Hey Statheads...is there an "Extra Possession" stat?

[BU ICEMAN]

Alright, while I was grumbling (and reading others' grumblings) I sorta thought up a new(?) quickie stat that might shed a little light on BU's shortcomings: the failed possessions stat or possession efficiency stat or extra possessions stat, for lack of better names because I know there's a better one but I can't quite find it (Help!).

OK, I think it might exist in some manifestation 'cause it's sorta like a plus/minus stat, and if it does, lemme go on record that I'm not sure so I don't get accused of plagarizing or something like that.....anyways, it would consist of adding the team's Turnovers (a failed offensive possession) and the opponent's offensive rebounds (a failed defensive possession), then a comparison of the difference between the two would present an idea of how many "extra" possessions one team got. If your team's number is higher, you lose the extra possessions battle; if your number is lower than the opponent you win.

Now, while thinking of this, I thought that shot attempts and makes should factor in somehow, but the overlap with the O-rebs made me feel like a redundancy was happening.

Anyways, using the stats from the past few games, here's how BU stacked up:

BU / MSU
BU 16 TO's + 18 ORebs Allowed = 34 MSU 15 TO's + 11 ORebs Allowed = 26
MSU wins with 34-16= 8 extra possessions

BU / UNI
BU 9 TO's + 12 ORebs Allowed = 21 UNI 12 TO's + 7 ORebs Allowed = 19
UNI wins with 21-19=2 extra possessions

BU / VCU
BU 14 TO's + 11 ORebs Allowed = 25 VCU 7 TO's + 12 ORebs Allowed = 19
VCU wins with 25-19=6 extra possessions

BU / ButU
BU 16 TO's + 9 ORebs Allowed = 25 ButU 12 TO's + 10 ORebs Allowed = 22
ButU wins with 25-22=3 extra possessions

Using this stat, you have to go all the way back to the Loyola game to find a BU win

BU / Loy
BU 17 TO's + 9 ORebs Allowed = 26 LOY 21 TO's + 12 ORebs Allowed = 33
BU wins 33-26=7 extra possessions

I know this isn't a perfect stat, but I still think it says a lot about BU's difficulties.....feel free to improve on this with any ideas or tweaks, fellas.

 

[jasonpeoria911]

I know I counted at least 3-4 of MO States extra possessions tonight ended in 4 of there 17 threes. It was hard enough stopping them once tonight but they nailed it almost every time on the 2nd try.

Jason

 

[squirrel]

Pomeroy pretty much has it all covered in his efficiency statistics:

www.kenpom.com

They are a little heady (and after 3 years I still don't think I have a good handle on some aspects of it). . .

But basically it is a measure of points a team would score per 100 possessions.

Obviously a turnover costs a possession. Opportunistic teams such as Bradley in 2006 and 2007 scored remarkable efficiency numbers because they could capitalize.

On defense, its the amount of points given up per 100 possessions.

Here's Bradley's chart to date:

http://www.kenpom.com/expsked.php?&team=Bradley

As you can see, turnovers don't always result in more points for the other team, as Loyola and UMES were a couple of our worse games for turnovers, yet they had our 2 lowest DE performances.

Missouri State last night did make us pay, while we turned the ball over on 21% of our possessions, they made us pay by putting up an OE of 121.1, which tied their best mark on the year and was our second worst DE on the season (Vandy was our worst).

Considering all other statistical categories were equal (that was their second best effort protecting the basketball at 17% TO rate, only their second game under 20%), it is a complicated way of demonstrating turnovers were the difference in this game.

 

[houstontxbrave]

This is so glaring and it has been a glaring weakness for a long time. BU refuses to make rebounding a prioriety and this year, refuse to take care of the basketball. Since BU refuses to rebound with any consistancy and refuses to not turn the ball over nearly 17 times a game, this team apparently refuses to want to be any good.

This all falls on the shoulders of our coaching staff. Meaning find 5 players who are willing to rebound the basketball properly... box out and be aggresive and players who value the handling of the basketball.

Until this happens, which I doubt it will, we will be atbest a 6-10 seed in the MVC tourney.

I have never seen so many athletic physical bodies so soft and weak.