Dave Reynolds' BU/MVC article 12/10

[Da Coach]

"So far, the Bulldogs are top dogs in the Missouri Valley"

http://pjstar.com/stories/121007/DAV_BF58MDUN.080.php

[Da Coach]

Here are updated MVC stats. Click on the category across the top to sort--

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/stats/bycategory?cat=Fielding&conference_id=21

Daniel Ruffin easily leads the MVC in assists with 7.0 apg. Drake's Josh Young leads in scoring with 17.8 ppg.

[BU ICEMAN]

"So far, the Bulldogs are top dogs in the Missouri Valley"

After reading that, I desperately looked for something to hold on to because that is a clear sign that the world is about to stop spinning......

[tornado]

BU's RPI is now in the upper half of the Valley, but really every Valley team needs to keep winning and get those RPI's UP!

RPI Rk Missouri Valley Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
26 Creighton 0-0 6-1 0.6310 84 0.5480
35 Missouri State 0-0 4-2 0.6162 43 0.5792
58 Drake 0-0 6-1 0.5959 177 0.5013
94 Southern Ill. 0-0 3-3 0.5561 39 0.5866
95 Bradley 0-0 6-3 0.5543 103 0.5340
96 Wichita St. 0-0 5-3 0.5543 74 0.5548
97 Illinois St. 0-0 5-3 0.5542 69 0.5604
126 Northern Iowa 0-0 6-2 0.5280 233 0.4633
183 Indiana St. 0-0 3-4 0.4835 175 0.5018
267 Evansville 0-0 3-4 0.4261 276 0.4369

Here are the conference RPI's

(Valley is back up to 6th)




Rank Conference Avg. RPI Avg. SOS SOS Rank Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 0.5984 0.5446 2 12
2 Big 12 0.5905 0.5541 1 12
3 Pacific-10 0.5859 0.5323 8 10
4 Big East 0.5787 0.5346 6 16
5 Big Ten 0.5571 0.5429 3 11
6 Missouri Valley 0.5500 0.5266 11 10
7 Atlantic 10 0.5497 0.5298 9 14
8 Southeastern 0.5497 0.4967 17 12
9 West Coast 0.5396 0.5350 5 8
10 Horizon League 0.5317 0.5288 10 10

[MacabreMob]

Drake is an example that an Unknown Quantity can be a good thing.

[MacabreMob]

Here's something for ya T....

Conference records against BCS teams:

ACC 21-12
A10 8-16
B12 18-13
BE 15-13
B10 12-20
CUSA 7-14
Horizon 6-6
MVC 8-9
MtnW 4-13
Pac10 12-12
SEC 8-16

[BradleyBrave]

Here's something for ya T....

Conference records against BCS teams:

ACC 21-12
A10 8-16
B12 18-13
BE 15-13
B10 12-20
CUSA 7-14
Horizon 6-6
MVC 8-9
MtnW 4-13
Pac10 12-12
SEC 8-16

Some people have expressed concern regarding the MVC being a '1 bid' league this year. Despite missing out on the opportunities for 'big' wins so far this year, if the last 10 years is any indication, I think we can count on 2-3 bids from the MVC. If you go back to the last time the MVC was a 1 bid league ('97-'98 Redbirds), you'll see that the MVC has produced multiple bids every year, with a league RPI as high as 14. The league produced 3 bids in years with a league RPI of 8, and 4 in '05-'06 with a league RPI of 6.

As of today, despite the league being 'down', the MVC stands with a league RPI of 6. With CU getting through the tough part of its non-con at 6-1, SIU having 4 solid resume-building games in front of them (3 at home), and BU having 3 solid resume-buiding games in front of them, there is a great chance that the league could move up even more. If not the league as a whole, then at least these 3 teams should be able to position themselves in solid at-large territory heading into league play. This isn't even mentioning Drake's great start and Missouri St's solid play and upcoming 'name' opportunities. Realistically, the MVC should have 5 teams in the top 50-60, and at least 7 in the top 100 come league play time. That's pretty good.

Now, league play and the BracketBuster can shoot the league in the foot as it did last year. If it's another blood bath where our #5 seed is 9-9 and our #6 seed is 8-10, and we lose big time in the BracketBuster, then we may be stuck at 2 bids. If teams 1-6 can have solid league records, and the league can perform in the BB, I think we're looking at 3 bids. Obviously other factors play a part, but in looking at leagues that usually take our bids, the Big 10 is bad, the Mountain West is bad, and the Colonial doesn't seem to be as strong as it has been in the past.

There's a long ways to go, but there's no need to be gloom-and-doom yet.

[Bravesfan]

Some people have expressed concern regarding the MVC being a '1 bid' league this year. Despite missing out on the opportunities for 'big' wins so far this year, if the last 10 years is any indication, I think we can count on 2-3 bids from the MVC. If you go back to the last time the MVC was a 1 bid league ('97-'98 Redbirds), you'll see that the MVC has produced multiple bids every year, with a league RPI as high as 14. The league produced 3 bids in years with a league RPI of 8, and 4 in '05-'06 with a league RPI of 6.

