Tweet
Upon analyzing the final three weeks of the conference season (5 games per school), both Creighton and Southern Illinois have the most control over what seeding they will have in the conference tournament. The Bluejays sit perched, pardon the pun, on top of the congested heap of teams from 3rd to 7th place. They??™ve earned a split against SIU and still have two games against Bradley. If they control their home court and win at Evansville, Creighton will probably earn the 3rd seed. Southern has a bit bigger of a hill to climb to get to third, but it??™s possible (see below).
Key game #1 ??“ Wed., 2/13 ??“ Drake at Southern Illinois
This might be the biggest game left in the conference season. Drake will take it??™s incredible run of perfection into everyone??™s house of horrors ??“ SIU Arena. No MVC team has won in Carbondale this year, and not many EVER do. SIU will be looking to recover after a 19-point beatdown by Creighton Sunday. If SIU can pull the upset, they will have a huge advantage in the MVC tiebreaker system.
(Similar implications, if Bradley could win at Drake on 2/19, it would have a similar effect on the Braves chances at the 3 or 4 seed)
Key game #2 ??“ Wed., 2/27 ??“ Indiana State at Northern Iowa
Most will overlook this game right now, but it may very well decide who stays out of the play-in game at the MVC tournament. Indiana State will likely be 6-10 and the Panthers at 7-9 going into that game. If the Sycamores could pull off a rare road win, they??™d hold the tiebreaker over Northern Iowa and will almost certainly get the 6th seed.
Key game(s) #3(4) ??“ Sat., 3/1 ??“ Bradley at Creighton (Also, Illinois State at Southern Ill.)
Braves fans, if you want Bradley to take the third seed, this is the game we??™ll need to get. There??™s a great chance that Bradley, Creighton and SIU could all be tied for third at 10-7 going into the final game of the season. The loser of the Bradley/Creighton game will get the fifth seed, as I expect SIU to hold the tiebreaker point advantage over Bradley and Creighton when the season ends. The winner of the Bradley/Creighton game will probably finish 4th, unless my prediction fails of the Salukis toppling both Drake and ISU at home. I have no idea if Bradley will win at Creighton, but my gut feeling says the Jays squeak one out and we have to play a REMATCH just six days later in St. Louis.
All of this stuff could blow up after this week, but those are my thoughts at this point.
Key game #1 ??“ Wed., 2/13 ??“ Drake at Southern Illinois
This might be the biggest game left in the conference season. Drake will take it??™s incredible run of perfection into everyone??™s house of horrors ??“ SIU Arena. No MVC team has won in Carbondale this year, and not many EVER do. SIU will be looking to recover after a 19-point beatdown by Creighton Sunday. If SIU can pull the upset, they will have a huge advantage in the MVC tiebreaker system.
(Similar implications, if Bradley could win at Drake on 2/19, it would have a similar effect on the Braves chances at the 3 or 4 seed)
Key game #2 ??“ Wed., 2/27 ??“ Indiana State at Northern Iowa
Most will overlook this game right now, but it may very well decide who stays out of the play-in game at the MVC tournament. Indiana State will likely be 6-10 and the Panthers at 7-9 going into that game. If the Sycamores could pull off a rare road win, they??™d hold the tiebreaker over Northern Iowa and will almost certainly get the 6th seed.
Key game(s) #3(4) ??“ Sat., 3/1 ??“ Bradley at Creighton (Also, Illinois State at Southern Ill.)
Braves fans, if you want Bradley to take the third seed, this is the game we??™ll need to get. There??™s a great chance that Bradley, Creighton and SIU could all be tied for third at 10-7 going into the final game of the season. The loser of the Bradley/Creighton game will get the fifth seed, as I expect SIU to hold the tiebreaker point advantage over Bradley and Creighton when the season ends. The winner of the Bradley/Creighton game will probably finish 4th, unless my prediction fails of the Salukis toppling both Drake and ISU at home. I have no idea if Bradley will win at Creighton, but my gut feeling says the Jays squeak one out and we have to play a REMATCH just six days later in St. Louis.
All of this stuff could blow up after this week, but those are my thoughts at this point.