TAS Bracketology

[Bravesfan]

MVC = 2 bids

Maybe 3

IMO

Well I'll take two bids after where the conference was about a month ago. I'm just saying that I believe we now have two teams in at-large contention now that ISU has separated themselves from the pack a bit. Not what I thought would happen after tonight, but that's why they play the games.

[BUBraves2006]

You know what we could use? A Bradleyfans selection committee. I'd be interested to see what the collective minds here could come up with.

Any way we could organize this, mods? I think this is a fun idea. We could have people select who should be in (including seeding). I could create another excel sheet that would calculate our board's overall average seedings and place teams in/out and up/down on the board accordingly. I'm sure we'd need to set more parameters, but this could be fun!

[TheAsianSensation]

Any way we could organize this, mods? I think this is a fun idea. We could have people select who should be in (including seeding). I could create another excel sheet that would calculate our board's overall average seedings and place teams in/out and up/down on the board accordingly. I'm sure we'd need to set more parameters, but this could be fun!

We have the chat room....

[TheAsianSensation]

For giggles:

http://www.sportsline.com/mcc/blogs/view/6361140

We're projected in somewhere :P

[TheAsianSensation]

You can't be more of a lock than these teams:

Ivy: Cornell (19-5)

Automatic bid conferences and their leaders
Summit: Oral Roberts (20-8 )
MAAC: Siena (19-10)
WAC: Boise St (21-7)
Patriot: American (18-11)
Big West: CS-Northridge (18-8 )
Atl Sun: Belmont (21-8 )
Big Sky: Portland St (18-9)
AEast: UMBC (20-8 )
OVC: Austin Peay (21-10)
N'east: Robert Morris (25-6)
Big South: NC-Asheville (17-8 )
MEAC: Morgan St (18-9)
SWAC: Alabama St (13-9)
Southland: Lamar (14-9) * in as leader, only Stephen F Austin harbors an at-large hope


The battle for the 1 line:
Tennessee (25-3), Memphis (28-1), Duke (25-3), North Carolina (27-2), UCLA (25-3), Texas (23-5), Kansas (25-3)

The battle for a top 3 seed:
Xavier (25-4), Georgetown (24-4), Louisville (24-6), Stanford (24-4), Wisconsin (24-4), Vanderbilt (24-5), Notre Dame (22-6), Purdue (23-6), Connecticut (23-6), Indiana (24-5)

Other locks:
Drake (23-4), Michigan St (23-6), Clemson (20-7), Washington St (22-7), Marquette (20-7), Gonzaga (23-6), Butler (27-3)

90% locks, it would take a monumental collapse:
BYU (23-6), Mississippi St (20-8 ), USC (18-10), South Alabama (23-5), St Mary's (23-5)

Should feel relatively safe barring an inconvenient 3-game losing streak:
Oklahoma (19-10), Pittsburgh (20-9), Miami (19-8 ), West Virginia (20-9), UNLV (21-6), Kansas St (17-10)

Bubble, safe for now:
Baylor (19-8 ), Arkansas (19-9), Kent St (23-6), Illinois St (21-8 )

Next 4 in:
Texas A&M (20-8 )
Massachusetts (19-9)
Davidson (22-6) *in as autobid
Arizona St (18-10)
Virginia Tech (17-11)

Last 4 in:
VCU (23-6) *in as autobid
Maryland (18-12)
Florida (21-8 )
Western Kentucky (22-6)
Kentucky (16-11)

Last 4 out:
New Mexico (22-7)
Syracuse (17-12)
St Joseph's (17-10)
UAB (21-8 )

Next 4 out:
Southern Illinois (17-13)
Texas Tech (15-13)
Dayton (18-9)
Villanova (17-11)

On the board:
Ohio St (17-12), Temple (16-12), Rhode Island (21-9), Stephen F Austin (19-4), Houston (21-7), Florida St (17-12)

Really in trouble, barely alive:
Oklahoma St (15-12), Wake Forest (16-11), Seton Hall (17-12), George Mason (20-10), Creighton (19-9), Mississippi (19-9), Ohio (18-10)

[TheAsianSensation]

Update tonight?

