Tour de France- Lance Armstrong

[Da Coach]

This is shaping up to be a big story- Lance Armstrong came out of retirement, was not overly impressive in races he entered as warmups to this year's Tour de France, but is now looking great after today's 4th stage of the race.
The 37 year old Texan has won the race 7 times, but retired shortly after his last win in 2005. He was thought to have little or no chance this year because of his 4 year layoff.

Lance Armstrong's team won today's time-trial, and he pulled to 0.18 seconds of the Tour's overall leader.--

http://www.boston.com/sports/other_sports/cycling/articles/2009/07/07/menchov_crashes_during_tour_team_time_trial/

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/SPORT/07/07/cycling.tour.armstrong.astana/

Tour's main site-

http://www.letour.com/us/homepage_courseTDF.html

The mountain stages begin in a couple days, and Armstrong has always excelled in those climbing stages in previous years. However, there may be a problem. His teammate and race favorite, Alberto Contador, now sits in third place, 19 seconds behind Armstrong. Armstrong said before the race started that he would ride in support of the Spaniard, the 2007 winner of the Tour and Astana??™s designated team leader. Having Armstrong in a virtual tie for the race lead may instead force the 26-year-old Contador into the service of the Texan.

Here is an article about this possible split between these teammates--
Armstrong's tactics may split team

http://www.theage.com.au/news/sport/tourdefrance/armstrongs-tactics-may-split-team/2009/07/07/1246732331642.html

[SFP]

There is a long long way in this race to decide whom will ride for who. With the Pyrenees looming I'd say the race is just beginning. Lance is in a much better position then he though he would be in. I believe Lance can keep up with the top riders especially during the next 2 weeks but with the Alps coming last and the last 3 days being epic I'd bet that Lance will bonk somewhere and where in the past he could fight through it at age 37 he'll lose considerable time. If someone can do it it is him but history favors the 20 somethings. I'll predict a top 5 finish which in itself after not competing at that level for 3 years, his age and a collar bone break this year, that to me would be a win in itself.

[bigjimmy]

We'll certainly know more after this weekend. I'd look for Contador to be in attack mode on Friday as he'll be riding in front of his countrymen and the last 50KM of this stage is straight uphill. If Contador opens up any kind of a lead on Armstrong will Lance then ride in a support mode or if he's still close will he try for the win. After this weekend the next hard stage is on Friday the 17th. If Lance is within striking distance I think all bets will be off and it'll be every man for himself. Lance has won 7 Tour's and overcame cancer so it won't shock me if he if wins.

[Da Coach]

After Stage 5 today, the leaders remain the same. Frenchman Thomas Voelker won the 5th stage.--

http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/us/500/classement/index.html

Voelker wins as Armstrong stays second-

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/SPORT/07/08/cycling.tour.armstrong.cavendish.fifthstage/

[SFP]

Here's a great web-site to follow the Tour. http://www.steephill.tv/tour-de-france/

[SFP]

Stage 15 is when the Tour will show who the main contenders will be and if Lance has a shot. Tomorrow's race should be a lot like today's and then they will be riding in the flats where the sprinters will dominate. Stage 15 looks like a where I expect to see the top 5 GC racers show up. Right now there are 20 or so guys within striking distance.

[Da Coach]

After today's Stage 13, Lance is still in 3rd place, 8 seconds off the leader.

http://www.letour.fr/us/homepage_courseTDF.html

But the most bizarre and scary news from today's stage is this--
Two riders shot by BB gun during race-

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/tdf2009/news/story?id=4337158

.

[SFP]

Let's write off tomorrow's race as boring but Sunday's stage 15 will be the 2nd most exciting day.

Now Sunday is a different story. I expect to see Astana ride a quick temp on the next to last climb and there will only be a select group leading to the last climb. I will expect one of the secondary GC guys like Frank Schleck to attack early. He is a threat so someone will have to chase him down like Kloeden. Once the GC field catches up to him I'd expect to see Sastre counter attack and now the question is who will be able to bridge that gap. I'd expect to see Andy, Lance, Contador and perhaps Cadel chasing him. Cadel has the most to lose and Andy needs to start catching up prior to the TT if he wants a chance to win because even on Ventoux there is not enough mountain for him to take away substantial time from the GC guys. This race is really for either Armstrong or Contador to lose. I'd like to see it come down to Ventoux. I'd suspect that this will be their strategy going into Sunday. Together they can keep the other guys at bay, the TT will be a wash with both probably gaining time on the rivals except against Cadel, so it will come down to Ventoux unless one of the other riders proves championship form on Sunday. Sastre this year cannot just count on Ventoux to win, Cadel does not have the team, Christian could prove me wrong, Martin is too inexperience?, Andy needs to gain some serious time on Sunday and whatever he gains he may lose at the TT. I expect to see an exciting race on Ventoux no matter how you slice it.

[Da Coach]

Stage 15 today separated the riders somewhat. Alberto Contador, one of the favorites to win the overall tour, finished first to take the overall lead. But his teammate, 37 year-old Lance Armstrong, had another good day, and moved up to 2nd overall behind Contador.

