MVC Getting No Love This Year

[Dallas Brave]

Despite a solid conference RPI, the MVC just isn't getting a whole lot of respect this year. Maybe the talking heads feel the the headline of the MVC being the best on the non-BCS cnferences has been worn out the last few years and they are looking for a new beauty queen.

In this article, Kyle Whelliston talks about the down year the WAC is having and uses their RPI as a major data point along with a losing non-conference record. So .. we're far enough along in the non-conference schedule that RPI is starting to be viewed as an indicator of conference strength.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=whelliston_kyle&id=3154126

In this article, Joe Lunardi talks about how the MVC will be hurt (in terms of NCAA bids) by the revival of the A10

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3154816&name=ncbexperts&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d3154816%26name%3dncbexperts

The MVC has:
(1) shown itself to be the consistently best non-BCS basketball conference over the last 3 years,
(2) has the best non-BCS conference RPI this year, but
(3) is getting low-balled by the national pundits

Maybe the A10 is stronger this year, but the MVC is more than a one bid conference as Lunardi projects

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[Dubl R 1]

What a joke. He's got Maryland and Nevada in though.

[BradleyBrave]

Despite a solid conference RPI, the MVC just isn't getting a whole lot of respect this year. Maybe the talking heads feel the the headline of the MVC being the best on the non-BCS cnferences has been worn out the last few years and they are looking for a new beauty queen.

In this article, Kyle Whelliston talks about the down year the WAC is having and uses their RPI as a major data point along with a losing non-conference record. So .. we're far enough along in the non-conference schedule that RPI is starting to be viewed as an indicator of conference strength.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=whelliston_kyle&id=3154126

In this article, Joe Lunardi talks about how the MVC will be hurt (in terms of NCAA bids) by the revival of the A10

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3154816&name=ncbexperts&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d3154816%26name%3dncbexperts

The MVC has:
(1) shown itself to be the consistently best non-BCS basketball conference over the last 3 years,
(2) has the best non-BCS conference RPI this year, but
(3) is getting low-balled by the national pundits

Maybe the A10 is stronger this year, but the MVC is more than a one bid conference as Lunardi projects
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Well, I think that can be taken a number of ways. IMO, we've established ourselves over the last decade as a multi-bid league. That speaks volumes alone. Also, we're not the 'new phenomena' anymore because over the past 2-3 years, we have established ourselves as a non-BCS power, i.e. we're not a story anymore. I don't necessarily think it lessens us as a league when it comes to Selection Sunday. We've got a decade of multiple bids behind us.

To your point of the RPI mattering again, that plays into the MVC's favor. Our RPI numbers speak for themselves.

As far as the A-10 goes, the only thing they have over the MVC are the 'sexy' wins. Dayton, Xavier, and UMass have more noteworthy wins than the MVC has. Head-to-head though, the MVC owns a 4-2 advantage. CRPI-wise, the MVC has a clear advantage in both overall RPI and non-conference SOS. With all of the garbage in the A-10, their top teams' RPI may be brought down as the season goes on. So, if the RPI ends up mattering again, you can give the advantage in that respect to the MVC. Barring an in-season Wichita-esque collapse, the A-10 will surely get 2-3 teams this year. But I don't think that automatically precludes the MVC from their bids.

The MVC is a multi-bid league. It has been for a decade and it will be again. Book it.

[Dallas Brave]

What a joke. He's got Maryland and Nevada in though.

Even though it is Joe's most recent bracket, it is a bit dated since it came out on Nov. 26. He will have an updated bracket on Dec. 17.

[squirrel]

On ESPNU's preseason podcast, he was very complimentary of the Valley, and was very clear in saying though this year may be down, it will be even better a few years in the future than it was in 2006.