It's possible


It appears we won't have enough for a mock selection committee here. Oh well.

[TheAsianSensation]

Locks:
Siena (21-10), San Diego (20-13), Cornell (21-5), Winthrop (20-11), Belmont (24-8 ), Austin Peay (24-10), George Mason (22-10), Drake (26-4), Davidson (24-6)

Current projected one-bidders, with their leaders:
Big Sky - Portland St (19-9)
SWAC - Alabama St (16-9)
MEAC - Morgan St (19-9)
AEast - UMBC (22-8 )
N'east - Sacred Heart (18-13)
Summit - Oral Roberts (25-6)
WAC - Utah St (22-9)
S'land - Lamar (15-10) *I suppose we're STILL calling SFA a candidate for now
Big West - UC-Santa Barbara (22-7)
Patriot - American (20-11)

The battle for the 1 line:
North Carolina (29-2), Duke (26-4), Texas (25-5), Kansas (27-3), UCLA (27-3), Memphis (30-1), Tennessee (27-3)

The battle for protected seeding:
Clemson (21-8 ), Stanford (24-6), Washington St (23-7), Drake (26-4), Georgetown (25-4), Louisville (24-7), Notre Dame (24-6), Connecticut (24-7), Wisconsin (26-4), Purdue (24-7), Indiana (25-6), Xavier (26-5)

Other locks:
USC (20-10), Kansas St (19-10), Oklahoma (21-10), Kentucky (18-11), Mississippi St (21-9), Vanderbilt (25-6), Marquette (21-8 ), Michigan St (24-7), BYU (25-6), Butler (28-3), Kent St (25-6), Gonzaga (25-7)

Should be good to go, but we've seen crazier things happen:
Miami (20-9), Baylor (20-9), West Virginia (21-9), Pittsburgh (21-9), South Alabama (24-6)

Current tally: 24 teams for 11 spots:

Above the fracas for now:
UNLV (22-7), St Mary's (24-6), Illinois St (23-9)

Next 4 in:
VCU (24-7)
Massachusetts (21-9)
Arkansas (21-10)
Texas A&M (21-9)

Last 4 in:
New Mexico (24-7)
Oregon (18-12)
Arizona (17-13)
Western Kentucky (24-6)

Last 4 out:
Virginia Tech (18-12)
Syracuse (19-12)
Maryland (18-13)
Ohio St (19-12)

Next 4 out:
Arizona St (19-11)
St Joseph's (18-11)
Florida (21-10)
Dayton (20-9)

On the board
Temple (18-12)
Stephen F Austin (21-4)
Mississippi (21-9)
UAB (22-9)
Villanova (19-11)


NIT here:
NC-Asheville (19-9)
Robert Morris (26-7)

17 NIT spots left. These figure to at least be locks.
Southern Illinois (17-14), Creighton (20-10), Houston (22-8 ), Florida St (18-13), Wake Forest (17-12), Texas Tech (15-14)

11 NIT spots left. Here's your bubble, and about half of these teams will be gone with the NIT autobids anyways.
Nebraska (18-11), Oklahoma St (15-14), Seton Hall (17-14), Minnesota (18-12), Cleveland St (19-11), Rhode Island (21-10), San Diego St (18-11), Akron (21-9), Washington (16-15), Wright St (21-10), Charlotte (18-12)


16 CBI spots?
Georgia Tech (14-16), Cincinnati (13-17), Providence (15-15), Valparaiso (19-13), Ohio (19-11), Richmond (16-13), UTEP (17-12), Sam Houston St (18-7), Nevada (19-10), Boise St (21-8 ), New Mexico St (18-13), IUPUI (22-6), Bradley (17-15), California (15-14), CS-Fullerton (20-8 ), CS-Northridge (19-9)

