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The exhibitions and the first four games of the season should allow the coaches and players to figure some things out! I don't see this team really being tested until they play Iowa and Vanderbilt/Utah State away from Carver. I do think Bradley will beat Iowa to open the season 5-0, but Vandy/Utah State should be a great test. After that, two more games that Bradley should win before that four-game stretch against Michigan St., Wright St., Butler, and VCU. I really believe another 9-3 start is very possible! Then again, I also enjoy the taste of the red stuff!
???People say, ???Forget last year', but I want our guys to remember that one, because that will not happen again. We will be much better.??? Geno Ford, 9/22/12
I did some research on 'sports hernia' rehab, and standard recovery time is 6-8 weeks with normal surgery, but can be closer to 3-4 weeks with some newer techniques. I am assuming that since the procedure was done by the nation's leader in the field, and that it was done on an outpatient basis, that it was one of the less invasive, quicker healing kind. They say Ruff is a quick healer, but also that they want him at 100%. So, I am saying he comes back for the February 2 game at Evansville (5 whole weeks since surgery). So, here's how I see the chips falling -
@ MSU L WSU W
@ SIU L
@ UNI L DU W EU W ISU W
@ WSU L INSU W
Ruffin return (6-5 in his absence, counting VCU as a game he missed)
@ EU W MSU W
@ ISU L @ INSU W CU W
@ DU L Bracket W SIU W
@ CU L
Final record 18-13, 10-8 MVC (13-7 with Ruffin, 6-5 without). All we have to do is protect the home court until February. Playing UNI so early is really a killer, as I think it may be us, them, and MSU vying for the 6. Beating MSU at home on 2/6 is key too, as we may be jockeying with them as well. If we can somehow get the 4-5 game, I think we set ourselves up great to make a run to Sunday. At this point, it's what we have to hope for.
If we pull a miracle tonight, of course all bets are off.
I did some research on 'sports hernia' rehab, and standard recovery time is 6-8 weeks with normal surgery, but can be closer to 3-4 weeks with some newer techniques. I am assuming that since the procedure was done by the nation's leader in the field, and that it was done on an outpatient basis, that it was one of the less invasive, quicker healing kind. They say Ruff is a quick healer, but also that they want him at 100%. So, I am saying he comes back for the February 2 game at Evansville. So, here's how I see the chips falling -
@ MSU L WSU W
@ SIU L
@ UNI L DU W EU W ISU W
@ WSU L INSU W
Ruffin return
@ EU W MSU W
@ ISU L @ INSU W CU W
@ DU L Bracket W SIU W
@ CU L
Final record 18-13, 10-8 MVC. All we have to do is protect the home court until February. Playing UNI so early is really a killer, as I think it may be us, them, and MSU vying for the 6. Beating MSU at home on 2/6 is key too, as we may be jockeying with them as well. If we can somehow get the 4-5 game, I think we set ourselves up great to make a run to Sunday. At this point, it's what we have to hope for.
If we pull a miracle tonight, of course all bets are off.
Excellent work and research Bradley Brave. I, too, was looking at sports hernias recently. I hope they do keep Daniel Ruffin out of action until he is 100%.
I think 18-13 would be a solid number to achieve based on what Bradley has available to them. I think there are some solid young players on the roster. I just think many of them are inexperienced at the D-1 level. I am by no means dumping this season and giving up, however, I think the extended playing time Sam is getting this season will help Bradley in the long run.
I hope, and think, the Bradley coaching staff is going to spend some serious time getting some of the new players, like Sam, Will, DC, and others acclimated to not only D-1 ball, but more importantly Missouri Valley Conference basketball.
Tonight is a great test in my mind. Obviously every team and every season have one of those key fulcrum-type moments, where it could go one way or the other. I really am looking to see what adjustments have been made.
I'm gonna go with 15-17, using Pomeroy's projection but flipflop the home losses to SIU and CU with his projected road wins at Indiana State and Evansville, and one game in St. Louis. And a BB winner.
One thing that's being overlooked as a positive for BU is that they've really cut down on the turnovers since DR's departure. While our shooting has been atrocious, we've only turned it over 13 times in the last 3 halves (3 2nd half against VCU, 10 total against UNI). We just need to shoot better and continue to defend at a high level. We have too good of shooters to shoot this bad forever. A perfect example is the 2nd half against UNI. We didn't even shoot that great (43%), but we won that half convincingly until we had to foul at the end. I am confident that the shots will start to fall, which is why I think we can weather this storm if we take care of the ball and defend.
Turnovers may be down a bit in pure #s, true, but our last 3 opponents have also been teams that generally play slower, meaning fewer opportunities to turn it over. The % of our possessions that end in turnovers remains alarmingly high, although UNI was a season best 17%. But out of 13 games, only 4 times have we turned it over less than 20% of the time.
Turnovers may be down a bit in pure #s, true, but our last 3 opponents have also been teams that generally play slower, meaning fewer opportunities to turn it over. The % of our possessions that end in turnovers remains alarmingly high, although UNI was a season best 17%. But out of 13 games, only 4 times have we turned it over less than 20% of the time.
I think the # of turnovers will continue to go down. We are playing at a little slower pace with DR out of the lineup, and we're also playing against competition that's significantly weaker than what we played in the non-con. IMO there are no MVC teams that are at the level of Vanderbilt, Michigan St, Butler, or VCU, and only 3-4 teams that are on the level of Wright St. With the weakened competition and what I see as improvement in valuing the basketball, the turnovers should continue to be less.
I'm sticking with my original 18-12 that I predicted before the season. We're right where I thought we'd be record-wise, but unfortunately we do not have the momentum or consistency that I expected.
I'm hopeful (yet somewhat doubtful) that we'll actually acheive 18 wins in the regular season and 22+ for the year.
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