MVC numbers to consider

[braveatheart]

Have not seen anybody summarize these numbers for the MVC schools. Lets hear what you all think.

School W/L Pomeroy RPI Sagarin Average Experience

Drake 15-3 24 10 15 16 2.2 (24)
Illst 13-5 60 35 43 46 2.1 (50)
SoIll 11-7 63 61 65 63 2.2 (33)
Creight 10-8 65 48 50 54 1.5 (28 )
Bradley 9-9 85 103 91 93 2.0 (86)
NoIowa 9-9 116 132 105 118 1.7 (175)
MissrSt 8-10 82 125 99 102 2.4 (13)
IndSt 8-10 125 128 127 127 1.5 (222)
WichSt 4-14 136 199 163 166 2.0 (89)
Evansv 3-15 199 252 212 221 1.3 (284)

Let me clarify the numbers. The average collumn is just an average of the Pomeroy ranking,the RPI as listed by Pomeroy and the Sagarin rank. The experience number is from Pomeroy. The first number shows years of experience average for each team and the second number shows national rank.
Experience looks like a pretty good predictor of league finish with three major exceptions. Missouri State had a very experienced team and didn't produce. Creighton had a very inexperienced team and overachieved. Wichita State had about Bradley's experience level and underachieved.
As it stands right now Bradley's experience number will be 1.9 next year. This kind of inplies another middle of the pack year. I don't know about the other teams but would guess Drake, SoIll and MissrSt all go backwards too.
Maybe our guys will play above this as next year we will have many more people with D1 experience.
What does everyone think?

[Big Mike]

welcome to the board bh............thats a lot to digest....tell me how you arrive at the # for next season?

[braveatheart]

Thanks for the welcome Big Mike. Don't know how to get the columns right. Sorry about that.
It looks like Pomeroy gives 1 year experience to sophmores, 2 years for juniors and 3 years for seniors. At this point we have 5 seniors for 15 yrs, three juniors for 6 yrs and 2 sophmores for 2 years. Total of 23 years divided by 12 players at this point. 1.9 years average.
Make sense?

[Big Mike]

I don't have any #'s other than stats from this season....but with AW, SM and TW all coming back I like our chances next year! If RA can get some help from AT, WE or DC we will be sitting pretty good IMO! There will be all sorts of guard help from TCS, RT, EM, DD, and CR so far with at least one more kid coming if not 2!

PS....the only way to keep the columns in order is to use these dots............

[MacabreMob]

I want "under-the-radar" projections.

Seems like we out-do our expectations when we are projected to be so-so (or worse).

[braveatheart]

Let me try again with the ....

School...W/L....Pomeroy....RPI....Sagarin.....Average...Exper ience

Drake...15-3....24............10......15...........16........ ...2.2 (24)
IllSt.....13-5....60.............35......43...........46....... ...2.1 (50)
SoIll.....11-7....63............61.......65...........63....... ...2.2 (33)
Creight.10-8....65............48.......50...........54....... ...1.5 (23
Bradley.9-9.....85............103......91...........93...... ....2.0 (86)
NoIowa.9-9.....116..........132......105..........118...... ..1.7 (175)
MisrSt...8-10...82............125......99...........102...... ...2.4 (13)
IndSt....8-10...125..........128......127..........127....... ..1.5 (222)
WichSt..4-14...136..........199......163..........166....... ..2.0 (89)
Evansv..3-15...199..........252......212..........221....... ..1.3 (284)

Hope that is easier to read.