Realistic CBI options beyond this. Make your own judgements.
Virginia (15-14), Boston College (13-16), North Carolina St (15-15), Missouri (16-15), Alabama (16-15), Penn St (15-15), MiamiOH (15-14), Western Michigan (19-11), Duquense (17-12), St Louis (15-14), Northern Iowa (17-14), Missouri St (16-16), Indiana St (14-16), Air Force (14-13), Utah (15-13), Central Florida (16-14), Pacific (20-9), Georgia Southern (18-12), Rider (23-9), Wagner (23-8 ), Brown (19-9), NC-Wilmington (20-13), Old Dominion (17-15)

[TheAsianSensation]

EAST

@Raleigh
1) North Carolina (29-2) vs. 16) Alabama St (16-9)/Sacred Heart (18-13)
8 )Kent St (25-6) vs. 9) Pittsburgh (21-9)

@Denver
4) Indiana (25-6) vs. 13) George Mason (23-10)
5) Washington St (23-7) vs. 12) VCU (24-7)

@Omaha
3) Wisconsin (26-4) vs. 14) American (20-11)
6) BYU (25-6) vs. 11) Arizona (17-13)

@Birmingham
2) Georgetown (25-4) vs. 15) Winthrop (20-11)
7) Mississippi St (21-9) vs. 10) Illinois St (23-9)


WEST

@Anaheim
1) UCLA (27-3) vs. 16) Lamar (15-10)
8 )Kentucky (18-11) vs. 9) Baylor (20-9)

@Little Rock
4) Notre Dame (24-6) vs. 13) Siena (22-10)
5) Purdue (24-7) vs. 12) Texas A&M (21-9)

@D.C.
3) Xavier (26-5) vs. 14) UC-Santa Barbara (22-7)
6) Marquette (21-8 ) vs. 11) New Mexico (24-7)

@Raleigh
2) Duke (26-4) vs. 15) Austin Peay (24-10)
7) Oklahoma (21-10) vs. 10) St Mary's (24-6)



MIDWEST

@Little Rock
1) Memphis (30-1) vs. 16) UMBC (22-8 )
8 )Kansas St (19-10) vs. 9) South Alabama (24-6)

@Denver
4) Drake (26-4) vs. 13) Oral Roberts (22-8 )
5) Vanderbilt (25-6) vs. 12) Oregon (18-12)

@D.C.
3) Connecticut (24-7) vs. 14) Utah St (22-9)
6) USC (20-10) vs. 11) Arkansas (21-10)

@Little Rock
2) Texas (25-5) vs. 15) Portland St (19-9)
7) Gonzaga (25-7) vs. 10) Miami (20-9)


SOUTH

@Birmingham
1) Tennessee (27-3) vs. 16) Morgan St (19-9)
8 )Davidson (25-6) vs. 9) West Virginia (21-9)

@Anaheim
4) Stanford (24-6) vs. 13) San Diego (20-13)
5) Clemson (21-8 ) vs. 12) Western Kentucky (24-6)

@Tampa
3) Louisville (24-7) vs. 14) Cornell (21-5)
6) Butler (28-3) vs. 11) Massachusetts (21-9)

@Omaha
2) Kansas (27-3) vs. 15) Belmont (24-8 )
7) Michigan St (24-7) vs. 10) UNLV (22-7)



Break it down!
Big East 7
Pac 10 6
Big 12 6
SEC 5
Big 10 4
ACC 4
WCC 3
MWC 3
Sun Belt 2
CAA 2
MVC 2
A-10 2

[pfunk880]

I think Ohio State is in.

[tornado]

I am forging a personal moratorium on "Bracketology", since all the speculation in the world
doesn't matter anyway, as most of the teams in the top 65 are a lock, only a few are on the bubble,
and the selection committee completely confounds everyone every year anyway.

