TAS Bracketology

[TheAsianSensation]

By popular demand!


SOUTH

@Little Rock
1) Memphis (20-0) vs. 16) Alabama St (7-7) / Norfolk St (9-9)
8 ) Mississippi St (14-6) vs. 9) St Joseph's (13-5)

@Anaheim
4) Arizona (14-6) vs. 13) VCU (15-5)
5) Marquette (14-4) vs. 12) Virginia Tech (13-8 )

@Omaha
3) Kansas St (14-4) vs. 14) CS-Northridge (14-4)
6) Mississippi (16-3) vs. 11) USC (13-7)

@D.C.
2) Michigan St (19-2) vs. 15) NC-Asheville (13-4)
7) Clemson (14-5) vs. 10) BYU (16-5)


WEST

@Omaha
1) Kansas (19-1) vs. 16) Weber St (10-8 )
8 ) Ohio St (15-6) vs. 9) Dayton (15-4)

@Tampa
4) Pittsburgh (16-4) vs. 13) Sam Houston St (12-3)
5) Washington St (17-3) vs. 12) Seton Hall (15-6)

@Little Rock
3) Drake (17-1) vs. 14) Oral Roberts (13-5)
6) Florida (18-3) vs. 11) Purdue (16-5)

@Raleigh
2) Duke (18-1) vs. 15) Austin Peay (14-9)
7) Baylor (15-3) vs. 10) Louisville (15-6)



EAST

@Raleigh
1) North Carolina (20-1) vs. 16) Jacksonville (10-9)
8 ) Syracuse (15-7) vs. 9) Oklahoma (15-5)

@Denver
4) Stanford (17-3) vs. 13) Utah St (14-6)
5) Gonzaga (16-5) vs. 12) Rhode Island (18-3)

@D.C.
3) Xavier (17-4) vs. 14) Cornell (9-5)
6) Indiana (17-3) vs. 11) Maryland (13-8 )

@Birmingham
2) Georgetown (17-2) vs. 15) Rider (16-6)
7) UNLV (15-4) vs. 10) Texas A&M (16-4)


MIDWEST

@Birmingham
1) Tennessee (17-2) vs. 16) Wagner (15-5)
8 ) St Mary's (16-3) vs. 9) Vanderbilt (17-4)

@Denver
4) Texas (15-4) vs. 13) Davidson (13-6)
5) Connecticut (15-5) vs. 12) South Alabama (15-4)

@Tampa
3) Wisconsin (17-3) vs. 14) Lafayette (14-7)
6) Butler (19-2) vs. 11) Kent St (17-4)

@Anaheim
2) UCLA (18-2) vs. 15) UMBC (13-7)
7) Notre Dame (15-4) vs. 10) Massachusetts (14-6)





Next 4 in:
Texas A&M
Purdue
BYU
USC
Kent St (in as auto)

Last 4 in:
Maryland
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
South Alabama (in as auto)
Virginia Tech

Last 4 out:
Arkansas (15-5)
George Mason (15-6)
Illinois St (14-6)
West Virginia (14-6)

Next 4 out:
Boston College (12-7)
VCU (15-5) (in as auto)
Charlotte (13-6)
Ohio (14-6)
Miami FL (14-5)



Break it down!
Big East 8
Big 12 6
ACC 5
A-10 5
Pac 10 5
Big 10 5
SEC 5
MWC 2
WCC 2

[Da Coach]

Nice to see Drake in there, but a 3 seed? That will not happen in Billy Packer's, or Digger Phelps' lifetime!
Only 1 MVC team? I predict 2.

And I didn't see Bradley there, did I miss them?

[TheAsianSensation]

Nice to see Drake in there, but a 3 seed? That will not happen in Billy Packer's, or Digger Phelps' lifetime!
Only 1 MVC team? I predict 2.

And I didn't see Bradley there, did I miss them?

Drake - The 3-4-5 seeds are unusually weak this year. That, and the fact Drake is undefeated in the #8 conference, and we've seen the committee reward conference titles......and the RPI....benefit of the doubt for now.

The MVC will get 2. We just can't tell you which team deserves it right now, so 1 for now.

