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I have a feeling we will be closer to 144 then to 100 in this pole. I am going with we will be listed 129. Losing our guards and some unknown we will not get any respect. CU, ISU SIU and DU will get the respect in our league, until we can prove it on the court.
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I am afrraid that you have hit it on the head houston. Very few if any magazines will pick BU higher then 5th. The real question is that high enough. It seems that when we get picked to finish high we finish lower and when we are picked to finish lower we do very well like 2 years ago.Originally posted by houstontxbrave View Post
my pick 102-next March though we go dancing-I hopeComment
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I actually find Bradley somewhat hard to predict for next season. I like to look at a team's statistical profile and try to project how it might change based on the personnel changes. Here's all the numbers for Bradley:
http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Bradley&y=2008
First, a look at the offensive side. Bradley had a very good offense last season - they finished 45th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The strengths of the offense were 3-point shooting and ball movement. Bradley was 28th in the nation in terms of the proportion of their shots taken from downtown, and shot them at a 37.4% clip - good for 73rd in the nation. Bradley was pretty average in terms of turnovers, two-point shooting, and getting to the foul line, and was below average in terms of offensive rebounding.
I see a slight dropoff in 3-point shooting, simply because Ruffin and Crouch shot and made so many of them. I do expect improvement from Warren and Maniscalco, and the new guards sound like good shooters, but I still think that facet of the offense won't be quite as good.
I think offensive rebounding should improve quite a bit, just by playing the returning big guys more (Collins, Singh, and Austin). If the big guys can increase their minutes while getting their turnovers under control, the offensive rebounding improvement will help make up for some of the lost shooting. Also, the returning big guys all shoot 60%+ from the field, so the 2-point shooting figures to improve as well.
Overall, I expect a slight dropoff offensively for Bradley this year, simply because Ruffin and Crouch were both such good offensive players. Let's say the Bradley offense drops from 45th to 60th (just a guess, really, but seems reasonable to me).
Defensively, Bradley finished 143rd in the nation in adjusted efficiency - this is the side that needs real improvement. The only real strength was getting steals, in which Bradley finished 66th. Every other category was below-average, but the worst ones were 3-point FG defense, defensive rebounding, and shotblocking. I've got to think that the latter two can be shored up simply by giving more minutes to big men, especially David Collins. Anthony Thompson may prove to be a major shotblocking factor as well. I do think the Bradley defense will improve, but the real question is how much. I think a reasonable expectation would be for the defensive to be something like 90th in the nation, which is in line with past Jim Les teams (except for the excellent Sweet Sixteen team).
Combining these offensive (60th) and defensive (90th) efficiencies would give you a team somewhere in the 70-75th range. So, that would be my baseline expectation, which with normal luck would be an NIT team. I think Bradley definitely has upside beyond that, and could turn into MVC champs and an NCAA Tournament team if things break right.
I have a feeling that this countdown will put Bradley worse than that, simply because Ruffin and Crouch are high-profile losses. I think the returning players form a solid enough core that not much is even needed from the new players to have a top 100 team.Comment
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#142 is St. John's
142 St. John's
143 Alabama A&M
144 Colorado
You can use this to tell who he thinks the best of the best are...the Top 64..
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#141 is Charleston
141 Charleston
142 St. John's
143 Alabama A&M
144 ColoradoComment
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mportsch I like your rational but I believe our defensive philosophy will be a bit different than last year. We will be pressing a bit more if not a lot more and I expect us to get more turnovers and easy baskets. We have the personel this year to press and press some more sort of like SIU but with some real shooters on the O. Everybodies 3 pt shooting will go down this year due to the line change so we will need to make up for it by getting easier baskets."Educate and inform the whole mass of the people...they are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty."
??” Thomas Jefferson
sigpicComment
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You make some good points, SFPete. Forcing more turnovers would definitely be another way to improve the defense, and Bradley does seem to have the personnel to do it. Even if you go with Wilson at PF, you've got a shotblocker in Collins that can help out if guys get beat from pressuring too close. I still believe that defensive rebounding is an area that must improve, but forcing more turnovers is always a great thing, as it can also lead to easy offense.Comment
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#140 is Fairfield
seriously....these guys were 14-16 last year but 11-7 against their weak Metro Atlantic opponents
and only 3-9 against a non-conference schedule that was rated 217,
and they lost to teams whose RPIs were as high as 313 & 318!
But who knows, they may put together a Drake-type season!
140 Fairfield
141 Charleston
142 St. John's
143 Alabama A&M
144 Colorado
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#139 is Winthrop
They were 22-12 last year but lost their four best players!
139 Winthrop
140 Fairfield
141 Charleston
142 St. John's
143 Alabama A&M
144 ColoradoComment
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#138 is UCSB (Cal-Santa Barbara) - even without Sean Harris!!
#137 is Houston - 8th in CUSA!! Just who in CUSA is going to be better besides Memphis & UAB?
Recap...
137 Houston
138 UCSB
139 Winthrop
140 Fairfield
141 Charleston
142 St. John's
143 Alabama A&M
144 ColoradoComment
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ok.. eights are wild.....put me down for #88.Bradley 72 - Illini 68 Final
???It??™s awful hard,??™??™ said Illini freshman guard D.J. Richardson, the former Central High School guard who played prep school ball a few miles from here and fought back tears outside the locker room. ???It??™s a hometown thing. It??™s bragging rights.??™Comment
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Houston will not be 8th in CUSA, they lose quite a bit but they still have a realtively deep team.Originally posted by MacabreMob View Post
I do think UTEP, Tulsa, UAB and Memphis will be the class of that conference this season.Comment
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#135 is Mount Saint Mary's
#134 is our first Valley team, Wichita State picked to finish 7th in the Valley.
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The first sentence reads like this: "There is simply way too much talent and athleticism on this team for Wichita State to stay towards the bottom on the conference."
Yet he has them picked at #7 in our conference. Does anyone else think that this is on the bottom of the conference. Granted it might not be the "basement" but if BU finished 7th out of a 10 team conference I would consider that the bottom.
I have a feeling this is where this guy is heading...(i know the last 3 won't be listed)
cu
du
siu
isu
bu
i.st.
w.st.
uni
mo.st.
ue
which i think DU is going to be a vastly overrated team purely because of last year, but you never know...it could happenComment
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