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We've had 12 games, and here we are at Christmas. I have probably thought longer and harder and deeper after last night's debacle than I have all season. I thought about last night's game, but also about the season as a whole up to this point. So, in honor of our 12 non-conference games and in the spirit of the 12 days of Christmas, I have 12 points on what's going on right now with our beloved Braves. Some are observations, some are questions, some are predictions. We have a week to discuss, analyze, digest, and recover until the league season starts, so I thought I would get it started. Feel free to agree, disagree, or tell me I am crazy...
1. At this point, I can't agree with the statement that this is the most talented group Jim has had. I just can't agree with the argument that this group is more talented than the Sweet 16 group, which had nearly the entire starting lineup from last year's 22 win team coming off the bench. Our supposed 'depth' is nowhere remotely close to that group at this point.
2. This team is kind of reminding me of the '05-'06 team, in the regard that they're underachieving, not guarding people, and the coach doesn't seem to know who to play and when to play 'em.
3. If expectations for this season weren't so high, would we really be this frustrated with a sophomore guard averaging 12 ppg? I'm as guilty as anyone for getting on AW for a lack of aggressiveness at times, but I think taking a step back, we have the makings of an all-conference player.
4. With 7 newcomers, I just don't think it was a good idea psyche-wise to schedule so difficult. I have said time and again how frustrated I was with the 4 Horizon League road games. But the more I think of it, I have a beef with the schedule as a whole for this group. A top 30 schedule doesn't do much for you if you don't beat any of the quality teams on the schedule. If we had a veteran group, with a large number of guys returning, then I say step it up and play the best. But this group needed a healthy mix of tough competition and confidence-building competition. That means 1-2 less road games, and perhaps a better distribution of our cupcakes and our resume-builders instead of all cupcakes, then a slew of top 25-caliber teams. We aren't experienced enough yet to handle that.
5. A second point on the schedule - The timing of the games wasn't the best. We were getting better game-by-game when we were playing every 3-5 days. After Michigan St, we started going a week or more between games. That's no way to build momentum or continuity, especially with an inexperienced group. On that note, scheduling such difficult games during finals (arguably the most difficult part of the season to balance academics and athletics) is not a good idea. I think the results speak for themselves.
6. We are NOT a deep team. I look at depth as being able to plug in several guys who you know will contribute. A truly 'deep' team would be able to overcome injuries to at least keep games close and competitive. Last year's seemingly shorthanded team won games without Dan Ruffin for 2 games, and without JC for 7 games. After seeing last night's game, I don't know who we could beat without everyone healthy. Right now, we can't really count on more than 6-7 guys every night. Egolf isn't ready to contribute yet, Cole-Scott is developing slowly, Collins is hit-or-miss and is mistake-prone, as is Singh. The only reserve that can really be counted for solid contributions every game is Maniscalco. That being said, I think it's time to shorten the bench, and play the guys you can trust. I am by no means giving up on any of the players mentioned above, but I think it's time to stop pretending we're a deep team. IMO, I think we need to go 8 deep, max. I think you'd find that the offensive flow and team defense would both improve.
7. Jim still doesn't know who to play yet. That's kind of concerning after 12 games. I think shortening up the bench may help in that regard.
8. Out of everything that has happened this non-conference season, the inconsistency and fundamental breakdowns regarding team defense is what concerns me the most. Defense is all effort and positioning, and BU is seriously deficient in consistent defensive efforts that put them in proper position. Watch the 2nd half of the Butler and VCU games for some perfect examples of this. We were beat repeatedly on fundamental backdoor cuts by Butler, and refused to slide over and take a charge as VCU did the layup drill last night. How many charges has this team taken this year? How many have our opponents taken? I don't know the exact numbers, but I assure you that our opponents are doing a MUCH better job of taking charges than we are. A lack of charges is a tell-tale sign of a team that plays poor team defense. When we don't defend, we don't win. We've rarely defended well through the first 12 games.
9. If there's any positive to Ruffin's injury, it's that it may allow DR to have fresher legs in February and March when our tournament lives are truly on the line.
10. I don't want to hear Jim 'call out' the fans anymore. The fans are traveling in droves to Chicago and Dayton and Indy. The fans are filling up Carver. The fans were ready last night to go nuts. Ruffin or no Ruffin, that 2nd half effort was garbage. Fans aren't going to keep coming out to see these 2nd half embarassments, and will sour if the coach keeps 'calling them out' publicly. The product on the floor will put people in the stands. The product has been pretty average in December (at least compared to what we were told to expect this season).
11. Last night pretty much sealed our fate as far as not getting an at-large without winning the regular season crown. We went 2-2 against a supposedly inferior league (Horizon), were embarrassed at home by a Colonial team, and have no noteworthy non-conference wins. A road win over Wright St will not be remotely close to being enough to warrant at-large consideration. It will take an MVC regular season crown to get in without winning the league. A win last night, and I think we start getting closer to being an at-large candidate even with a 2nd place finish.
12. From what I have seen, this team is more than good enough to win this league. I look at the schedule, and I find it hard not to count 12-13 more wins, even with our current problems. Injuries could obviously change that, but we should not lose any more home games, and I think there are at least 3-5 road games that should be wins. 2006 taught us not to write a team off, and I certainly am not writing these guys off.
