MVC teams in the post season

[IlliBraves]

I am particularly bored tonight, so I thought I would spark a discussion. I don't know if this has been discussed before, because even though I try and check the boards frequently, I often miss things or don't read every thread. So, anyways, what teams do you guys think will go to the NCAA or NIT this year? This year is really baffling, because the MVC co-leaders haven't been atop the conference in quite awhile, and I'm not sure if they'll finish it out.

Right now, I'd say:

Drake-NCAA
Illinois State-I almost want to say NIT, because I could see the 'Birds falling in St. Louis at some point, but based on their play, I'll give them an NCAA bid.
Creighton-NIT. I could see the Jays knocking off ISU somewhere in St. Louis and possibly winning it all. You can't even keep them out of the discussion.

Right now, I don't see anybody that's playing well enough to make the post-season, although that could change. There's plenty of season left for us, and if we get our act together, who knows. I was at the ISU/BU game in Normal 2 years ago, which was the turning point on our season, which eventually ended up in a sweet sixteen appearance. So, you never know. We can do it, we just need to put the pieces together, and some of our veterans need to step it up and be leaders out on the floor.

[MacabreMob]

Right now - I see 2 MVC teams in the NCAA: ISU and Drake. If a 3rd team would win the Conf Trny, I think the MVC would get 3 in (based on ISU and Drake going 1-2 in conference and advancing to the 'final 4' of the MVC tourney and the 'wildcard' winning the trny).

After that - I'd say another 1 or maybe 2 in the NIT and the "other" new tourney (though I HIGHLY doubt the MVC will get a bid to that tourney.... just that teams deserting the NIT for the "other" tourney might get an extra NIT bid).

[cpacmel]

Right now, I don't see anybody that's playing well enough to make the post-season, although that could change.

Drake has won 13 games in a row. (including 4 on the road)

Illinois State has won 8 games in a row (including 4 on the road)

[ER3]

Drake has won 13 games in a row. (including 4 on the road)

Illinois State has won 8 games in a row (including 4 on the road)

I think he meant that he didn't see anyone else in the Valley that was playing well enough to make the postseason...He had already put ISU, Drake, and Creighton in the postseason above that remark...

[cpacmel]

I think he meant that he didn't see anyone else in the Valley that was playing well enough to make the postseason...He had already put ISU, Drake, and Creighton in the postseason above that remark...

Okay. My bad.

Thanks ER3. I was alittle confused.

[Da Coach]

If the season ended now, Drake and ISU would be in the NCAA field of 65.

However, both teams have a poor non-conference Strength of Schedule.
Drake's RPI is 18, but their non-conf SOS is 120
ISU's RPI is 36 but their non-conf SOS is 155

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2008&c=MVC

What that means is that if either of these teams have a couple "bad losses", their RPI will take a quick drop, maybe out of the range of being an At-Large candidate. And with more than 70% of the conference schedule left (plus a Bracket Buster game), and with half of the MVC sitting with RPI's over an 100 this year, there is awfully good chance of each of the top teams suffering some "bad losses" within the remaining conference schedule.

I see a good chance that both those teams will fall out of at-large consideration.

[New Guy]

I agree DC. ISU and Drake have to continue their great runs, a few loses and the media attention will go away. Not that I have seen much on either yet. Creighton has a good non-con schedule and record. They have a good chance to play their way into an at large. Everyone else wants out of Thursday and make a three day run.

This is one of my favorite sights this time of year. It is a daily updated chart of 20 different bracket predictions.

http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm

[tornado]

Right now, only three MVC teams have RPI's that would even remotely allow an at-large bid
(Drake18, ISU 37, Creighton 41). If one of those three wins the MVC tournament, then the NCAA selection committee might (and I emphasize MIGHT)
give out a 2nd bid to the MVC, but it would likely go only to a team with a 40 or better RPI who had a decent showing outside the conference.
Drake qualifies here, as they have decent non-conference wins over Iowa State, Duquesne, and played tough against St. Mary's on the road.
But neither ISU nor Creighton would seem to have the resume for an at large bid as all their non-conference wins are over pretty bad teams or teams well over RPI 100,
and although Creighton has no bad losses, ISU has non-conference losses to bad teams as well. There are NO PRIMO wins anywhere.

So unless something really surprising happens, I think the Valley could be a one bid league, or if anyone besides Drake wins the Valley and gets the automatic bid,
then maybe Drake or remotely Creighton could get an at large bid.
But I'd say even ISU's at large chances are in trouble if that's what they have to hope for.
If ISU loses the Valley Tourney, they have way, way less to show than Missouri State had the past two years.
They would have an RPI in the 30's but no quality wins outside the conference.
The BracketBuster might actually be a pretty big game for them this year.

[cpacmel]

But neither ISU nor Creighton would seem to have the resume for an at large bid as all their non-conference wins are over pretty bad teams or teams well over RPI 100,
and although Creighton has no bad losses, ISU has non-conference losses to bad teams as well.

Can you list those non-conference losses to those bad teams please?

ISU has 3 losses:

Indiana (14-1 RPI 33)

Kent State (13-3 RPI 39)

Eastern Michigan (5-9 RPI 256)

Losing to EMU was bad. But do you consider losing to Indiana or Kent State a bad loss?

Or did you mean ISU has a (single) bad non-conference loss?

[DannyCooksey]

Can you list those non-conference losses to those bad teams please?

ISU has 3 losses:

Indiana (14-1 RPI 33)

Kent State (13-3 RPI 39)

Eastern Michigan (5-9 RPI 256)

Losing to EMU was bad. But do you consider losing to Indiana or Kent State a bad loss?

I'll add that the 10 point win over Cincinnati is looking better as the Bearcats are 3-0 in the Big East with wins at (then) #27 Louisville and also against (then) #17 Villanova. The win over the Bearcats is picking up steam.

The only bad Redbird loss was at EMU and granted........that was a disgusting and horrible loss that could severely damage the Birds at-large chances should it come to that.