Actually, Whelliston has retreated a bit and shares many of my preseason and in-season observations on A10, CUSA, and MWC:

http://www.midmajority.com/2007/12/the-boubacar-12122007-art-appr.php

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=whelliston_kyle&id=3133651

From yesterday's ESPN chat:

"Ray (mi): Big win for the Braves last night at Wright St. Any chance that Bradley gets an at large if they win their next two games(at Butler and VCU)

SportsNation Kyle Whelliston: (4:19 PM ET ) I agree, that was a great win in a building that swallows teams up -- Butler most recently, and Valpo was lucky to get out of there with their lives. I think Bradley's newfound size and depth will do them very well in those two games... I've thought of them for a while as the No. 2 team in that league, and with the surprisingly strong Valley RPI (see above), wins in both games would help them tremendously resume-wise. "

[ph]

In a world of increasing, high-profile college upsets (As the great teams are often highly talented young teams rather than highly talented experienced teams) The MVC is lacking the high-profile upsets needed to be a major talking point. SIU and BU blew their chances vs IU and MSU to make noise. Last year the selection comittee looked over more solid MVC teams like BU to give a shot at a weaker resume that included a high-profile win.

Without major upsets, the media is only going to talk about one team in the MVC. Right now, the team worth talking about in the MVC is Drake, and no-one wants to talk about the Drake.

[squirrel]

Well, I think that can be taken a number of ways. IMO, we've established ourselves over the last decade as a multi-bid league. That speaks volumes alone. Also, we're not the 'new phenomena' anymore because over the past 2-3 years, we have established ourselves as a non-BCS power, i.e. we're not a story anymore. I don't necessarily think it lessens us as a league when it comes to Selection Sunday. We've got a decade of multiple bids behind us.

To your point of the RPI mattering again, that plays into the MVC's favor. Our RPI numbers speak for themselves.

As far as the A-10 goes, the only thing they have over the MVC are the 'sexy' wins. Dayton, Xavier, and UMass have more noteworthy wins than the MVC has. Head-to-head though, the MVC owns a 4-2 advantage. CRPI-wise, the MVC has a clear advantage in both overall RPI and non-conference SOS. With all of the garbage in the A-10, their top teams' RPI may be brought down as the season goes on. So, if the RPI ends up mattering again, you can give the advantage in that respect to the MVC. Barring an in-season Wichita-esque collapse, the A-10 will surely get 2-3 teams this year. But I don't think that automatically precludes the MVC from their bids.

The MVC is a multi-bid league. It has been for a decade and it will be again. Book it.

The thing is, the A10 "garbage" this year is GW, St. Bonnie, and LaSalle. . .only 3 of 14 members, not its typical 7. Everybody else will be .500 or better, with Richmond slightly below, and they will have 9 RPI 100 teams, meaning those teams will all be able to boast 15-20 RPI 100 wins and 8 of those skeds will be top 40-50 SOS, continuing to feed off one another. . .

I still think the RPI math adds up for a lot of A10 teams.

[VromanFan]

In a world of increasing, high-profile college upsets (As the great teams are often highly talented young teams rather than highly talented experienced teams) The MVC is lacking the high-profile upsets needed to be a major talking point. SIU and BU blew their chances vs IU and MSU to make noise. Last year the selection comittee looked over more solid MVC teams like BU to give a shot at a weaker resume that included a high-profile win.

Without major upsets, the media is only going to talk about one team in the MVC. Right now, the team worth talking about in the MVC is Drake, and no-one wants to talk about the Drake.

I agree...although I wouldn't use the term "major upsets". Bradley beating MSU or Vandy would not have been, in my mind, a "major upset". They would have been very quality wins against teams that will be, very very likely, at large NCAA teams. MVC teams have not had very many wins against those caliber of teams this non-con.

Does anyone here think that BU's non-con performance is NCAA worthy? I don't think it is. That might change with a big win in Indy...

[squirrel]

I agree...although I wouldn't use the term "major upsets". Bradley beating MSU or Vandy would not have been, in my mind, a "major upset". They would have been very quality wins against teams that will be, very very likely, at large NCAA teams. MVC teams have not had very many wins against those caliber of teams this non-con.

