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2019-20 prediction

Da Coach

Da Coach

Moderator
Staff member
I am not ready to pick the 2019-20 season just yet, but Paul Oren, the beat writer for Valparaiso, has already posted his predictions-
https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/1104857028151914497

I'll cut him some slack since Valpo is relatively new to the MVC, and Oren is a good basketball writer who is not afraid to make predictions. But, he has already been wrong with a number of his predictions. He picked Illinois State to win the MVC this season and as recently as 5 days ago he was predicting ISU would reach the MVC Tournament title game.
But come on. He picks Bradley 6th next season, and Valpo 4th!
 
Da Coach said:
I am not ready to pick the 2019-20 season just yet, but Paul Oren, the beat writer for Valparaiso, has already posted his predictions-
https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/1104857028151914497

I'll cut him some slack since Valpo is relatively new to the MVC, and Oren is a good basketball writer who is not afraid to make predictions. But, he has already been wrong with a number of his predictions. He picked Illinois State to win the MVC this season and as recently as 5 days ago he was predicting ISU would reach the MVC Tournament title game.
But come on. He picks Bradley 6th next season, and Valpo 4th!
Click to expand...

What Kool-Aide is this character drinking or planet is this guy from?? . Below is Paul Oren twitter 2019-2020 statement...
Congrats to the Salukis on your impending title: Paul picked SIU - "last" - Does Paul mean the Missouri State "Bears" ??? LOL

Paul Oren 2:30 PM - 10 Mar 2019
My All-Too-Early Predictions for the 2019-20 @ValleyHoops season. 1. Missouri State, 2. Northern Iowa, 3. Drake, 4. Valparaiso, 5. Loyola, 6. Bradley, 7. Illinois State, 8. Evansville, 9. Indiana State, 10. Southern Illinois. So congrats Salukis on your impending title #MVCHoops

I included a screen shot of Paul's twitter prediction in case the Kool-Aide wears off and Paul comes back to this planet and corrects his "Fo Pah" as if nothing ever happened. LOL

Paul Oren 3-10-19 twitter.JPG
 
a lot of people are buying into the hype that Missouri State has arrived.....

well - I get it - a couple good returning players - but...I am not ready to crown them champs for 2019...
we contained them in the MVC Tourney - Da Silva had just 3 points
.. and the loss (he graduates) of Dixon (he led them in scoring in TEN different games- including BOTH their MVC Tourney games!) will be significant.
Also Kreklow (he graduates, too) was one of their only other outside threats & a team leader- so they may have little outside firepower next year - we'll see

BUT - I think maybe their BIGGEST loss maybe is being overlooked by everyone -
they will also lose Josh Webster (runs out of eligibility after playing at four different schools in five years), their point guard who surprised everyone and who led the MVC in assists & was named to the All-Newcomer Team.
So that's 3 of their top 5 scorers, 3 of their 4 best FT shooters, their top 3 guys in assists, their top 3 in steals, 2 of their top 3 in blocks and 3 of their top 4 in minutes played!

Dixon, Webster & Kreklow were the only three guys who kept them in the game against us Friday (as well as almost every other game they won). They do have a good juco player coming in, but we'll have to wait to see if he puts up the same numbers in NCAA Division I as he did in NJCAA - and he plays kind of the same position as Da Silva.

The Missouri State guy had also previously given us his PREDICTIONS for 2019-2020 - LINK
He thinks Da Silva is the favorite for preseason Player of the Year but I beg to differ -
I think both Darrell Brown & Elijah Childs might have something to say about that
 
tornado said:
a lot of people are buying into the hype that Missouri State has arrived.....

well - I get it - a couple good returning players - but...I am not ready to crown them champs for 2019...
we contained them in the MVC Tourney - Da Silva had just 3 points
.. and the loss (he graduates) of Dixon (he led them in scoring in TEN different games- including BOTH their MVC Tourney games!) will be significant.
Also Kreklow )he graduates, too) was one of their only other outside threats - so they may have little outside firepower next year - we'll see
Dixon & Kreklow were the two guys who kept them in the game against us Friday.

The Missouri State guy had also previously given us his PREDICTIONS for 2019-2020 - LINK
He thinks Da Silva is the favorite for preseason Player of the Year but I beg to differ - I think both Darrell Brown & Elijah Childs might have something to say about that
Click to expand...