We'll talk when Bradley wins about another 8 games in a row or so about their at-large chances

[MacabreMob]

Thanks TAS.

I got a feeling The Drake is about to lose a couple games in February... gonna drop them outta the 3-4-5 range IMO.

I understand bracketology is done as if TODAY were Selection Sunday.

Agree the field has a lot of weak 3-5 seeds... this tourney is gonna have some upsets.

Heck - someone like UIUC could win the B10 Trny, get a 12 seed and roll to the Sweet 16.

[TheAsianSensation]

SOUTH

@Little Rock
1) Memphis (22-0) vs. 16) Morgan St (13-7)/Alabama St (9-7)
8 ) St Mary's (18-3) vs. 9) Mississippi (16-4)

@Washington DC
4) Notre Dame (17-4) vs. 13) Davidson (15-6)
5) Butler (20-2) vs. 12) Maryland (15-

@Anaheim
3) Stanford (19-3) vs. 14) CS-Northridge (14-6)
6) Texas A&M (18-4) vs. 11) Syracuse (16-

@Omaha
2) Wisconsin (19-3) vs. 15) Belmont (15-
7) Vanderbilt (19-4) vs. 10) North Carolina St (15-7)


WEST

@Raleigh
1) North Carolina (21-2) vs. 16) UMBC (15-7)
8 ) Mississippi St (15-7) vs. 9) Rhode Island (19-4)

@Denver
4) Drake (19-1) vs. 13) Utah St (16-6)
5) Pittsburgh (17-5) vs. 12) Oral Roberts (15-5)

@Washington DC
3) Xavier (19-4) vs. 14) Stephen F. Austin (14-3)
6) Louisville (17-6) vs. 11) Ohio St (16-7)

@Omaha
2) Kansas (21-1) vs. 15) Austin Peay (16-9)
7) Washington St (17-5) vs. 10) South Alabama (17-4)






MIDWEST

@Birmingham
1) Tennessee (19-2) vs. 16) Lafayette (14-
8 ) Baylor (16-4) vs. 9) Purdue (18-5)

@Tampa
4) Connecticut (17-5) vs. 13) VCU (17-5)
5) Clemson (16-5) vs. 12) St Joseph's (15-6)

@Birmingham
3) Texas (17-4) vs. 14) NC-Asheville (14-4)
6) Indiana (19-3) vs. 11) Kent St (18-5)

@Anaheim
2) UCLA (20-2) vs. 15) Portland St (12-
7) Marquette (15-5) vs. 10) Florida (18-5)


EAST

@Raleigh
1) Duke (20-1) vs. 16) Sacred Heart (14-10)
8 ) Dayton (16-5) vs. 9) BYU (18-5)

@Denver
4) Arizona (14-7) vs. 13) West Virginia (15-7)
5) Kansas St (15-5) vs. 12) Arkansas (16-5)

@Little Rock
3) Michigan St (19-3) vs. 14) Cornell (11-5)
6) Gonzaga (17-6) vs. 11) Massachusetts (15-7)

@Tampa
2) Georgetown (19-2) vs. 15) Rider (17-6)
7) USC (15-7) vs. 10) UNLV (16-5)



Notables just ahead of next 4 in:
South Alabama (in as auto this week)
Purdue
UNLV
Dayton

Next 4 in:
Syracuse
Massachusetts
Ohio St
Kent St (in as auto this week)

Last 4 in:
Arkansas
Maryland
St Joseph's
West Virginia


Last 4 out:
Oklahoma (15-7)
Western Kentucky (17-5)
George Mason (17-6)
Seton Hall (15-

Next 4 out:
Illinois St (15-7)
Ohio (15-7)
Creighton (15-6)
Virginia Tech (14-9)

Others seriously considered:
Akron (16-6)
Kentucky (11-9)
Wright St (16-6)
Texas Tech (11-9)
San Diego St (15-6)
Houston (17-4)
Miami (14-7)
California (14-7)
Boston College (12-9)
Florida St (14-10)
Oregon (13-9)



The sleepers:

Every year, one team comes from way behind to make the field of 65. As in, afterthought now, and field later. Bradley was the team in 2006.

