their NET ranking is better than ours which would give them the tie advantage.

I don't like this scenario, as that I am sure the refs in StL will let MoSt be even more physical. However, in looking at everything unless Drake gets a big win on the road Wed, I am sure even with us winning out we can't pass Loyola in NET. Especially since KSU keeps losing.

 

[Go_Braves]

egib, great points. The NCAA doesn't care about mid-majors, it only cares about money. Until the mid-majors come together and do something to fight back, this will always be an issue. It's very frustrating.

Tommy, Egib52, Da Coach, Big Jimmy, Patrick O'Brien - All excellent points as to how the Power 5 or Power 6 conferences are the real controllers of the NCAA. And as I pointed out earlier - I hope that the following never happens. Refer to the link. I totally agree with you Tommy.

https://watchstadium.com/could-a-one...ll-02-20-2020/

That would be death to mid-majors. I really dislike the NCAA, and this rule would just add to the reasons why.

 

[Go_Braves]

Sure looks like we are heading to a 3-6 game against MoState at Arch Madness. I really wish we had won at Valpo last Saturday, getting into the 2 seed would have been much better for the tournament. MoState looked tough to beat when we played them last week. We did not match up against their size very well. The only way we get the 2 seed now would be for Loyola to lose out and we would have to win out as their NET ranking is better than ours which would give them the tie advantage.

If Bradley faces Missouri State in their first MVC Tournament game Friday March 6th - All that coach Dana Ford would have to post are the scores of the last 3 games against Bradley. March 8th, 2019 - 61 - 58 *** January 15th 91 - 78 *** February 19th 83 - 79 OT No other incentive necessary. Gaige Prim won't make the same mistakes as the last game - and Tuilo Da Silva will be licking his chops.

 

[Chibearsfan10125]

The only way we get the 2 seed now would be for Loyola to lose out and we would have to win out as their NET ranking is better than ours which would give them the tie advantage.

This isn’t true. We can also be the two seed if we win out and finish in a 3 way tie for second with Loyola and SIU. We win the round robin tiebreaker by way of our sweep of SIU. We’d be 3-1 against the group, Loyola would be 2-2 and Southern would be 1-3. For this to play out we would need us and Southern to win out.

 

[egib52]

This isn’t true. We can also be the two seed if we win out and finish in a 3 way tie for second with Loyola and SIU. We win the round robin tiebreaker by way of our sweep of SIU. We’d be 3-1 against the group, Loyola would be 2-2 and Southern would be 1-3. For this to play out we would need us and Southern to win out.

Good call, that is correct. I totally forgot about that tie breaker.

 

[Tommy]

Tommy, Egib52, Da Coach, Big Jimmy, Patrick O'Brien - All excellent points as to how the Power 5 or Power 6 conferences are the real controllers of the NCAA. And as I pointed out earlier - I hope that the following never happens. Refer to the link. I totally agree with you Tommy.

https://watchstadium.com/could-a-one...ll-02-20-2020/

What a load of crap and that article just makes my blood boil. If this happens, and they make it sound like it's a foregone conclusion, I hope the mid-majors revolt and just form up their own league. Tired of them constantly changing rules to benefit the big schools.

 

[bigjimmy]

Obviously spots #2 through #8 are still to be decided with many combinations still available. Missouri State playing at Valpo on Tuesday and ISU Blue playing at SIU on Wednesday will have huge implications for the road teams as they would be 2-0 against their opposition. There aren't many teams between #3 and #8 that have 2-0 records against each other right now. BU is 2-0 against SIU and MSU, ISU Blue is 2-0 against MSU and SIU is 2-0 against Drake are the only ones. If we beat ISU Red we would be assured of no worse than 4th. If we lose to them and Loyola that's where things would get very interesting so hopefully we make things very uninteresting in that regard.

 

[Tommy]

Sounds like everyone pretty much thinks MSU will be the bad draw for whoever gets them, and it will be interesting to see how things play out and where they land. If they do end up in the play in game, the #1 or #2 seed will likely see them, and point being, at this point, anything can still happen and man does it make it exciting.

I am really excited for Arch Madness.

Btw, Braves82, was nice hanging out with you at the Valpo game. Next time let's get a win, though, right?