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MVC tourney seeding probabilities

Updated project conference final standings. https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1623741740736716807/photo/1

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OhRotanes said:
According to this, it appears to be a 93% chance at a top 4 seed for Bradley
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I'll take those odds and the 1st round bye. Would be so great to win the regular season though. Was surprised Belmont lost yesterday, and now it is looking like Drake may be the toughest opponent left, and biggest challenger to the MVC crown for BU.
 
Stryker said:
I'll take those odds and the 1st round bye. Would be so great to win the regular season though. Was surprised Belmont lost yesterday, and now it is looking like Drake may be the toughest opponent left, and biggest challenger to the MVC crown for BU.
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I would not be surprised if the 1 seed came down to the Bradley vs Drake game on the last day of the season
 
OhRotanes said:
I would not be surprised if the 1 seed came down to the Bradley vs Drake game on the last day of the season
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I wouldn't count out SIU. Everyone seems to be discounting them all of a sudden, but they just continue to win and are still tied for first, but agree with the sentiment. Drake does appear to be the team to beat right now.
 
Tommy said:
I wouldn't count out SIU. Everyone seems to be discounting them all of a sudden, but they just continue to win and are still tied for first, but agree with the sentiment. Drake does appear to be the team to beat right now.
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Probably because Drake is looking really really strong and on a 6 game win streak, BU has a 5 win streak going, and SIU just lost to BU & ISU, and UIC took them to the wire last night at home. SIU just doesn't feel like they have been playing as well as the other teams at the top of the conference. SIU also has to play at Drake and host BU & UNI yet.

Don't get me wrong, they definitely could end up winning out or something crazy, it just doesn't feel like they will at this point in time based on how they are playing.
 
Bradley is number 1 in the most recent seeding probabilities!!

MVC Tournament Seeding Probabilities #ArchMadness - February 9 Update:
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...41740736716807
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Here is the breakdown of potential seed odds by conference record. Regarding the first round bye: 12 conference wins probably doesn't get it done (6% chance), 13 wins is the target if you are feeling lucky (58% chance), and 14 wins nearly guarantees it (98% chance).
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...41743785975814
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And here is an team-by-team breakdown of first round bye odds at each win level. Certain team odds are really starting to diverge from the average. Also note the total team bye odds at the bottom of the graph.
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...41746210283521
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Very interesting race between ISUBlue and Belmont for that 4th bye spot (By probability). Going to be a really interesting finish this year.
 
MVC Tournament Seeding Probabilities #ArchMadness - February 13 Update:
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https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1625162286083063811

Here is the breakdown of potential seed odds by conference record. The bye target continues to shift up as the top teams stay grouped tightly: 12 wins is highly unlikely to get it done (4% chance), 13 wins is a coinflip (46% chance), 14 wins is nearly a lock (95% chance).
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https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1625162290235428864

And here is an team-by-team breakdown of first round bye odds at each win level. Note the large variance by team at the 13-win level. Also the total team bye odds are at the bottom of the graph.
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https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1625162293313937408

Bradley:
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https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1625163333262315521

As of today, looks like the top four, for tourney byes, are
1/2) Drake/Bradley (virtual tie)
3) SIU
4) InSU
 
Looks like the projection is for both BU and Drake to finish 2-1 down the stretch, likely BU losing at SIU and winning at home vs Drake. This scenario would leave Drake and BU tied with 15 wins each. However, wouldn't this mean BU would be the 1 seed? With the two teams splitting games against each other and a tied conference record, I was thinking NET is the next tie breaker, and BU should have a higher NET in that situation, correct?
 
Actually they just changed the tiebreaker to where, if the tied teams split against each other, next they look at records vs each place teams from top to bottom, and only use NET if that doesn’t break it.

In other words if BU and Drake finished tied for 1st, the next question is how did BU and DU do vs the 3rd place team(s). If SIU is alone in 3rd and BU swept the Salukis while DU split with them, BU gets the 1 seed. If they both split you keep going down the standings. Bottom line is we want Belmont to lose and drop as far as possible since they swept us.
 
Illinois State and Valparaiso are currently tied for 9th place at 5-13. And Illinois State is a huge favorite to beat Evansville and finish 1-1, while Valpo is a big underdog in both their remaining games. Yet it's essentially a tossup between the two of them for that 9th place. I'm not sure why his methods don't more strongly favor ISU to finish 9th, and Valpo 10th.
 
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