Here are this year's candidates:
Arizona St (14-7)
Washington (12-11)
Missouri (13-10)
Georgia Tech (11-10)
Wake Forest (13-
Minnesota (14-7)
Richmond (12-9)
Temple (11-10)
Charlotte (13-
Duquense (14-7)
South Carolina (11-10)
Southern Illinois (12-11)
Bradley (14-10)
Cleveland St (12-10)
Valparaiso (12-9)
UAB (15-7)
UTEP (14-7)
Providence (13-9)
Villanova (13-
New Mexico (17-6)
Utah (12-
Boise St (16-5)

It's a comprehensive list.


Break it down!
Big East - 8
SEC - 6
Big 12 - 5
Atlantic 10 - 5
ACC - 5
Big Televen - 5
Pac 10 - 5
MWC - 2
WCC - 2

[MacabreMob]

Thanks TAS.

Question:

I see Kentucky on your list on the outside looking in. How much work needs to be done to get the Wildcats in? They had some trouble early... and now playing better against better teams. And I know it also depends on teams around them playing themselves in and out. So honestly in your opinoin, how far out are they?

Thanks.

[TheAsianSensation]

Thanks TAS.

Question:

I see Kentucky on your list on the outside looking in. How much work needs to be done to get the Wildcats in? They had some trouble early... and now playing better against better teams. And I know it also depends on teams around them playing themselves in and out. So honestly in your opinoin, how far out are they?

Thanks.

Not as far out as casual fans may think.

Non-con be darned, project their 6-2 to a 12-4 conference record. 12-4 in a "BCS" conference will probably get you there.

There is probably too much damage in the non-con to think 10-6 will be good enough. And as always, it'll matter who the wins come against.

Hypothetical:

@Vandy - L
@LSU - W
Georgia - W
Arkansas - L
Ole Miss - W
@Tennessee - L
@South Carolina - W
Florida - W

That'd be 17-12 (11-5), and would probably leave them needing 2-1 in the SEC tourney.

[MacabreMob]

Thanks AS. Keep me posted on them, please, as things progress.

[TheAsianSensation]

This was done pre-Saturday, but didn't have the time to post it everywhere:



SOUTH

@Little Rock
1) Memphis (24-0) vs. 16) Alabama St (10-8 )/Morgan St (14-8 )
8 ) BYU (19-5) vs. 9) Rhode Island (20-5)

@Tampa
4) Michigan St (20-4) vs 13) VCU (19-5)
5) Washington St (19-5) vs. 12) Syracuse (16-9)

@DC
3) Connecticut (19-5) vs. 14) Cornell (13-5)
6) Vanderbilt (21-4) vs. 11) Arizona St (16-7)

@Little Rock
2) Texas (19-4) vs. 15) Belmont (17-8 )
7) Clemson (17-6) vs. 10) St Joseph's (16-7)


WEST

@Raleigh
1) North Carolina (23-2) vs. 16) Wagner (18-6)
8 ) Indiana (20-4) vs. 9) UNLV (18-5)

@Denver
4) Drake (20-2) vs. 13) Siena (16-8 )
5) Notre Dame (18-5) vs. 12) Kent St (20-5)

@Anaheim
3) Stanford (20-4) vs. 14) Utah St (17-7)
6) Marquette (16-6) vs. 11) South Alabama (18-5)

@Omaha
2) Kansas (22-2) vs. 16) American (15-10)
7) Gonzaga (19-6) vs. 10) Florida (19-6)


MIDWEST

@Birmingham
1) Tennessee (21-2) vs. 16) Portland St (14-8 )
8 ) USC (15-8 ) vs. 9) Arkansas (17-6)

@Omaha
4) Butler (23-2) vs. 13) Davidson (17-6)
5) Kansas St (16-6) vs. 12) West Virginia (16-7)

@DC
3) Xavier (21-4) vs. 14) Stephen F Austin (16-3)
6) Arizona (15-8 ) vs. 11) Oklahoma (16-8 )

@Birmingham
2) Georgetown (20-3) vs. 15) Austin Peay (17-9)
7) Purdue (20-5) vs. 10) Baylor (16-6)


