Predictions for the rest of the conference season

[Stryker]

What record is everyone predicting for the remaining 6 games of the MVC for Bradley?

ISU Blue
@SIU
MSU
@Valpo
@ISU Red
Loyola

At SIU looks like a tough game as well as Missouri State and Loyola at home. I’m going to predict BU goes 4-2 down the stretch and finishes with an 11-7 conference record and 20-11 overall record. I’d love to see BU go 5-1 or win out though. It’s possible but unlikely. IMO it would have to take great consistent play by Child’s, Brown, & Kennel and solid bench play.

Many other predictions?

 

[egib52]

I think anything less than 4-2 should be considered underachieving. I voted 5-1, but I think 6-0 is definitely possible because I think we match up very well with SIU, and Loyola has to come to Carver.

 

[Go_Braves]

To begin - I am going to take this topic - one step further - I am going to ask - what does this Bradley team need to do better in their final 6 games to get ready for the Missouri Valley "Arch Madness" Tournament? And let me provide some thoughts later.

I totally agree with egib52 - the Braves should at least go 4 - 2. Southern Illinois reminds me of the 2019 Braves with their latest winning streak. They have apparently found a team formula that works and are gaining confidence. Indiana State is going to be a key game indicator as to how wow well the Braves are working with the return of Elijah against a much better team than Evansville.

A year ago - Bradley was gaining it's confidence...... and finished 5th in the Valley....

My view of last years 2019 tournament...

The last game of the regular season - Bradley lost miserably on a hostile Loyola home court. Chip on the Bradley players shoulder set... Just like a chip was set on Bradley's players shoulders after the Northwestern game
and playing Kansas State next.

First game - vs. Missouri State - Bradley had something to prove - they lost both regular season games to Missouri State. And the last regular season Loyola game left a bad taste in their mouths.

Second game - vs. Loyola - all it took was remembering their last game at Loyola.

Third and Championship game - The first half they played like the Bradley team that we have seen before - totally out of sync. Then they got ticked and played like a totally different team in the second half.

As for the 2020 tournament.
I totally agree - Evansville with players returning can be the opposing teams worst night mare.
It'll be interesting to see if Southern Illinois continues on their winning way... if so they will be a target.
Northern Iowa always a target.
Bradley - last years winner - definitely a target.

I may be blind - but somehow I hope that the Braves during these next 6 games - regain some more confidence. Darrell and Nate with their shots. I truly miss DLO, Luuk, and Lundy - each played "smart basketball" and made very few mistakes. And does anyone recognize the "little" things each of these 3 did. They messed with the opposing teams offensive tactics - passing lanes - passes - and got them out of rhythm. Something I don't really see with this years team.

Oh well - there's my 2 cents. It is going to be a interesting final 6 games. The Braves need to at least finish 4th or 5th in the Valley standings. Currently they are on track. And this next "home" game will show everyone a lot and are they heading in the right direction as a team leading into the MVC "Arch Madness" Tournament ?

GO BRAVES !!!

 

[Da Coach]

I voted for 5-1. Maybe that is a bit optimistic, but with a healthy Elijah Childs, I think it is achievable. And 6-0 is not out of the question.
The MVC Tournament should be interesting. On first glance, it would seem Northern Iowa would be the prohibitive favorite. But unlike past seasons, UNI lacks depth this season. Check out their stats-
https://unipanthers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2019-20#individual

They get a bigger fraction of their team scoring and rebounding from their starting 5 and less from their bench than any MVC team. Their 5 starters average 31 minutes per game, and nobody off the bench averages more than 4.0 points per game. In the MVC Tournament, teams play at least 3 games in 3 days, which stresses a team's starters. Team depth is very important, and UNI's lack of depth could hurt them. Maybe UNI would be a bit more susceptible to an upset?

 

[Go_Braves]

I voted for 5-1. Maybe that is a bit optimistic, but with a healthy Elijah Childs, I think it is achievable. And 6-0 is not out of the question.
The MVC Tournament should be interesting. On first glance, it would seem Northern Iowa would be the prohibitive favorite. But unlike past seasons, UNI lacks depth this season. Check out their stats-
https://unipanthers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2019-20#individual

They get a bigger fraction of their team scoring and rebounding from their starting 5 and less from their bench than any MVC team. Their 5 starters average 31 minutes per game, and nobody off the bench averages more than 4.0 points per game. In the MVC Tournament, teams play at least 3 games in 3 days, which stresses a team's starters. Team depth is very important, and UNI's lack of depth could hurt them. Maybe UNI would be a bit more susceptible to an upset?

WOW - Great observation and find Da Coach - one could draw a line under Isaiah Brown (below the starting five) - and the stats truly pop out as you have shared. Well I doubt that Bradley will play Northern Iowa in a Friday game. After that - the 2020 MVC bracket should be interesting. GO BRAVES !!!

 

[Tommy]

To begin - I am going to take this topic - one step further - I am going to ask - what does this Bradley team need to do better in their final 6 games to get ready for the Missouri Valley "Arch Madness" Tournament? And let me provide some thoughts later.