Overall standings, Lance Armstrong #2-

http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/us/1500/classement/index.html

[SFP]

Lance had a great day for a 37 year old rider who just came back after 3 years of retirement. He kept up with the main guys but just did not have the legs to keep up with a few of them at the end when they attacked. He still is in great position to finish on the podium but I suspect it will be very close. Alberto will be Astana's main man for the rest of the Tour. In reality the race for the podium will be decided most probably next Saturday on Mt. Ventoux with Alberto being the overwhelming favorite to take the title back after not competing last year. He accelerated so fast that no one could catch him. Andy Schleck did an admirable job but even him a climbing specialist could not answer him.

[Da Coach]

Another surprisingly good day for Lance Armstrong on today's Stage 16, which included a couple very difficult mountain climbs. Many predicted Sunday's Stage 15 and today's Stage 16 through the Swiss, Italian, and French Alps would be where Lance started to fall back because of his age (37), his 3 1/2 years away from the sport, and his recent fractured collar bone. But he has surprised everyone with his ability to compete with the best bikers in the world. Lance finished 12th in today's stage, and stayed in 2nd place overall, 1 minute 37 seconds behind leader and teammmate Alberto Contador, who is a favorite to win the Tour.
There are 5 days left, with tomorrow's Stage 17 contains more grueling mountain climbs. Thursday's Stage 18 is a 40km time trial around Lake Annecy, and then the last 3 Stages head back to Paris. Unlike most years, Saturday's Stage 20 includes a tough mountain climb which could be to Armstrong's advantage.

http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/us/1600/journal_etape.html#zone134989

Standings-

http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/us/1600/classement/index.html

[SFP]

I predict tomorrow's stage will pretty much dictate the top 5 finishers and hopefully Lance will be able to recover from the great day he had today and stay in his postion. He was around 35 seconds at one point from the lead group and he was capable of losing Cadel Evans and rejoin the main group. Fantastic riding!

It is looking like stage 20 will be as an exciting race as there has been up the fabled Mount Ventoux. It is an out of category climb which Lance has been pointing to since they announced the course. The possibility of gaining 2 minutes or losing 5 minutes on anyone is quite a possibility on this last climb of the race. I love it when they have mountain top finishes nd this one is the grand daddy of them all.

[Da Coach]

Just finished watching Stage 17 of the Tour de France. It was the last of the Alps, but included 5 mountain passes that separated the bikers a little.
Again, Lance Armstrong had a great day. He showed that at age 37 he is still a great mountain climber and descender. He finished 5th in today's stage, but he finished 2 minutes 18 second behind a trio of riders that included race-leader and Armstrong's teammate Alberto Contador, Frank Schleck, and Andy Scheck. As a result, Lance fell slightly, to 4th place overall, and he's now 3 minutes 55 seconds behind race-leader Alberto Contador. However, he is just 30 seconds behind 3rd place rider Frank Schleck.

It now looks unlikely Lance could make up nearly 4 minutes on Contador, who looks like the strongest rider in the Tour. There are 4 stages left, including a time-trial tomorrow, which Armstrong usually does well in. But it appears more likely that Lance is riding for a 2nd or 3rd place finish at best. Still unbelieveable considering Lance's age of 37, and his 3 1/2 years away from cycling, and his injury just a few months ago.

http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/us/1700/classement/index.html

If anyone else is watching the Tour de France, does it seem that the announcers have a real love affair with the Scheck brothers from Luxembourg?

[SFP]

The announcers are also a homer with Wiggins! Also for those that follow biking Alberto Contador's tactics really hurt team Astana'a secondary goal of finishing 1,2,3. They had a chance of finishing that way after today but AC decided for some unknown reason to attack on the climb which left Kloeden behind. He did not have to attack and Lance was playing the team game in which he stuck to Wiggins to help the overall chances for the team not himself. I believe if Lance was not on AC's team he would be sitting in 2nd right now.

AC will win but I wonder who will be his teammate next year?

I predict that Lance will come in 2nd when this race is all said and done.

[Da Coach]

Today's Stage 18 was a 40.5 km time trial around Lake Annecy.
Lance Armstrong did well, and finished with the 16th best time. In the past years when he won the Tour de France 7 times, he dominated most of the time trials.
Lance gained time on the 2 riders directly ahead of him, but he lost 1:30 to the race leader Alberto Contador, who had the best time in the time trial and widened his overall lead. Barring a catastrophe, Contador will win the overall race easily. Lance now is in 3rd place overall with 3 days left. Friday's stage 19 is a relatively flat stage with litttle chance for any rider to gain time. Saturday's Stage 20 has a difficult mountain climb that may be the last chance for Armstrong to climb into 2nd place if he still has anything left. And the final stage on Sunday is the ride into Paris. Armstrong will have to finish strong just to hold onto 3rd place, as there are 3 quality riders within 34 seconds behind him.

Current standings-

http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/us/1800/classement/index.html