EAST

@Raleigh
1) Duke (22-1) vs. 16) Maryland-Baltimore County (16-7)
8 ) Mississippi St (16-7) vs. 9) Ohio St (17-8 )

@Denver
4) Louisville (19-6) vs. 13) Western Kentucky (18-5)
5) Texas A&M (19-4) vs. 12) Illinois St (17-7)

@Tampa
3) Wisconsin (20-4) vs. 14) UNC-Asheville (14-6)
6) St Mary's (20-3) vs. 11) Oral Roberts (17-5)

@Anaheim
2) UCLA (20-3) vs. 15) CS-Northridge (15-6)
7) Pittsburgh (18-5) vs. 10) Maryland (16-9)


Next 4 in:
Maryland
Florida
Arizona St
West Virginia

Last 4 in:
Syracuse
Oklahoma
Oral Roberts (in as autobid in projection)
South Alabama
Illinois St

Last 4 out:
Oregon
Mississippi
Houston
Dayton

Next 4 out:
North Carolina St
Massachusetts
George Mason
Wake Forest

Also considered:
Miami (15-7)
Virginia Tech (14-10)
Boston College (13-10)
Seton Hall (15-10)
Villanova (14-9)
UAB (17-7)
Creighton (16-7)
New Mexico (19-6)
Temple (13-10)
Wright St (18-6)
Ohio (16-




Break it down!
Big East 8
Pac-10 6
Big 12 6
Big 10 5
SEC 5
ACC 4
A-10 3
MVC 2
WCC 2
MWC 2
Sun Belt 2





Going to the NIT:
Cincinnati (12-12)
Southern Illinois (13-12)
California (14-9)
Kentucky (12-10)
Texas Tech (12-10)
Minnesota (14-
Duquense (16-7)
San Diego St (15-
Cleveland St (15-10)
Akron (17-7)
Nevada (15-9)
Florida St (14-11)
Charlotte (14-9)


Into the abyss of the CBI:
Bradley (14-12)
Missouri (14-11)
Nebraska (14-
UTEP (14-
Alabama (14-11)
Utah (13-
Boise St (17-6)
Sam Houston St (17-5)
San Diego (13-11)
Northern Iowa (14-10)
Miami OH (12-11)
St Louis (13-10)
Richmond (12-10)
Western Michigan (14-10)
IUPUI (17-5)
Georgia Southern (16-

[SFP]

I'm not sure why the Big 10 should get 5 teams in! The ACC only has 4 and they wupped the Big 10 again head to head.
Right not the MVC is only deserving 1 slam dunk in Drake the other team is going to have to earn it in St. Louis.

[TheAsianSensation]

SOUTH

@Little Rock
1) Memphis vs. 16) Alabama St (11-8 )/Norfolk St (14-10)
8 ) USC (16-9) vs. 9) Arkansas (18-7)

@Denver
4) Purdue (21-6) vs. 13) VCU (20-6)
5) Marquette (18-6) vs. 12) Baylor (16-8 )

@D.C.
3) Xavier (23-4) vs. 14) Niagara (17-8 )
6) Drake (21-3) vs. 11) Ohio St (17-9)

@Little Rock
2) Texas (21-4) vs. 15) Maryland-Baltimore County (18-7)
7) Clemson (18-7) vs. 10) West Virginia (17-8 )


EAST

@Raleigh
1) Duke (22-3) vs. 16) American (17-10)
8 ) Texas A&M (19-6) vs. 9) UNLV (18-6)

@Anaheim
4) Stanford (21-4) vs. 13) Boise St (19-6)
5) Vanderbilt (22-4) vs. 12) Syracuse (17-10)

@Omaha
3) Wisconsin (22-4) vs. 14) Belmont (18-8 )
6) BYU (21-5) vs. 11) Arizona St (16-9)

@Birmingham
2) Georgetown (21-4) vs. 15) Austin Peay (18-10)
7) Gonzaga (21-6) vs. 10) Miami (17-7)


WEST

@Omaha
1) Kansas (23-2) vs. 16) Portland St (16-8 )
8 ) South Alabama (20-5) vs. 9) Arizona (15-10)

