Pomeroy Projections

[BradleyBrave]

As of today, 12/2, Pomeroy projects BU to go 14-16, and 7-11 in conference play.

http://www.kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2008&team=Bradley&t=p

His projections give us a 8% chance of beating Michigan St, and a 4% chance of beating Butler. Not too good. We'll see how this pans out. FWIW, they project SIU at 18-13 and 10-8 in MVC play.

[MacabreMob]

KenPom for President!

[ER3]

These Pomeroy projections are comical this early in the season.
He has projected Drake to go 23-4 and 15-3 in the Valley this year.
Ummm. Drake...2007 MVC Champs? That's rich.

[d dub]

swept by the redbirds too.

[MacabreMob]

I liked his Drake projection in particular. 24-3 overall, 15-2 in conference.

Playing ISU at home is considered a game against a Non-D1. (hence the 15-2 in-conference record)

[squirrel]

After 13 games, Pomeroy is accurate with a 92% success rate.

Between games 8-12, it ranges from 80-88%.

IMO, Pomeroy should be viewed significantly more favorably with the NCAA selection committee.

[Beninator]

These Pomeroy projections are comical this early in the season.
He has projected Drake to go 23-4 and 15-3 in the Valley this year.
Ummm. Drake...2007 MVC Champs? That's rich.

Oh come on now.... I guess those Drake wins against UC San Diego, Cornell, North Carolina Central,and Duquesne mean something
statistically!

[BradleyBrave]

After 13 games, Pomeroy is accurate with a 92% success rate.

Between games 8-12, it ranges from 80-88%.

IMO, Pomeroy should be viewed significantly more favorably with the NCAA selection committee.

So Drake is going to win the MVC?

[Beninator]

So Drake is going to win the MVC?

Well pomeroy has them sweeping SIU and "predicts" a 54-50 win for Drake at SIU with a 68% chance of them winning.

Good thing Pomeroy isnt in Vegas this time of the year!

[squirrel]

I wouldn't say that, but efficiency must count for something, as it truly seems to be the basis for success. I think it is a clear indicator that Drake could be the surprise team in the Valley.

Obviously, had they not played two non-DI's we would have a better picture of where they're at.

[Stryker]

It's WAY too early to know anything about predicting the final record accurately. Teams gell in conference season and get going while others collapse. As some of you pointed out, Drake has little chance of winning the conference, especially considering their level of competition so far. This Pomeroy must know something about some injuries happening later in the season or something...lol.

[BradleyBrave]

I wouldn't say that, but efficiency must count for something, as it truly seems to be the basis for success. I think it is a clear indicator that Drake could be the surprise team in the Valley.

Obviously, had they not played two non-DI's we would have a better picture of where they're at.

I don't know the exact formula for Pomeroy's 'efficiency', but I believe one major component of it is turnovers. With our propensity to turn the ball over, I am not surprised would would rate low in this area. Traditionally team that turn the ball over a lot aren't very good, so I can see how that kind of indicator would project a poor record. Hopefully BU corrects that problem, both for projection's sake and for our record's sake.

[Beninator]

It's WAY too early to know anything about predicting the final record accurately. Teams gell in conference season and get going while others collapse. As some of you pointed out, Drake has little chance of winning the conference, especially considering their level of competition so far. This Pomeroy must know something about some injuries happening later in the season or something...lol.

Guess this is the point where common sense comes in to overide
statistical formulas!

[squirrel]

I don't know the exact formula for Pomeroy's 'efficiency', but I believe one major component of it is turnovers. With our propensity to turn the ball over, I am not surprised would would rate low in this area. Traditionally team that turn the ball over a lot aren't very good, so I can see how that kind of indicator would project a poor record. Hopefully BU corrects that problem, both for projection's sake and for our record's sake.

Efficiency is simply this: points per 100 possessions
Pomeroy is simply a ranking of efficiency (offensive and defensive), after applying the Pythagorean theorem (which assumes everyone plays the same or typical schedule).

This stuff will all work itself out. Given BU's style of play, our success is directly predicated on sheer # of possessions. We can and should outscore the vast majority of teams we play, but if teams are successful in slowing us down, such as UIC did, and Butler, SIU, and UNI will try to, we won't be very good.

If we play the way we want, very few teams can play with us for a full 40 minutes. The 2nd half of Loyola (or UNI from 2 seasons ago) is a perfect example. Add constant improvement on defense throughout the year and we can be right where we have been the last couple years.

But our efficiency is dependent on our ability to play our game, and attention to details.

If you have one stinker in their (our UIC game) it will affect the Pomeroy projection until you get a more representative sample.

[Grassman]

After 13 games, Pomeroy is accurate with a 92% success rate.

Between games 8-12, it ranges from 80-88%.

IMO, Pomeroy should be viewed significantly more favorably with the NCAA selection committee.

I predict
His prediction on Bradleys record WILL BEl be part of his 8% WRONG