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ESPN Andy Katz Give Their Early Preseason Top 25

tornado

tornado

New member
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=3446170

Not many non-BCS except a few in the also-rans, but I think Memphis will fall further since they lost their 3 best players.
And I think Arizona State is picked a little high considering the players they have are the same ones who lost
TEN of their final 15 games.

AND, in the TOP 25 plus extra 16 also-rans, the guy doesn't even mention Xavier.
Xavier was 27-6 last year, finished with the 9th best RPI, cruised to an easy win of the A-10,
have plenty of firepower returning and almost everyone has Xavier ranked among the best recruiting classes.
 
I agree about Memphis. I also think he has Notre Dame a little overated. They will be very good, but #4? Maybe if all their transfers could play this year they could be Top 5.

And if Bill Self can get Kansas back into the Top 25 after losing nearly everyone of significance, I'll have to change my mind a little more about his coaching abilities!
 
Even though Carolina is the preseason #1 I can see them stumbling. This may be Roy's toughest year yet because he has 4 starters (at least) trying to prove to pro scouts that they are first round picks.

In fact, comments made by both Lawson and Green leading up to their draft-day decision lead one to believe that they are TOTALLY disenfranchised with the Carolina "fans". They are unhappy that many "fans" turned against them and were making negative comments about their loyalties and abilities. Kind of like "we love ya if ya stay a Tarheel, but if you leave we hope you fail".

Hmmmm..............kinda sounds somewhat similar to some comments I've heard here about POB. (the negative comments about ability, not the "hope ya fail" as I'm sure everyone wishes POB the best).
 
Here is a preseason Top 25 from a sportswriter for the Atlanta Journal Constitution. His picks looks a little more realistic, to me. He has Memphis (#14), Notre Dame (#11), and especially Kansas (#25) a little lower.
 
One other puzzle....
...he has Miami showing up at preseason #8.

Anyone have a clue why?
Miami is good and plays in a tough conference, but they were 22-11 against D-I opponents last year and 8-8 in the conference.
Their 12-1 non-conference record was against a non-con schedule ranked #143, and they only two non-conference opponents
with an RPI under 100 (and only one under 50).
After they hit mid-January and got past all the cushy cupcakes, they went 8-9!
I wonder why they made such a huge jump into the Top 10?
I guess time will tell if Katz is on to something.
 
tornado said:
One other puzzle....
...he has Miami showing up at preseason #8.

Anyone have a clue why?
Miami is good and plays in a tough conference, but they were 22-11 against D-I opponents last year and 8-8 in the conference.
Their 12-1 non-conference record was against a non-con schedule ranked #143, and they only two non-conference opponents
with an RPI under 100 (and only one under 50).
After they hit mid-January and got past all the cushy cupcakes, they went 8-9!
I wonder why they made such a huge jump into the Top 10?
I guess time will tell if Katz is on to something.
Click to expand...

Playing a cupcake schedule for BCS schools is nothing new. BU can have a top 50 SOS and go 22-11 and these so called "experts" would be saying they are on the bubble but a Miami can have the same record w/ 12 of those wins coming against teams that BU would have dominated, and probably would have given them 25-28 wins last year, and everyone is in love w/ Miami because they are a BCS school.
I loved it 3 years ago when BU did make the Big Dance. They took the time to show teams records, conference records, SOS, top 100, top 50 & top 25 wins. I don't remember the other teams that they showed but they were all teams that everyone was saying were "locks" to get in. They never showed the teams names just the stats and had the announcers rate them. When they were done BU was the concensus pick over all of these so called locks. The announcers were all surprised and said they had no idea BU was that good.
This is how they need to pick all of the Tournament teams, it would be much more interesting.
 
tornado said:
One other puzzle....
...he has Miami showing up at preseason #8.

Anyone have a clue why?
Miami is good and plays in a tough conference, but they were 22-11 against D-I opponents last year and 8-8 in the conference.
Their 12-1 non-conference record was against a non-con schedule ranked #143, and they only two non-conference opponents
with an RPI under 100 (and only one under 50).
After they hit mid-January and got past all the cushy cupcakes, they went 8-9!
I wonder why they made such a huge jump into the Top 10?
I guess time will tell if Katz is on to something.
Click to expand...



From their press release announcing the ACC/Big10 Challenge:


"The Hurricanes come off one of the most successful seasons in program history, finishing 23-11 and among the top-five in the ACC. They will return four starters and their top-five scorers from their 2007-08 squad that advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament, including First Team All-ACC selection Jack McClinton, who averaged a team-high 17.7 points per game, while converting an ACC-best (third in the NCAA) 91.9 percent from the line and 42.7 percent from long range."



http://hurricanesports.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/041508aaa.html
 
basketball nut said:
Playing a cupcake schedule for BCS schools is nothing new. BU can have a top 50 SOS and go 22-11 and these so called "experts" would be saying they are on the bubble but a Miami can have the same record w/ 12 of those wins coming against teams that BU would have dominated, and probably would have given them 25-28 wins last year, and everyone is in love w/ Miami because they are a BCS school.
I loved it 3 years ago when BU did make the Big Dance. They took the time to show teams records, conference records, SOS, top 100, top 50 & top 25 wins. I don't remember the other teams that they showed but they were all teams that everyone was saying were "locks" to get in. They never showed the teams names just the stats and had the announcers rate them. When they were done BU was the concensus pick over all of these so called locks. The announcers were all surprised and said they had no idea BU was that good.
This is how they need to pick all of the Tournament teams, it would be much more interesting.
Click to expand...


