JPalm's 1st Bracket Projected

[MacabreMob]

3 MVC
Drake 7 seed (vs Sam Houston)
ISU 11 seed (vs Clemson)
Creighton 11 seed (vs Marq)

4 B10
Wisky 5 seed (vs Ore)
Ohio St 7 seed (vs Kent)
Mich St 2 seed (vs ORU)
Indy 4 seed (vs Cleve St)

#1 seeds: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, Wash St
#2 seeds: Tenn, UCLA, O'Miss, Michigan St

Conferences with more than one bid:

7: Pac 10 6: Big East 5: ACC, Big 12 4: A-10, Big 10, SEC 3: MVC, Mtn West 2: Horizon, WCC
Last four in: Baylor, Creighton, Illinois St, Virginia.
Close, but NIT (Not In Tournament): Connecticut, Duquesne, Notre Dame, Providence, Valparaiso.

[ER3]

Creighton getting in the tournament as an at-large? I don't see that happening unless they win 13 or 14 conference games. Where are their quality wins going to come from? The Valley has been successful in getting multiple bids over the past few years because there were multiple teams that went out in the non-con schedule and got quality wins over top 20 type BCS schools...Then all of the Valley wins that teams got against each other during conference play could be labeled as quality wins...
This year that isn't the case...nobody in the Valley beat anyone of significance during the non-con schedule...and as a result, there are no real opportunities to get what the selection committee would consider quality wins in conference play...Creighton could win 22 or 23 games, but if the two best 'quality wins' on their resume are home wins over Drake and SIU, is that really going to get them into the tournament as an at-large? I don't see it. The teams in BCS conferences are each going to have 10 or 12 opportunities to get quality wins in their conference schedule this year...so a 10th place Big East team that gets a couple wins against Pitt, Syracuse, Marquette, etc. is going to have an infinitely better at-large resume than the 3rd place Valley team that has Drake and SIU as its 'big wins'.

[Rusty 54]

Does anyone know how accurate these early projections end up being? IMHO it seems awfully early in the conference schedule to have any sort of idea.

[MacabreMob]

I agree ER3.

JPalm's also got his "Projected RPI" up. And I know it is early. But for conversation, only. Anyway, the projected rpi is like a heat-seaking missile... it will miss wide, then come back and miss to the other side but not as much, then swings back... getting closer and closer to actual final RPI. The projected RPI has Drake at 24 followed by ISU at 45 (Creighton at 47).

So from what you have explained and glancing at projected RPI's... the MVC looks to be a 1 bid league to me unless Drake wins the conference but loses the conf tourney (in this scenario).

I have been working on a file to show Conference signature wins against the BCS. And I know the MVC has none. But there aren't many out there. I'll try to have that up later in the week.

But the point is... just as you are saying. BCS teams that are gonna get their in-conference opportunities at other BCS schools are gonna get the nod over a Mid-Major that doesn't have a signature win and no other "sexy" wins against teams in their conference.