Sorry about the long post, but I think it's time for some reflection as we head into the conference season. There's 20 games left, and a LOT can happen. Writing off the season would be absolutely foolish right now. But, thinking we don't have some things to resolve quickly would be equally foolish. Support the team, trust the coaches, and let's see what happens.
Fans, players, coaches - Merry Christmas everyone!
1. At this point, I can't agree with the statement that this is the most talented group Jim has had. I just can't agree with the argument that this group is more talented than the Sweet 16 group, which had nearly the entire starting lineup from last year's 22 win team coming off the bench. Our supposed 'depth' is nowhere remotely close to that group at this point.
2. This team is kind of reminding me of the '05-'06 team, in the regard that they're underachieving, not guarding people, and the coach doesn't seem to know who to play and when to play 'em.
3. If expectations for this season weren't so high, would we really be this frustrated with a sophomore guard averaging 12 ppg? I'm as guilty as anyone for getting on AW for a lack of aggressiveness at times, but I think taking a step back, we have the makings of an all-conference player.
4. With 7 newcomers, I just don't think it was a good idea psyche-wise to schedule so difficult. I have said time and again how frustrated I was with the 4 Horizon League road games. But the more I think of it, I have a beef with the schedule as a whole for this group. A top 30 schedule doesn't do much for you if you don't beat any of the quality teams on the schedule. If we had a veteran group, with a large number of guys returning, then I say step it up and play the best. But this group needed a healthy mix of tough competition and confidence-building competition. That means 1-2 less road games, and perhaps a better distribution of our cupcakes and our resume-builders instead of all cupcakes, then a slew of top 25-caliber teams. We aren't experienced enough yet to handle that.
5. A second point on the schedule - The timing of the games wasn't the best. We were getting better game-by-game when we were playing every 3-5 days. After Michigan St, we started going a week or more between games. That's no way to build momentum or continuity, especially with an inexperienced group. On that note, scheduling such difficult games during finals (arguably the most difficult part of the season to balance academics and athletics) is not a good idea. I think the results speak for themselves.
6. We are NOT a deep team. I look at depth as being able to plug in several guys who you know will contribute. A truly 'deep' team would be able to overcome injuries to at least keep games close and competitive. Last year's seemingly shorthanded team won games without Dan Ruffin for 2 games, and without JC for 7 games. After seeing last night's game, I don't know who we could beat without everyone healthy. Right now, we can't really count on more than 6-7 guys every night. Egolf isn't ready to contribute yet, Cole-Scott is developing slowly, Collins is hit-or-miss and is mistake-prone, as is Singh. The only reserve that can really be counted for solid contributions every game is Maniscalco. That being said, I think it's time to shorten the bench, and play the guys you can trust. I am by no means giving up on any of the players mentioned above, but I think it's time to stop pretending we're a deep team. IMO, I think we need to go 8 deep, max. I think you'd find that the offensive flow and team defense would both improve.
7. Jim still doesn't know who to play yet. That's kind of concerning after 12 games. I think shortening up the bench may help in that regard.
8. Out of everything that has happened this non-conference season, the inconsistency and fundamental breakdowns regarding team defense is what concerns me the most. Defense is all effort and positioning, and BU is seriously deficient in consistent defensive efforts that put them in proper position. Watch the 2nd half of the Butler and VCU games for some perfect examples of this. We were beat repeatedly on fundamental backdoor cuts by Butler, and refused to slide over and take a charge as VCU did the layup drill last night. How many charges has this team taken this year? How many have our opponents taken? I don't know the exact numbers, but I assure you that our opponents are doing a MUCH better job of taking charges than we are. A lack of charges is a tell-tale sign of a team that plays poor team defense. When we don't defend, we don't win. We've rarely defended well through the first 12 games.
9. If there's any positive to Ruffin's injury, it's that it may allow DR to have fresher legs in February and March when our tournament lives are truly on the line.
10. I don't want to hear Jim 'call out' the fans anymore. The fans are traveling in droves to Chicago and Dayton and Indy. The fans are filling up Carver. The fans were ready last night to go nuts. Ruffin or no Ruffin, that 2nd half effort was garbage. Fans aren't going to keep coming out to see these 2nd half embarassments, and will sour if the coach keeps 'calling them out' publicly. The product on the floor will put people in the stands. The product has been pretty average in December (at least compared to what we were told to expect this season).
11. Last night pretty much sealed our fate as far as not getting an at-large without winning the regular season crown. We went 2-2 against a supposedly inferior league (Horizon), were embarrassed at home by a Colonial team, and have no noteworthy non-conference wins. A road win over Wright St will not be remotely close to being enough to warrant at-large consideration. It will take an MVC regular season crown to get in without winning the league. A win last night, and I think we start getting closer to being an at-large candidate even with a 2nd place finish.
12. From what I have seen, this team is more than good enough to win this league. I look at the schedule, and I find it hard not to count 12-13 more wins, even with our current problems. Injuries could obviously change that, but we should not lose any more home games, and I think there are at least 3-5 road games that should be wins. 2006 taught us not to write a team off, and I certainly am not writing these guys off.
Sorry about the long post, but I think it's time for some reflection as we head into the conference season. There's 20 games left, and a LOT can happen. Writing off the season would be absolutely foolish right now. But, thinking we don't have some things to resolve quickly would be equally foolish. Support the team, trust the coaches, and let's see what happens.
Fans, players, coaches - Merry Christmas everyone!
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