@Tampa
4) Butler (25-2) vs. 13) Oral Roberts (19-6)
5) Notre Dame (20-5) vs. 12) Florida (20-7)

@Tampa
3) Louisville (21-6) vs. 14) Winthrop (16-9)
6) Michigan St (21-5) vs. 11) Kent St (22-5)

@Anaheim
2) UCLA (22-3) vs. 15) CS-Northridge (17-6)
7) Mississippi St (17-8 ) vs. 10) Maryland (17-10)


MIDWEST

@Birmingham
1) Tennessee (23-2) vs. 15) Lamar (12-8 )
8 ) Pittsburgh (18-7) vs. 9) Oklahoma (18-8 )

@Denver
4) Indiana (22-4) vs. 13) Davidson (19-6)
5) Washington St (21-5) vs. 12) Western Kentucky (19-6)

@D.C.
3) Connecticut (21-5) vs. 14) Cornell (15-5)
6) St Mary's (22-3) vs. 11) Rhode Island (20-7)

@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (25-2) vs. 15) Wagner (20-6)
7) Kansas St (17-7) vs. 10) Massachusetts (17-9)


The danger zone above next 4 in:
West Virginia (17-8 )
Massachusetts (17-9)
Maryland (17-10)
UNLV (18-6)
Miami (17-7)
South Alabama (20-5) (in as autobid)
Arizona (15-10)

Next 4 in:
Syracuse (17-10)
Rhode Island (20-7)
Ohio St (17-9)
Kent St (22-5) (in as autobid)

Last 4 in:
Florida (20-7)
Arizona St (16-9)
Baylor (16-8 )
Western Kentucky (19-6)

Last 4 out:
St Joseph's (16-8 )
New Mexico (21-6)
Wake Forest (16-8 )
Houston (19-6)

Next 4 out:
Dayton (17-8 )
UAB (18-8 )
Wright St (20-6)
Stephen F. Austin (18-3)

Next 4 out:
Mississippi (18-7)
Illinois St (18-8 )
Ohio (17-9)
Oregon (15-11)


On the Big Board:
Virginia Tech (15-11)
North Carolina St (15-11)
California (15-9)
Texas Tech (13-11)
San Diego St (16-9)
Akron (19-7)
George Mason (19-8 )
Southern Illinois (15-12)
Temple (14-11)
Kentucky (14-10)
Villanova (16-9)
Cincinnati (13-12)
Seton Hall (15-11)

The NIT bubble:
Minnesota (16-9)
Duquense (16-9)
Creighton (17-8 )
Bradley (16-12)
Boston College (14-12)
Richmond (14-10)
Nevada (16-9)


The abyss (CBI):
Missouri (14-12)
Utah (14-9)
Florida St (15-12)
Washington (15-12)
St Louis (14-11)
UTEP (15-9)
Siena (16-10)
San Diego (14-12)
Cleveland St (16-11)
Sam Houston St (15-6)
IUPUI (18-6)
Utah St (17-9)
New Mexico St (14-12)
Nebraska (15-9)
Charlotte (14-11)
Georgia Tech (11-13)

[TheAsianSensation]

The beginning of (what I hope is) daily updates. Someone get in my grill if I miss a day.

This should also give a good idea of where SIU and ISU sit on the bubble. And this chart should allow a concrete foundation upon which we can debate.



One Bid Leagues, and their leaders
Patriot League - Navy (16-12)
MAAC - Niagara (18-8 )
Big West - CS-Northridge (17-7)
Northeast - Robert Morris (23-6)
Ivy - Cornell (17-5)
Big Sky - Portland St (16-9)
America East - Maryland-Baltimore County (19-7)
Big South - Winthrop (17-10)
MEAC - Morgan St (17-9)
Atlantic Sun - Belmont (19-8 )
OVC - Austin Peay (19-10)
SWAC - Alabama St (12-9)

One-Bid Leagues; except I'm deathly afraid that the committee is going to @@@@@ this up:
WAC - Boise St (19-7)
Summit - Oral Roberts (19-7)

All other leagues have at least 1 viable at-large candidate on the board.