That is a GREAT point! I think maybe the Valley should start scheduling all cream-puff sub 150 RPI teams which would inflate everyone's record. And then when six Valley teams finish with 20 or more wins, four or five would make the NCAA Tourney.

Of course, that will be the same year the RPI is "re-emphasized" and the big chiefs in the NCAA will call out the Valley regarding how weak their collective non-conference SOS is! It never ends!
 
Bravesfan said:
That is a GREAT point! I think maybe the Valley should start scheduling all cream-puff sub 150 RPI teams which would inflate everyone's record. And then when six Valley teams finish with 20 or more wins, four or five would make the NCAA Tourney.

Of course, that will be the same year the RPI is "re-emphasized" and the big chiefs in the NCAA will call out the Valley regarding how weak their collective non-conference SOS is! It never ends!
Click to expand...

SOS is an automatic w/ any of the mid-majors except a Gonzaga type of school. This is why the MVC went to stronger SOS because they said the vally played to soft a schedule.
 
tornado said:
One other puzzle....
...he has Miami showing up at preseason #8.

Anyone have a clue why?
Miami is good and plays in a tough conference, but they were 22-11 against D-I opponents last year and 8-8 in the conference.
Their 12-1 non-conference record was against a non-con schedule ranked #143, and they only two non-conference opponents
with an RPI under 100 (and only one under 50).
After they hit mid-January and got past all the cushy cupcakes, they went 8-9!
I wonder why they made such a huge jump into the Top 10?
I guess time will tell if Katz is on to something.
Click to expand...

Braves4Life said:
From their press release announcing the ACC/Big10 Challenge:


"The Hurricanes come off one of the most successful seasons in program history, finishing 23-11 and among the top-five in the ACC. They will return four starters and their top-five scorers from their 2007-08 squad that advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament, including First Team All-ACC selection Jack McClinton, who averaged a team-high 17.7 points per game, while converting an ACC-best (third in the NCAA) 91.9 percent from the line and 42.7 percent from long range."



http://hurricanesports.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/041508aaa.html
Click to expand...

tornado said:
But it's still Miami!
They're a football school.
Click to expand...

Gonzaga checks in at #9.

#9?

It's still Gonzaga.
They're a Mid-Major.

;)
 
Love the coverage of my "other" team...

the one, and only Louisville Cardinals. We just need to find a way to beat the EXACT same UNC team that took us by 10 last year, sigh. It's going to be Louisville or Bradley (or both) going strong this year, as this will be the first college basketball season in a haul that i wont be able to watch. Moving out to Zambia, and the US NCAA basketball coverage is a little thin out there. I'll keep an eye out for under-the-radar african talent for Jim :)
 
and two factors that might keep Gonzaga from getting into the Top 10...

--first, their conference schedule is weak, and they'll get little credit for whupping up on Portland, Marymount, and Pepperdine.

--second, even though their non-conference schedule has some strong opponents, they still have some really weak guys like Idaho, UC-Riverside (who will have Xavier Crawford this year), and Northern Colorado, and the few good teams they always get (Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, UConn, Tennessee, Oklahoma) they can never get those guys at home, and always have to leave Spokane to get those teams on the schedule, which makes it all the harder to beat them.
 
tornado said:
But it's still Miami!
They're a football school.
Click to expand...

So is Ohio State, Florida, Tennessee, Texas, Okie and any number of other schools.

Just because they have been known to be good in football, that doesn't mean they can't have very good years in other sports. Men's basketball included.
 
tornado said:
and the few good teams they always get (Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, UConn, Tennessee, Oklahoma) they can never get those guys at home, and always have to leave Spokane to get those teams on the schedule, which makes it all the harder to beat them.
Click to expand...

In the last 5 years the following schools have played vs. the Zags in Spokane:

Washington State
Washington
Baylor
Virginia
Stanford
Georgia
 
Trivia Question Time...

When was the last time Miami was ranked in the Top 10?
When was the last time they were ranked #8 or higher?

3/1/99 they were ranked #9 (AP) but #10 in Coaches Poll
The last time they were ranked higher than #9 was #8 on 3/1/60, and that's the highest they have ever been ranked.

When was the last time they were ranked in the Top 10 in the preseason?

Never, not even in the Rick Barry era. Their highest and only preseason ranking ever was #25 in the preseason of 1999-2000.

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/mifl/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/0708-mbb-guide-7.pdf

(mouse over the answers to read...)


Disclaimer...past performance is no indicator of future performance
 
tornado said:
and the few good teams they always get (Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, UConn, Tennessee, Oklahoma) they can never get those guys at home, and always have to leave Spokane to get those teams on the schedule, which makes it all the harder to beat them.
Click to expand...

cpacmel said:
In the last 5 years the following schools have played vs. the Zags in Spokane:

Washington State
Washington
Baylor
Virginia
Stanford
Georgia
Click to expand...

I think Tornado might be talking about all the nuetral games they settle for like these in the last 5 years:
vs UConn
vs Oklahoma
vs Tennessee
vs Georgia
vs Texas
Vs Georgia
vs Duke
vs Nevada
vs Oklahoma St
vs UMass
vs Georgia Tech
vs Oklahoma St
vs Missouri
vs Stanford
 
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