As of today, despite the league being 'down', the MVC stands with a league RPI of 6. With CU getting through the tough part of its non-con at 6-1, SIU having 4 solid resume-building games in front of them (3 at home), and BU having 3 solid resume-buiding games in front of them, there is a great chance that the league could move up even more. If not the league as a whole, then at least these 3 teams should be able to position themselves in solid at-large territory heading into league play. This isn't even mentioning Drake's great start and Missouri St's solid play and upcoming 'name' opportunities. Realistically, the MVC should have 5 teams in the top 50-60, and at least 7 in the top 100 come league play time. That's pretty good.

Now, league play and the BracketBuster can shoot the league in the foot as it did last year. If it's another blood bath where our #5 seed is 9-9 and our #6 seed is 8-10, and we lose big time in the BracketBuster, then we may be stuck at 2 bids. If teams 1-6 can have solid league records, and the league can perform in the BB, I think we're looking at 3 bids. Obviously other factors play a part, but in looking at leagues that usually take our bids, the Big 10 is bad, the Mountain West is bad, and the Colonial doesn't seem to be as strong as it has been in the past.

There's a long ways to go, but there's no need to be gloom-and-doom yet.

Outstanding post BradleyBrave! You have summarized everything I could possibly say about this season so far. With a few exceptions, I'm just tired of reading this "gloom and doom" that is being spewed by some posters on this board. The Valley is in decent shape, and despite the lack of "high-quality" wins, just the overall record of the Valley should be enough for us to earn two bids at the very least.

Again, for those of us who are still skeptical that the Valley will only earn multiple bids if we beat high end BCS team, I give you the example of the Colonial Conference last season. Drexel had all of the great wins while Old Dominion had a relatively easy non-conference schedule. Drexel finished fourth while beating none of their conference heavyweights, while ODU finished first while taking beating the top teams. Guess who earned the at-large bid. Here's a hint: It wasn't Drexel, despite all of their "glamour" wins. Insert Missouri St in place of Drexel, and the same thing took place in the Valley.

It's a simple analysis when one comes right down to it. The Valley is a strong enough conference in their own right, where if you beat the top teams in your conference, you most likely will earn the at-large bid. Now is not the time to hit the panic button. There's plenty of basketball to be played, and most likely if we continue to win about two-thirds of our non-conference games, we will earn multiple bids come tournament time.

[squirrel]

The RPI is a mess this year. We're #6 overall, but our top 6RPIs are:

25
33
58
94
95
96
97

And Evansville is playing a lot better now than they were early on. At any rate, it's a generally small range--a benefit of having just 10 teams--but if you're talking at-large resumes, only Creighton has one.

[OrangeandBlack74]

Obviously other factors play a part, but in looking at leagues that usually take our bids, the Big 10 is bad, the Mountain West is bad, and the Colonial doesn't seem to be as strong as it has been in the past.

There's a long ways to go, but there's no need to be gloom-and-doom yet.

Agreed BB.....good points all.

However, there is one "mid" you forgot to mention that will likely be a multi-bid league.....the A-10.

I can't recall how many bids they got last year, but I heard at least two different TV guys this past weekend say the A-10 could get as many as 4 bids this year.

[Guinness]

Cant wait to play Drake and show them where they belong

[BradleyBrave]

The RPI is a mess this year. We're #6 overall, but our top 6RPIs are:

25
33
58
94
95
96
97

And Evansville is playing a lot better now than they were early on. At any rate, it's a generally small range--a benefit of having just 10 teams--but if you're talking at-large resumes, only Creighton has one.

I'd say looking long term, and comparitively at the other potential at-large resumes from the MVC, CU's at-large resume is questionable. Their record and RPI is good, but their quality of opponents isn't that great. If DePaul and Nebraska falter, those wins will have about as much weight as Iowa and Iowa St have for BU, which isn't much right now. Drexel is bad, and CU got whooped by Xavier, who is arguably their only quality non-conference opponent. They finish their non-con with North Carolina Central (1-11, RPI 301), and Arkansas-Little Rock, both at home. 8-1 in the non-con is good, but they only played 2 true road games, and loaded up on some pretty bad teams. I'm not saying it wouldn't be strong enough with a good season, but all other things being equal with CU, BU, and SIU, I think BU and SIU would get the nod because their non-con's are stronger.

[BradleyBrave]

Agreed BB.....good points all.

However, there is one "mid" you forgot to mention that will likely be a multi-bid league.....the A-10.

I can't recall how many bids they got last year, but I heard at least two different TV guys this past weekend say the A-10 could get as many as 4 bids this year.

I agree, the A-10 might get 4 this year, but the MVC is 4-2 against them at this point. I think they get a lot of play and airtime because they're out east. The bottom 5-6 teams in their league are dreadful, and the middle 3-4 are average at best. ESPN and the other eastern-based outlets always seem to forget them. One of their supposed 4 bids is UMass, who UNI (who IMO is a bottom 5 team) handled earlier this year. Drake (who I still consider a mid-level team) handled another of their potential tourney teams rather easily. Conversely, a mid-level team in their league (Charlotte) handled our preseason favorite with ease last weekend. The BracketBuster may be instrumental in separating the MVC and A-10. However, I think that the Mountain West, WAC, WCC, and C-USA should worry more about the A-10 taking their bids than the MVC should.