[TheAsianSensation]

I am forging a personal moratorium on "Bracketology", since all the speculation in the world
doesn't matter anyway, as most of the teams in the top 65 are a lock, only a few are on the bubble,
and the selection committee completely confounds everyone every year anyway.

But then we wouldn't have as much fun arguing about stuff


Looking at these projections as far as NIT and CBI goes....there's about a 5% chance Bradley goes to the NIT, and it's about 50-50 for the CBI. That's a lot of options the CBI will have as far as what direction they'll take.

[thefish7]

Just an interesting tidbit... We have 21 NIT bids in our history, which is #2 all-time behind St. John's with 27, according to wikipedia anyway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIT_bids_by_school

[TheAsianSensation]

I hate you, Big Televen!

Minnesota and Illinois playing for a BTT finals appearance. You know what that means? Every bracketolgist's least favorite 2 words:

Contingency plans!

[Bravesfan]

I hate you, Big Televen!

Minnesota and Illinois playing for a BTT finals appearance. You know what that means? Every bracketolgist's least favorite 2 words:

Contingency plans!

Well, whoever advances tomorrow, I just don't see either team beating Wisconsin or Michigan St, though MSU has been looking pretty shaky lately.

[TheAsianSensation]

Locks:
MVC - The Drake (26-4)
Horizon - Butler (29-3)
CAA - George Mason (23-10)
WCC - San Diego (20-13)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (25-6)
Patriot - American (20-11)
MAAC - Siena (22-10)
S'ern - Davidson (25-6)
Summit - Oral Roberts (23-8 )
N'east - Mt St Mary's (18-14)
Ivy - Cornell (21-5)
Big Sky - Portland St (21-9)
BSouth - Winthrop (20-11)
OVC - Austin Peay (24-10)
Atl Sun - Belmont (24-8 )

Projected one bidders and their leaders
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St (14-15)
MEAC - Morgan St (21-9)
AEast - Maryland-Baltimore County (22-8 )
S'land - Texas-Arlington (16-11)
Big West - CS-Fullerton (22-8 )
WAC - New Mexico St (20-13)

The battle for the 1 line, in order:
North Carolina (30-2), UCLA (29-3), Tennessee (28-3), Memphis (32-1), Texas (26-5), Kansas (28-3), Duke (27-4), Georgetown (27-4)

Georgetown has to enter the conversation, at least for now. Tennessee has a trump card, and Texas' quality wins dwarf their bad losses. UCLA is the only lock for a 1 seed, this late in the going.

The battle for protected seeding (in no particular order):
Clemson (22-8 ), Xavier (27-6), BYU (27-6), Louisville (24-8 ), Connecticut (24-8 ), Stanford (26-6), Pittsburgh (24-9), Notre Dame (24-7), Wisconsin (27-4), Michigan St (25-7), Purdue (24-8 ), Indiana (25-7), Washington St (24-8 ), Drake, Butler

This is a mess. Purdue could go anywhere from 4 to 9 and I wouldn't be surprised. Enter Pitt into the conversation. Enter BYU into the conversation.

Other locks:
Vanderbilt (26-7), Mississippi St (21-10), Oklahoma (22-10), Marquette (23-9), West Virginia (23-10), Gonzaga (25-7), USC (21-11)

You cannot reward Vandy with a protected seed. No way.

16 spots left. These teams are near locks, barring some boggling selection committee logic:
Kent St (27-6) - bidstealer alert focused on Akron now
UNLV (24-7) - a clear #2 team in a multibid league
Arkansas (21-10) - got the win it needed to secure itself
Kentucky (18-11) - strong finish, and I think extenuating circumstances actually help give them benefit of the doubt in case
Kansas St (19-11) - that RPI is getting into fledgling territory...