Does anyone here think that BU's non-con performance is NCAA worthy? I don't think it is. That might change with a big win in Indy...

How dare anyone question the authoritative greatness of the MVC.

You're right Vroman Fan. . .the resumes don't add up, at least at this point. And given the sight test where our teams are choking in its "profile" games, it is hard to defend any single MVC team at this point.

Again, when the committee sees our biggest non-con win as St. Mary's, despite how many other good teams we've played/beaten, you can't count on them arguing for any of us.

[ph]

Does anyone here think that BU's non-con performance is NCAA worthy? I don't think it is. That might change with a big win in Indy...

Considering that the NCAA tournament is about determining the national champion, and you want teams that are likely to win at least one game, No.

Bradley has not shown the ability to beat a top 10 team, just the ability to beat any team worse than 50, and possibly hang with a top 25 team. (Much like last year's resume) You can say Bradley may be one of the 65 strongest overall teams, but there are probably weaker overall teams that already have an upset win under their belts, thus more likely to win an NCAA game. Currently you would be inviting Bradley in the NCAA to most certainly lose a game. In 05/06 BU seemed likely to upset a stronger resume team or 2, and did...

[squirrel]

The other thing that's being lost in this gushy MVC love fest is the lack of RPI 50 teams.

In each of the last 3 years, the MVC has had at least 4 RPI 50 teams, meaning those teams could bulk up of RPI 50 wins. In 2006 only a dozen or so teams had 7 or more RPI 50 wins as Bradley did.

This year, at best, we will likely only have 2 teams in that range. So we won't have those "key wins" in conference play as we have.

From 1998-2004 every one of those at-large berths came from the regular season champ failing to win the tournament, and in all but one of those years, did the regular season champion have a solid at-large resume. The one question would be SIU 2002, who was in the 50's, but and likely got in only because they won 2 of 3 vs. Creighton.

[BradleyBrave]

Does anyone here think that BU's non-con performance is NCAA worthy? I don't think it is. That might change with a big win in Indy...

That's why I was so bummed about the Michigan St loss. It was a game we had in hand, and one that would have pretty much punched our ticket (barring a conference season meltdown).

I guess the one positive is that our non-con in '05-'06 didn't have any noteworthy names on it (DePaul was bad that year), and included an 0-2 record against the Horizon League. Yes, we had the injury to fall back on, but we had that last year too and it didn't mean squat. I think our finish will determine where we go. If you take a look, there's a lot of TV games and some darn good opponents in our home stretch. That will hold more weight than our non-con IMO.

[BU ICEMAN]

As much as we'd all love to hope it's about the (RPI) numbers, you know it isn't......just ask Berruh and Missouri State!

It's been mentioned in a couple of posts before mine, we don't have that "sexy" win yet, and I'm really not too sure that Butler is "sexy" enough unless we absolutely trounce them on their own (lumpy?) floor. An MSU win on the other hand woulda been huge. It's about the perception, not the reality.

At the risk of sounding crass, Butler is the girl who's cute and attractive and you can be proud of taking home to mom, while MSU is the smokin' hot chick you want to do all sorts of crazy stuff with, like....well, um, you know, stuff that if I mentioned it would probably get me kicked off the board........Who are the fellas, i.e. the selection committee, going to be more impressed with?

Sure, Butler is a great win, but when it all comes down to it, it's a mid-major beating another mid-major, which just doesn't have the flash of a mid-major beating a BCS.

[chitown fanatic]

Win the conference reg season title and you're in, regardless of RPI or even first round exit in the SLU. Our reg season champ hasn't been denied for as far back as I can remember

[squirrel]

As mentioned though, Chitown, in every year between 1998-2004, our league champion has had an excellent resume (generally a top 40 RPI) and more than one BCS win.

The lone team that didn't meet that criteria was SIU in 2002.

If our league champ has an RPI of 48 and their biggest win is at home vs. a non-BCS, it's 50/50 at best they get in.