GO BRAVES !!!

Go_Braves - Great topic starter, bud!

I think our season lives and dies with DB. If we get the DB that showed up last night, we can go all the way. If we get the DB that has been a 25% 3 point shooter and terrible D that we've had on the road for most of the season, we're doomed. With DB playing at his best and a healthy, Eli, we'll do fine and get plenty from guys like Henry and Nate. DB is the key.

 

[egib52]

I think our season lives and dies with DB. If we get the DB that showed up last night, we can go all the way. If we get the DB that has been a 25% 3 point shooter and terrible D that we've had on the road for most of the season, we're doomed. With DB playing at his best and a healthy, Eli, we'll do fine and get plenty from guys like Henry and Nate. DB is the key.

I disagree with Tommy here, and not just for the sake of disagreement. This team has weathered games without Eli and with DB playing poorly or out completely. I think this season hinges on role players stepping up. As long as 2 of DB, Eli, Nate and Henry play well I think we are in just about every game. The key to me is getting contributions from Ville, Ari, Koch, Danya and AT pushes this team to the Championship level. Think back to the Drake home game, it seemed liked every time a big shot was needed Ville hit it. If Ari and Koch can get rebounds, hit the bunnies and effect shots around the rim this team is tough to beat.

I don't personally like the lineups when BW has Koch or Ari in there with Eli because I feel they tend to get in his way. I do however think they are effective with Henry. I personally thought Henry was too passive yesterday, and hope he goes back to his aggressive style.

 

[Chris]

I think we need to finish in the top 3 for our post-season prospects if we don't win the Valley tournament. If we finish 4th, I think our at large chances to the NCAA are a lot smaller.

We just need to avoid UNI's side of the bracket for Arch Madness. I still think the Valley is a two bid league this year, and if we can make a run to the Arch finals, even if we lose to UNI, we could get into the NCAA tournament. A strong finish and a run to the Valley championship, combined with the knowledge that our best player missed half the season, could get us an at large. That requires we beat Loyola at home and probably beat them or SIU in St. Louis as well.

As to the lineups, I actually prefer the lineups where Eli isn't at the 5. It makes sure he draws a smaller defender that he can body into the lane (unless he draws a hilarious charge call on a flop like he did on Sunday) and shoot over. Ideally, if they had to double team Eli, he could dump it off to Koch or Ari for an easy 2.

 

[BUfan39]

I think we need to finish in the top 3 for our post-season prospects if we don't win the Valley tournament. If we finish 4th, I think our at large chances to the NCAA are a lot smaller.

We just need to avoid UNI's side of the bracket for Arch Madness. I still think the Valley is a two bid league this year, and if we can make a run to the Arch finals, even if we lose to UNI, we could get into the NCAA tournament. A strong finish and a run to the Valley championship, combined with the knowledge that our best player missed half the season, could get us an at large. That requires we beat Loyola at home and probably beat them or SIU in St. Louis as well.

As to the lineups, I actually prefer the lineups where Eli isn't at the 5. It makes sure he draws a smaller defender that he can body into the lane (unless he draws a hilarious charge call on a flop like he did on Sunday) and shoot over. Ideally, if they had to double team Eli, he could dump it off to Koch or Ari for an easy 2.

You're not serious, right? We have ZERO chance of an at-large bid. We have to win on Sunday in St. Louis to get there. Quite frankly I'm not sure this team can get an NIT bid with a Sunday loss even if we were to win out in the regular season.

 

[Stryker]

You're not serious, right? We have ZERO chance of an at-large bid. We have to win on Sunday in St. Louis to get there. Quite frankly I'm not sure this team can get an NIT bid with a Sunday loss even if we were to win out in the regular season.

Agreed. 0% chance of an at large bid. Even UNI will be questionable for an at at large bid if they lose on Sunday in St. Louis.

 

[Chris]

You're not serious, right? We have ZERO chance of an at-large bid. We have to win on Sunday in St. Louis to get there. Quite frankly I'm not sure this team can get an NIT bid with a Sunday loss even if we were to win out in the regular season.

Take it up with the bracketologists then, because they have had the Valley as a 2 bid league. The power conferences have been relatively terrible this year. If we win out and lose to UNI in the championship, it is absolutely possible. Our NET at that time would probably be in the high 60s.

There is zero chance of UNI not getting an at large if they lose in the Valley championship assuming they dont fall apart now. Their NET is 36.