Above the "last 8 in" line:
Miami (21-10) - 8-9 in the ACC, but too much else is working in their favor for them to miss
St Mary's (24-6) - too many wins, too good a resume to deny
South Alabama (24-6) - I don't care what the talking heads say. they're in
Davidson* (listed here for seeding purposes)
Western Kentucky* (listed here for seeding purposes)

Next 4 in:
Texas A&M (23-9) - should be good to go. when everyone else was busy losing this week, they beat KSU
St Joseph's (21-11) - you beat Xavier twice in a week, you deserve to go, period
Illinois St (23-9) - they're going to make it, god ******
VCU (24-7) - I'm a mid-major homer

Last 4 in:
Baylor (20-10) - I'm trying hard to ignore that loss
Virginia Tech (19-12) - again - while everyone else crapped the bed, they beat Miami
Arizona (18-14)
Oregon (18-13) - Pac 10 roulette! Difference with them and other bubble teams? Their losses came to better teams - other schools lost to 12 seeds and the like

Last 4 out:
Massachusetts (21-10) - Flameout!
Ohio St (19-13) - At least those 2 home wins keep them alive. they acted like they wanted in
Temple (20-12) - The A-10, somewhere, riots
Villanova (20-12) - There's enough here to backdoor their way in

Next 4 out:
Arizona St (19-12) - 82 RPI! Good God. ASU had a non-con SoS strategy - schedule Maui, and load up on cupcakes and lean on Maui. Well, Illinois, LSU, and Princeton @ Maui. LOL ASU

---You can cut the list off here. No one else has a realistic shot. But....for completeness...---

Mississippi (21-10)
New Mexico (24-8 )
Maryland (18-14)

Other teams on the Big Board. They won't make it, but you'll see them creeping up on some "last 8 out" boards:
Creighton (20-10) - sure, why not?
Southern Illinois (17-14) - sure, why not?
Florida St (19-14)
Florida (21-11)
Dayton (21-10) - if they got their player back, this would be a completely different story
UAB (22-10)
Syracuse (19-13)
Stephen F Austin (22-5) - their RPI imploded to 72 with that single loss, so that's the end of that
Charlotte (20-13)

NIT autobids:
Robert Morris (26-7), UNC-Asheville (19-9), UC-Santa Barbara (22-8 ), Utah St (23-10), Alabama St (17-10)


10 NIT spots left. The 10 I say go (0-2 bids may disappear today, depending what happens elsewhere)

Wake Forest (17-13), California (16-15), Rhode Island (21-11), Houston (22-9), Akron (23-9), Cleveland St (19-12), Seton Hall (17-15), Texas Tech (15-15), Oklahoma St (16-15), Minnesota (20-12)

My call for your 16 CBI bids, based on deservedness:
Nevada (20-11), Boise St (23-8 ), IUPUI (23-7), Georgia Tech (15-17), San Diego St (19-12), Wright St (21-10), Valparaiso (19-13), Nebraska (19-12), Bradley (17-15), Alabama (17-16), Washington (16-16), Richmond (16-14), Ohio (19-12), Tulsa (20-12), NC-Wilmington (20-13), Western Michigan (20-12)

As you can see, some quality teams are going to spill in here. That's why the CBI was created.

An extensive list to CBI candidates. To save a few of you the time and effort.:
North Carolina St (15-16), Virginia (15-15), Boston College (14-17), Cincinnati (13-18 ), Providence (15-16), Utah (16-14), Air Force (14-14), Illinois-Chicago (17-15), Rider (23-10), Niagara (19-10), Marist (18-14), LoyolaMD (19-14), Missouri (16-16), Illinois (15-18 ), Penn St (15-16), Indiana St (14-16), Northern Iowa (17-14), Missouri St (16-16), MiamiOH (17-15), UTEP (19-13), Southern MIss (15-14), Old Dominion (17-15), Middle Tennessee St (16-15), Duquense (17-13), St Louis (15-15), LaSalle (14-17), Georgia Southern (18-12), UNC-Greensboro (19-12), Wagner (23-8 ), CS-Northridge (19-10), Pacific (20-10), Brown (19-9)