I like your analysis / feedback Tornado - I totally agree with everything you state and here's my take - Dana Ford (Mo State Head Coach) and his team can do that "weave" whatever the heck they are doing at the beginning of their offensive plays and take their shots with less than 5 seconds left all season long next season or any season. Is that suppose to "lull" opposing teams to sleep ? Bradley didn't fall for it. I could almost take a nap during the first 30 seconds of each of their offensive plays. We'll know in 8 months if Mo State sticks with their weave. I hope so. :D
 
That weave has been a part of Dana Ford's offense all year. And it is designed to tire out the defense by making them run back and forth defending the weaving players for the first 15 seconds of every shot clock. But the Bradley coaches devised their game plan differently this time. Our players simply stood still while MSU ran their 15 second of weaving, then went into their defense as soon as MSU stopped weaving. It worked to Bradley's advantage, because the BU players only had to expend energy for the last 15 seconds of each MSU possession, while the MSU players were the ones who had to do more work and expend more energy.
What surprised me a bit was that Dana Ford continued that weave/slow-down offense until the last few possessions even when they should have sped up to try to close their deficit. So after that game, I was definitely glad Darien DeVries won the COY. He deserved it.
 
Go_Braves said:
What Kool-Aide is this character drinking or planet is this guy from?? . Below is Paul Oren twitter 2019-2020 statement...
Congrats to the Salukis on your impending title: Paul picked SIU - "last" - Does Paul mean the Missouri State "Bears" ??? LOL ]
Click to expand...

Pretty sure he was being self-deprecating. He picked the Salukis last and he was saying that because he picked them last, that basically guarantees they’re going to win the league.
 
But I think he could end up being right about SIU. With Barry Hinson stepping down, losing 5 seniors including their best players, likely losing assistant coach Anthony Beane's son would have been one of the few returning players for SIU, and probably losing whatever is left of their 2019 recruiting class, SIU will be looking at a total rebuild next season with very little talent. Unless they get a miracle from whoever is their pick to take over the program, I expect it could be a couple years before they become competitive again.
 
Just for anyone else's amusement - here's my picks for the EARLY Pre-Season predictions...

MVC:
1- Bradley - reclaiming their rightful spot for a long time to come
2- UNI - this will be all coaching, he won't really have the manpower that anyone would expect a 2nd place finish..
3- Drake - they get a nice grad transfer again - Drake will be known a grad-transfer-central
4- Missouri State
5- Loyola - Krutwig can't carry the team all alone
6- Valpo - Derrick Smits will surprise people
7- Evansville - McCarty will get votes for COY
8 - ISU- - more grumbling - players will defect..
9- Indiana State
10- SIU - complete rebuild

All Conference 1st Team - DB, Eli, Tulio, Green Krutwig -
POY = Eli!, NOY = Prim, COY = Wardle
 
FWIW there is chatter on the Illinois Loyalty board that Da Silva may be transferring to Champaign. There is allegedly a connection from South Florida and one of the Illini's assistant coaches who used to be the head coach there. If so that will be a huge blow to MSU.
 
That might be wishful thinking by Illini fans. He was a 1st team All MVC player this season, and is one of the top candidates for Player of the Year next season if he stays at Missouri State. If he transfers again to Illinois, IMO he would play a lesser role next season. Plus, he'd have to graduate and transfer as a grad-transfer since he already burned a redshirt year at South Florida, and would run out of eligibility if he had to sit out another year after transferring. But if it happened, it would be a big blow to Missouri State.
 
I think the expectation among Illini fans is that since Tulio Da Silva has already completed four years of college, plus multiple summers as well and did not play his entire freshman year at USF so that would have allowed him to concentrate on academics...
that by now it's a pretty good possibility that he's be able to leave as a grad transfer.
The Illini fans are desperate for some size - Giorgi is the only thing they have, Samba was a complete disappointment and everyone else is inexperienced, a project or way too small.
 
tornado said:
Just for anyone else's amusement - here's my picks for the EARLY Pre-Season predictions...

MVC:
1- Bradley - reclaiming their rightful spot for a long time to come
2- UNI - this will be all coaching, he won't really have the manpower that anyone would expect a 2nd place finish..
3- Drake - they get a nice grad transfer again - Drake will be known a grad-transfer-central
4- Missouri State
5- Loyola - Krutwig can't carry the team all alone
6- Valpo - Derrick Smits will surprise people
7- Evansville - McCarty will get votes for COY
8 - ISU- - more grumbling - players will defect..
9- Indiana State
10- SIU - complete rebuild

All Conference 1st Team - DB, Eli, Tulio, Green Krutwig -
POY = Eli!, NOY = Prim, COY = Wardle
Click to expand...

well the unexpected departures are already starting...so I would revise my prediction
Valpo has to be quite a bit lower losing most of their starters

1- Bradley -
2- UNI -
3- Drake -
4- Missouri State - if Tulio stays
5- Loyola -
6- Evansville -
7- ISU -
8- Indiana State-
9- SIU -
10- Valparaiso - unless they get a couple stud transfers
 
tornado said:
Just for anyone else's amusement - here's my picks for the EARLY Pre-Season predictions...