The battle for the 1 line:
North Carolina (26-2), Duke (24-3), Texas (23-4), Kansas (24-3), UCLA (23-3), Georgetown (23-4), Tennessee (24-3), Xavier (24-4), Memphis (27-1)

Other stone cold locks:
Connecticut (22-6), Louisville (22-6), Notre Dame (21-5), Vanderbilt (24-4), Wisconsin (23-4), Indiana (24-4), Purdue (22-6), Michigan St (22-5), Drake (22-4), Stanford (22-4)

Should be good to go, but I can't in good faith call them 100% locks yet:
Butler (25-3), Washington St (21-6), Marquette (20-6), St Mary's (23-4), Gonzaga (22-6), Clemson (19-7)

Relatively safe for the time being, but it won't take much to be in trouble:
Kansas St (17-9), Arizona (16-10), USC (17-9), Mississippi St (18-8 ), BYU (21-6), South Alabama (21-5), Pittsburgh (19-8 )

Bubble, trending inwards:
West Virginia (19-8 ), Texas A&M (20-7), Kent St (23-5), UNLV (19-6), St Joseph's (17-8 ), Baylor (18-8 ), Arkansas (18-9), Miami (18-8 ), Maryland (17-11)

Next 4 in:
Oklahoma (18-10)
Western Kentucky (21-6)
Davidson (21-6) *currently in as autobid
Massachusetts (18-9)

Last 4 in:
Illinois St (20-8 )
Syracuse (17-11)
Florida (21-7)
Arizona St (17-9)

Last 4 out:
Ohio St (17-11)
Villanova (17-10)
Virginia Tech (17-11)
VCU (21-6) *currently in as autobid

Next 4 out:
Houston (21-6)
Kentucky (16-10)
Wake Forest (16-9)
Southern Illinois (17-12)

The serious consideration board:
New Mexico (22-6), San Diego St (17-9), UAB (20-8 ), Rhode Island (20-9), Stephen F Austin (19-3)

*SFA is a weird case because they do not lead their conference. Lamar does.

On the fringe, technically with a viable chance if they win a bunch:
Texas Tech (14-12), Florida St (17-12), Oregon (15-12), California (15-10), Seton Hall (17-11), Dayton (17-9), Temple (15-12), Creighton (19-9), Wright St (20-7), Ohio (18-9)



Break it down!:
Big East 8
ACC 5
Big 12 6
Pac 10 5
SEC 5
Big 10 5
A-10 3
MWC 2
MVC 2
WCC 2
Sun Belt 2


There are 8 NIT spots left after the above teams. Considering about 6 NIT autobids are used up in a typical year, these are your teams competing for the CBI.

North Carolina St (15-13), Oklahoma St (14-12), Nebraska (16-9), Missouri (15-13), Washington (15-13), Charlotte (15-12), Duquense (16-10), Mississippi (18-9), St Louis (14-12), Richmond (15-11), Bradley (17-13), Utah (14-11), UTEP (16-10), Cleveland St (17-11), Akron (19-8 ), MiamiOH (13-13), Western Michigan (17-10), George Mason (20-9), NC-Wilmington (18-11), San Diego (15-13), Siena (17-10), Sam Houston St (16-6), Utah St (18-9), Nevada (16-10), New Mexico St (15-12), CS-Fullerton (17-7), IUPUI (17-6), Cincinnati (13-14), Minnesota (17-10)

[MacabreMob]

Break it down!:
Big East 8
ACC 5
Big 12 6
Pac 10 5
SEC 5
Big 10 5
A-10 3
MWC 2
MVC 2
WCC 2
Sun Belt 2

Who are the 5.... I musta missed them.

[TheAsianSensation]

Who are the 5.... I musta missed them.

I can't do math.

I'll figure it out tomorrow - this format confuses me with the autobids mixed in with the at larges.

[MacabreMob]

I can't do math.

I'll figure it out tomorrow - this format confuses me with the autobids mixed in with the at larges.

I saw you had Purdue, Wisky, Indy, and Mich St as Stone Cold Locks.... and then OSU as Last 4 Out.

So I was wondering if you were reserving that spot for UIUC after they win the B10 Tourney.