I am predicting there will be many others that drop down over the next 10 years. Factors include:
1) Implementation of AI education tools that replace teachers and make online degrees even easier to get. Will become more and more attractive, especially for young men. Colleges are already 60/40 female/male split and it will get worse as the value of college educations continue to fall.
2) AI automation of many white collar jobs. Banking, finance, communication, accounting, graphic design, most white collar jobs without physical requirements are going to be very very susceptible to being automated by AI over the next decade. If it comes to fruition, which most experts believe it will, demand for college degrees will plummet.
3) Likelihood of resurgence in manufacturing and trades continues to rise, especially if globalism continues to fracture apart away from the post-WW2 consensus. We see it with the current administrations use of tariffs, exposing of supply chain weaknesses throughout COVID, and resurgence of nationalist tendencies across the globe, etc. along with demographic collapses in Asia and Europe driving disruptions.
4) Further divide between men and women. Women voted heavily in favor of progressive, liberal candidates in 2024 while men, especially young men, were overwhelmingly in favor of right wing candidates. Signals further societal decline, young people are not getting married, not having kids, heck Gen Z isn't even having sex like previous generations. This will incentivize men to avoid college as there is no longer a point of signaling provider status to potential mates.
5) Continued move of people into a digital world, and even more entertainment options. College BB attendance continues to be low across the nation with only the best programs still having strong attention. We have the strongest attendance in the MVC and it is roughly 60% of what it was 15 years ago.
6) Likelihood of the student loan bubble popping. As soon as the federal government gets out of the student loan business many universities will collapse. Colleges are addicted to the government backed student loans artificially increasing demand for their services. If the government ever does away with this, it will be catastrophic to many colleges.
7) Immigration changes. Changes in immigration policy could have major impacts on colleges. Schools like U of I have very large foreign student enrollment, thousands of them. If the government realizes we are subsidizing the education of foreigners at our own citizens expense in both tax dollars and enrollment spots at universities and removes the ability for hundred of thousands of foreigners to get educated at our schools, it will cause a large disruption in revenue at most colleges.
8 )Changes in law regarding male and female sports, Title IX, etc. Title IX could potentially go away as public opinion changes and schools may not be able to afford scholarships and services for so many sports programs. This could have spiraling impacts on enrollment as students avoid schools that cannot provide as many services and amenities and the value proposition continues to fall.
There are many many factors that may contribute to falling financial performance at colleges across the nation. First to be impacted will be directional state schools and smaller private liberal arts colleges (Think Western Illinois, Eastern Illinois, Knox College, Eureka College, etc in our neck of the woods). Predictions are always very hard.
If I had to though, I would predict about 150 D1 schools in the country by the end of the next 10 years. I just don't think schools will be able to weather the headwinds the industry has at this time like they have over the past couple of decades.