 

[Da Coach]

As of now, the bracketologists are only giving the MVC one bid-
ESPN- http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
CBSSports- https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/

The only way the bracketologists had the MVC getting 2 bids is a few weeks ago when they had someone else winning the MVC and UNI was the at-large team.
The worst RPI any MVC team has had in the past and still gotten an at-large bid was around 40, so even UNI is borderline if they fail to win the MVC Tournament. The NET is used now, and makes it even harder for the mid-majors. Other than UNI's NET of 37, no other MVC team is anywhere close. The next best NET is Indiana State's 92, and that's been dropping.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...issouri-Valley

Even UNI is on the borderline with their NET of 37. 37 does not guarantee them an at-large bid.
Recall that in 2007, Bradley did not get an at-large bid with an RPI of 39, and Missouri State was excluded with an RPI of 36-
http://realtimerpi.com/2006-2007/rpi_mvc_Men.html

And in 2006, Missouri State was snubbed with an RPI of 24!
http://realtimerpi.com/2005-2006/rpi_mvc_Men.html

 

[Mikovio]

Yeah I think it's win Arch Madness again or bust. We could be in the NIT conversation if we only lose 1-2 more.

Agree it's best we're on the opposite side of the bracket of UNI. That means 2, 3 or 6 seed. I'd take a 6 seed over a 4-5. Realistically I'm hoping for a 2 or 3. Win @ SIU and we can talk a 2.

 

[Tommy]

Wouldn’t it be nice if every conference had two spots, one for the conference tournament champ and one for the season champ? If it’s the same team, send the season runner-up. It would be a great incentive for all teams and then every conference would have 2 shots to win it all.

I think there are 32 conferences, so this would work out perfectly.

Unfortunately, the NCAA is worried only about money, so we’ll continue to see 4-7 teams from the power conferences while the mid-majors are left for the 2nd rate tourneys.

I wish the mid-majors would make their own tournament or better yet, leave the NCAA altogether. Then maybe they’d have to change the bias we’ve put up with for so long.

Oh, and seeding would be gone. Draw the teams out of a hat and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[BUfan39]

Yeah I think it's win Arch Madness again or bust. We could be in the NIT conversation if we only lose 1-2 more.

Agree it's best we're on the opposite side of the bracket of UNI. That means 2, 3 or 6 seed. I'd take a 6 seed over a 4-5. Realistically I'm hoping for a 2 or 3. Win @ SIU and we can talk a 2.

One game at a time but you are 100% right. We probably need to go 5-1 or 6-0 to get the 2 seed with wins against Indiana State, at SIU, and Loyola being critical. If we were going to drop one it would be better for us to do some against Missouri State, Valpo, or Illinois State.

I think it’s going to take a 2 seed and a loss on Sunday in St. Louis to get us in the NIT conversation. That would put us in the 22-24 win range.

 

[Bradley3342]

Disagree with you Bufan39. If BU wins out and wins one in St.Louis that would make them 23-10 and I think they receive an NIT bid..The Valley is a lot better league than some think.

 

[BUfan39]

Disagree with you Bufan39. If BU wins out and wins one in St.Louis that would make them 23-10 and I think they receive an NIT bid..The Valley is a lot better league than some think.

I sure hope that you’re right. I wish the NIT would swallow the other dumb low level tournaments and expand. If it were a 48 team tournament it would make more sense. Bradley could realistically compete every year for an NIT bid baring not winning the whole thing in St. Louis.

 

[Da Coach]

The NIT is forced to absorb as many as 10-12 conference regular season winners who don't win their tournaments, and fail to get an at-large bid to the NCAA. Those teams all get automatic NIT bids. Because of that, and the fact that they'll give preference to Power 6 teams over midmajors for NIT bids, a midmajor like Bradley will probably need to get their NET in the 70's or low 80's and make it to the final of the MVC Tournament to have a chance at getting in the NIT.

 

[Bradley3342]

I agree with you Bufan39. Those low level tournaments don’t mean a whole lot. Don’t know if it will ever happen but expanding the NIT sure makes a lot more sense than allowing teams with losing records or subpar records to play in a tournament.

 

[basketball nut]

I voted for 5-1. Maybe that is a bit optimistic, but with a healthy Elijah Childs, I think it is achievable. And 6-0 is not out of the question.
The MVC Tournament should be interesting. On first glance, it would seem Northern Iowa would be the prohibitive favorite. But unlike past seasons, UNI lacks depth this season. Check out their stats-
https://unipanthers.com/sports/mens-...-20#individual

They get a bigger fraction of their team scoring and rebounding from their starting 5 and less from their bench than any MVC team. Their 5 starters average 31 minutes per game, and nobody off the bench averages more than 4.0 points per game. In the MVC Tournament, teams play at least 3 games in 3 days, which stresses a team's starters. Team depth is very important, and UNI's lack of depth could hurt them. Maybe UNI would be a bit more susceptible to an upset?

I agree completely with 5-1 being possible w/ Elijah being back. The nice thing is that now we don't have to play Brown and Nate 35-38 minutes a game so maybe they get some rest.
As for the tournament who are the sleepers in the tournament. Lickliter has the Aces playing better and they might just surprise a team if they overlook them. Missouri State is still a team that might be a force if they learn to play together. Not sure if SIU is for real yet or not. They still have some tough road games and a couple of games at home that might give them fits.
As last year the MVC tournament is up for grabs again this year and don't count anyone out. Remember the top 2 teams didn't play on Sunday last year and they might not again this year.