Kirk Wessler's take on next 3 games

[abesimpson]

http://www.pjstar.com/php/index.php?/wessler/basketball_braves_have_work_to_do/

KW describes the Braves current situation as almost must win (at least 2 of 3 of the final non-conference games) or we will basically have to dominate the MVC to make the NCAA tourney. At first I didn't think we were in that bad of a situation, but after looking at the last few seasons, I really agree with KW.

Last 2 seasons: 2005-06 we make the NCAA with a non-conf SOS of 130, best non-conf win against Western Kentucky (RPI 54), 2 losses against the bottom half of the MVC, and a 7-6 record against the top. Last season, we make the NIT with a non-Conf SOS of 15, best non-conf win against VCU (RPI 42), zero losses to the bottom of the MVC, and a 3-9 record against the top. Also, in 2005-06 there were 6 teams in the MVC in the top-50 RPI, last year there were 4, and currently this season there are only 2.

So picking up the extra top-50 RPI wins against MVC teams pushed us over the top in 2005-06, but the lack of top-50 teams (and thus wins against them) in the MVC last season got us in the NIT, despite the better non-conf wins, less bad losses, and tougher SOS.

[MacabreMob]

Bradley wins the MVC.... and this talk means nothing.

[mexicobufan]

I agree that BU needs to find a way to win two of the next three games. If we dont we had better hope that we win the MVC as I only see at best two teams getting in the NCAAs.

[Majik45]

I agree with everything Wessler wrote. To be on the inside of the bubble come March, we need to win our next 3 games. We'll be in the discussion if we go 2-1. If we're 1-2, then we better win the valley regular season or the tourney in St. Louis.

[mportsch]

I'd also have to agree that Bradley needs to win at least 2 of the next 3 to be in a comfortable position. Check out their RPI forecast:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Bradley.html
Granted, it is still early, so these numbers are by no means absolute, but it looks like a record of 20-10 will give an RPI around 53. A more comfortable mark would be 21-9, for an RPI of 42.
If Bradley only wins one of the next three (for a NC record of 7-5), they'll need a conference mark of 13-5 to even enter the at-large discussion. That's certainly possible, but it would be nice to have more breathing room. It would really help to get a couple quality nonconference wins as well, which the next three games would all be.

[Bravesfan]

http://www.pjstar.com/php/index.php?...ve_work_to_do/

KW describes the Braves current situation as almost must win (at least 2 of 3 of the final non-conference games) or we will basically have to dominate the MVC to make the NCAA tourney. At first I didn't think we were in that bad of a situation, but after looking at the last few seasons, I really agree with KW.

Last 2 seasons: 2005-06 we make the NCAA with a non-conf SOS of 130, best non-conf win against Western Kentucky (RPI 54), 2 losses against the bottom half of the MVC, and a 7-6 record against the top. Last season, we make the NIT with a non-Conf SOS of 15, best non-conf win against VCU (RPI 42), zero losses to the bottom of the MVC, and a 3-9 record against the top. Also, in 2005-06 there were 6 teams in the MVC in the top-50 RPI, last year there were 4, and currently this season there are only 2.

So picking up the extra top-50 RPI wins against MVC teams pushed us over the top in 2005-06, but the lack of top-50 teams (and thus wins against them) in the MVC last season got us in the NIT, despite the better non-conf wins, less bad losses, and tougher SOS.

Excellent column by Wessler. To summarize last season in terms of Wessler's observations, we need to take a look at a critical stat.

Last season Bradley did have a great non-conference win against VCU along with a stellar non-conference SOS of 15, far better than their Sweet 16 season of 2005-2006. Yet Bradley failed to earn that at-large bid last year due to their "Achilles Heel", that dreaded 3-9 record against the top of the Valley! And as I stated earlier in another thread, this is the same type of showing that did in Drexel and Missouri St last year. The previous season, Bradley and Missouri St had more opportunities for quality conference wins with six teams finishing in the RPI top 50. And Bradley took advantage of them while Missouri St again had a poor record against the Valley's best.

My point is that while a lot of flack was directed toward the selection committee last year against their supposed snubbing of mid-majors from the tournament, they did show consistency from previous years by giving less weight to the actual RPI's, and more weight toward top 50 wins, especially from within the conference.

So in short, if Bradley wants to make another appearance in the NCAA Tournament this year, they need to take care of business within the conference, particularly at home, irregardless of what happens during the remainder of the non-conference schedule. Winning 2 out of the next 3 games will help greatly, but finishing 10-8 and in fourth place won't get them in the tourney even if they do manage to beat Butler and Wright St. I'm sure everyone associated with the team knows this, especially in light of what's taken place down in Springfield, Missouri in recent years. Time for Bradley to get back to work, starting tonight!