Bubble Watch: Why BU's non-conference schedule did them in

[BradleyBrave]

Here's Andy Glockner's current 'Bubble Watch' on ESPN.com -

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=69

I can't say I disagree with too much of it except for maybe SIU being in the 'Work left to do' category. I started this thread because I still really believe our non-conference schedule is what is ultimately doing us in right now. Yes, we can point to DR's injuries and inexcuseable home losses to UNI and WSU as just as big of factors (especially RPI-wise), but starting the season at UIC in a total trap game is just as much of a killer. When I see Creighton the bubble with a 103 non-con and see who they played to get that gaudy non-con mark, it makes me wonder why we had to make things so hard on ourselves early on with so many new faces. I hope we don't make the same mistake again next year.

[real fan]

The schedule is made up in advance so we do not know who is going to be good or bad; the 3 home losses when Ruffin was out is the difference maker.

[BradleyBrave]

The schedule is made up in advance so we do not know who is going to be good or bad; the 3 home losses when Ruffin was out is the difference maker.

Opening at UIC is never a good idea. It may sound like a BCS-type way of thinking, but there's a lot more 'bad' that can come out of that game than 'good'. 18-11 instead of 17-12 has us on the bubble right now IMO, especially with an injury consideration.

[MacabreMob]

I didn't read much of the link you provided....

just offering this...

Kentucky

Non-Conference RPI 203
Non-Conference SOS 93

Bradley

Non-Con RPI 80
Non-Con SOS 59

Mouthpieces saying Kentucky is IN.

[JBinPeoria]

I think the way for Bradley to make its way back to the national recognition it deserves is by scheduling pre-season non-conference games against competitive teams. Teams in the MVC will never get any respect by the committee short of winning the conference tournament unless they show that they have marquee victories against national powerhouses. In years where MVC teams have knocked off some of these BCS teams, it helps the RPI and people will think MVC is a legitimate league that deserves multiple bids. If we don't do that, we leave the automatic bid to whoever makes the best run on one single weekend in March. Plus, a decent preseason non-conference schedule builds good experience and is fun for the fans.

[BradleyBrave]

I think the way for Bradley to make its way back to the national recognition it deserves is by scheduling pre-season non-conference games against competitive teams. Teams in the MVC will never get any respect by the committee short of winning the conference tournament unless they show that they have marquee victories against national powerhouses. In years where MVC teams have knocked off some of these BCS teams, it helps the RPI and people will think MVC is a legitimate league that deserves multiple bids. If we don't do that, we leave the automatic bid to whoever makes the best run on one single weekend in March. Plus, a decent preseason non-conference schedule builds good experience and is fun for the fans.

I agree with you 100%, but UIC doesn't command national respect and doesn't earn you any extra respect if you go to the Pavilion and win. BU had little to gain and everything to lose in that game. And lose they did.

[BU ICEMAN]

OK, if not UIC then where/who? If we open with a cupcake, how many people start clamoring that we need a better opponent so our RPI doesn't suffer? I can't imagine you want a game like Michigan State to start off the year, either though, right? UIC falls somewhere in the middle. I guess you can have a case with the open at home vs. the open on the road argument, but I don't care where we play UIC, we should beat 'em.

As for MM's BU vs. Kentucky stat, we all always have to keep in mind that there's lies, **************** lies, and statistics.....that being said, if you ever want to make a case for a team getting in on their past rep, that just might be your best example.

And I don't understand the Creighton love-fest either. Is it possible that they and Altman have built up enough rep over the past 5-6 years to be a perennial bubble team from the MVC? Looks that way....

[BradleyBrave]

OK, if not UIC then where/who? If we open with a cupcake, how many people start clamoring that we need a better opponent so our RPI doesn't suffer? I can't imagine you want a game like Michigan State to start off the year, either though, right? UIC falls somewhere in the middle. I guess you can have a case with the open at home vs. the open on the road argument, but I don't care where we play UIC, we should beat 'em.

As for MM's BU vs. Kentucky stat, we all always have to keep in mind that there's lies, **************** lies, and statistics.....that being said, if you ever want to make a case for a team getting in on their past rep, that just might be your best example.

And I don't understand the Creighton love-fest either. Is it possible that they and Altman have built up enough rep over the past 5-6 years to be a perennial bubble team from the MVC? Looks that way....

A home game against any team below 200 RPI would have us in virtually the same spot SOS-wise as we are now, but with an RPI 10-20 spots better and a record that looks better. Opening on the road against a middle-of-the-road team in an inferior conference doesn't benefit BU very much, win or lose. CU is getting notice because of record and reputation. Better scheduling would have us at least halfway there.

[MacabreMob]

perception = reality