MVC:
1- Bradley - reclaiming their rightful spot for a long time to come
2- UNI - this will be all coaching, he won't really have the manpower that anyone would expect a 2nd place finish..
3- Drake - they get a nice grad transfer again - Drake will be known a grad-transfer-central
4- Missouri State
5- Loyola - Krutwig can't carry the team all alone
6- Valpo - Derrick Smits will surprise people
7- Evansville - McCarty will get votes for COY
8 - ISU- - more grumbling - players will defect..
9- Indiana State
10- SIU - complete rebuild...
Click to expand...



OK - 3 months have passed and a few further personnel changes taken place - so I will revise...

1- Bradley
2- Loyola
3- Missouri State
4- UNI
5- Drake
6- Indiana State
7- Valpo
8- Evansville
9- SIU
10- ISU
 
Here is a Big East basketball blogger and self-proclaimed college basketball expert tweeting in response to the report that 2.3 point per game scorer & 8.9% three point percentage threat Ricky Torres received a waiver and will be eligible to play for Illinois State in 2019-20. He believes it puts Illinois State at the top in the MVC and a Top 100 team. He also believes Loyola, Missouri State, and Valpo will be at the top with them (no mention of Bradley)-
https://twitter.com/BradCav2/status/1140999660657680385

Illinois St will be interesting. Tentatively top 100, could be higher. MVC at the top with them, Loyola, Missouri St, Valpo should be competitive

For the record, the MVC did not have a single team anywhere close to the Top 100 last year (NET or RPI).
The highest ranked teams last season were Drake, ranked 127 in NET, and Loyola, ranked 128 in NET.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...issouri-Valley

And note that Illinois State's NET ranking was 199 this past season! That was 8th best in the MVC, and just 9 slots away from being the worst ranking in the MVC last year!
Yet that analyst believes that even after losing more production from last year than any other MVC team, Illinois State will make a massive 100 slot jump over 7 other MVC teams and into the Top 100 next year and to the top of the MVC!

ISU lost their top 2 top rebounders and 2 top scorers in Phil Fayne (1st team All-MVC in 2019 & 2nd team in 2018 ) and Milik Yarbrough (2nd team All MVC in 2019 & 1st team in 2018 ), plus they lost Keyshawn Evans (their only real point guard and assists leader), lost one of their top 3-point threats Josh Jefferson (shot over 40%), lost frequent starter William Tinsley, and lost their best 3-point shooter Isaac Gassman (40.5% on threes).

I am on record saying that I believe getting Rickie Torres eligible will help them next season, since they do not return any other players with D1 point guard experience.
But I don't quite see them as a Top 100 team.

And, I am also not buying his assertion that Valparaiso will be competing for the top with them. Valpo lost most their team from last season (Smits, Golder, Evelyn, Lavender, Sorolla), and even with all that talent, they finished dead last in 2018, and next-to-last in 2019 in their two seasons in the MVC. They do have some decent talent returning in Javon Freeman and Ryan Fazekas, along with a couple transfer guards who will help some. But their only inside player with any experience will be Mileek McMillan, who only played 8 mpg and averaged just 2.8 ppg and 1.4 rpg last season.
 
Mileek is a head case that never seems to do what the coach wants - I am surprised he's still there..
..he launched MORE 3-pt attempts per minute on the court than anyone else on the team except Bakari Evelyn - hitting just 26%!....
so while he's out there roaming the wing - you got one of the biggest players in the MVC grabbing a whopping 1.5 rebounds a game -
NOT even as many rebounds as Antoine Pittman or Ari Boya grabbed!!

Another expert, Blaine Lewallen of the Daily Vidette, covers all the point guard options and seems to think
ISU is pretty deep now that Torres is eligible.
http://www.videtteonline.com/sports...cle_22994154-91e6-11e9-a3a5-8f82e1e49da4.html
 
Illinois State Penitentiary can win all the preseason accolades they want if it makes Dan Muller's job more secure!
 
tornado said:
...

Another expert, Blaine Lewallen of the Daily Vidette, covers all the point guard options and seems to think
ISU is pretty deep now that Torres is eligible.
http://www.videtteonline.com/sports/...2e1e49da4.html
Click to expand...

IMO, that article by the student in the Vidette about who will be the next ISU point guard was pretty good. He seems to still long a little too much for Paris Lee who left 2 years ago, and he is a little too optimistic about some of their point guard prospects, especially Division II transfer walkon Lijah Donnelly and incoming freshman Antonio Reeves. I would be stunned if Reeves sees any time at point guard this season, and probably won't ever. He is so skinny (6'5", 160 pounds), he might be better off redshirting. But I think ISU will now be OK at point guard, though not great, now that they have Torres to go along with Copeland, and Horne.

The writer also gives a nice summary of all of Ricky Torres' junior college stats from 2016-17 and 2017-18, but completely omits his miniscule stat numbers from last season at Wichita State. :)
 
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