Missouri Valley Conference Standings - 2/26/08 with tiebreakers

[BUBraves2006]

Bradley has locked up at least 6th place in the Valley. We will not be in the play-in game.

If Northern Iowa beats Indiana State tomorrow, we are assured to finish no lower than 5th.

Essentially, Saturday's game at Creighton will likely just be a game to decide which color jerseys are worn when we have to play them again 6 days later in St. Louis.

The likely seeding breakdown is as follows (there are some other crazy scenarios, but I'm not going to bank on stuff like Creighton winning at IlSU on their senior night):

Drake - 1
Southern Ill. - 2 or 3 (win and they finish second, amazingly)
Illinois State - 2 or 3 (likely third, unless they can win in Carbondale)
Creighton - 4 or 5 (determined Saturday against BU)
Bradley - 4 or 5 (again, determined head-to-head Saturday)
Indiana State - 5, 6 or 7 (would take a lot of scenarios for them to get to 5th, but 6th is most likely ... will hold tiebreaker points advantage over UNI)
Northern Iowa - 6, 7 or 8 (likely 7th, but could sink to 8th ... MSU will have the tiebreaker points advantage as well)
Missouri State - 7 or 8 (A win at Indiana State Saturday would likely get them 7th, but 8th is the most likely finish)
Wichita State - 9 or 10 (9th unless Evansville can beat UNI at home)
Evansville - 9 or 10 (see above)

[MacabreMob]

Thanks a ton for keepin us all up to speed on this.

[Bravesfan]

Bradley has locked up at least 6th place in the Valley. We will not be in the play-in game.

If Northern Iowa beats Indiana State tomorrow, we are assured to finish no lower than 5th.

Essentially, Saturday's game at Creighton will likely just be a game to decide which color jerseys are worn when we have to play them again 6 days later in St. Louis.

The likely seeding breakdown is as follows (there are some other crazy scenarios, but I'm not going to bank on stuff like Creighton winning at IlSU on their senior night):

Drake - 1
Southern Ill. - 2 or 3 (win and they finish second, amazingly)
Illinois State - 2 or 3 (likely third, unless they can win in Carbondale)
Creighton - 4 or 5 (determined Saturday against BU)
Bradley - 4 or 5 (again, determined head-to-head Saturday)
Indiana State - 5, 6 or 7 (would take a lot of scenarios for them to get to 5th, but 6th is most likely ... will hold tiebreaker points advantage over UNI)
Northern Iowa - 6, 7 or 8 (likely 7th, but could sink to 8th ... MSU will have the tiebreaker points advantage as well)
Missouri State - 7 or 8 (A win at Indiana State Saturday would likely get them 7th, but 8th is the most likely finish)
Wichita State - 9 or 10 (9th unless Evansville can beat UNI at home)
Evansville - 9 or 10 (see above)

Interesting scenerios for postseason play. Starting with Bradley, I still think we need one more win to lock up an NIT/CBI berth. Fifth place though might get us an NIT/CBI road game even at 17-15, IF we are lucky. More importantly, if we make it past the first round of the Valley tourney, we get the pleasure of playing a "slumping" Drake team in the semifinals. This is definately winnable with Ruffin since Drake is now experiencing the rigors of an entire Valley season with a few bumps and bruises of late. If we make it past Drake, and NIT/CBI home game is certainly possible, but an at-large bid to the NCAA's is just about out of the question with tonight's loss. A win against SIU or ISU (unless something strange happens and we end up with UNI or MSU! ) will make an already turbulent season feel a whole lot better!

Things get more interesting beyond Drake. First, the top five teams in the Valley, and possibly InSt if they finish sixth should be invited to at least the NIT or CBI. After that, NCAA Tournament scenerios start with SIU. If SIU now finishes even in a tie for second, and loses in the Valley final to someone other than Drake or ISU, an at-large bid is possible for SIU due to their difficult schedule and recent great play. ISU has a case for an at-large bid, but the committee probably passes over ISU in favor of SIU due to their better SOS, and since the committee can say they already took one of the second place teams (if they are tied which may very well happen). ISU still has a case though, and though extremely unlikely, four bids is possible if someone other than these three teams win the Valley tournament, though that would take a certain alignment of the stars and planets for that to happen!

If Drake wins the tourney, and either ISU or SIU is the loser of the final, I can see the loser earning an at-large bid, with a possibility of both or neither making it. Most likely though the loser gets in since they made it further than the other team, and the Valley is now just strong enough thanks to the Bracketbuster to support that second at-large team.

And of course, if someone from fourth place on down wins the tourney, the selection committee can take a nap for fifteen minutes in that things become very easy with Drake and the tourney winner representing the Valley in the NCAA Tournament this year!

[Garland 22]

If someone other than Drake wins the tourney, don't be suprised if the Bulldogs play in the NIT.

Seems improbable, but ask Barry Hinson about improbable. Look at the Bear's resume the last two years and compare that to Drake's resume this year. Remember the Valley's gotten basically no love this year and the Bears had a win over a top 5 team last year and didn't get in.

Drake loses on saturday and then bombs to MSU or UNI (both capable of beating them) on day 1 of the tourney, and everybodies darling quickly starts sweating the committee.

[BU_EMT128]

If someone other than Drake wins the tourney, don't be suprised if the Bulldogs play in the NIT.

Seems improbable, but ask Barry Hinson about improbable. Look at the Bear's resume the last two years and compare that to Drake's resume this year. Remember the Valley's gotten basically no love this year and the Bears had a win over a top 5 team last year and didn't get in.

Drake loses on saturday and then bombs to MSU or UNI (both capable of beating them) on day 1 of the tourney, and everybodies darling quickly starts sweating the committee.

I was just getting ready to say something similar, however... Drake is still an tourney team, just no longer a 4 or 5 seed.

[Bravesfan]

If someone other than Drake wins the tourney, don't be suprised if the Bulldogs play in the NIT.

Seems improbable, but ask Barry Hinson about improbable. Look at the Bear's resume the last two years and compare that to Drake's resume this year. Remember the Valley's gotten basically no love this year and the Bears had a win over a top 5 team last year and didn't get in.

Drake loses on saturday and then bombs to MSU or UNI (both capable of beating them) on day 1 of the tourney, and everybodies darling quickly starts sweating the committee.

Drake's not going to the NIT. First of all, the MAJOR difference between Drake this year and MSU the last two years is that Drake won the Valley! I don't know if there has ever been a case where the regular season winner of the #8 ranked conference has ever missed the NCAA tournament.

Second, only if they lose the next two games can I see them sweating a bit. But even there they still most likely make the tournament. They may only earn a 10 or 11 seed at worse, but they will still be there. If they take care of business Saturday and lose in the first round of the Valley tourney, they probably earn the dreaded 8 or 9 seed. If they make the Valley semis, they probably still get a 7 seed. Finals should get them a 6 or 7, and winning the whole thing probably gets them a 5 or 6. Any of these scenerios still look great considering where they have been the last 37 years!

Btw, if they can't beat a horrible Wichita St team at home on Saturday afternoon, then they have more serious issues than where they will be seeded. That ain't happening!