Will other D1 teams drop down to D2/D3

[Bradley8792]

I wonder if St Francis is a fluke, or do we start to see more schools dropping out of D1. I can see it becoming more difficult for mid majors to keep up with the spending habits of schools with deep pockets. Do fan bases get tired of not having a chance at post season play, loose interest, and stop supporting the department financially? At the end of the day, schools are there to educate, not produce pro athletes.

[bradleyfan124]

I wonder if St Francis is a fluke, or do we start to see more schools dropping out of D1. I can see it becoming more difficult for mid majors to keep up with the spending habits of schools with deep pockets. Do fan bases get tired of not having a chance at post season play, loose interest, and stop supporting the department financially? At the end of the day, schools are there to educate, not produce pro athletes.

Dropping from D1 down to D3 is not new. Back in the 50's CCNY dropped down to D3. All the Colleges and Universities need to get together to make the NCAA do a better job for all the schools. Not just the bigger schools The tail is wagging the dog right now. The dog needs to wag the tail

[Stryker]

I am predicting there will be many others that drop down over the next 10 years. Factors include:

1) Implementation of AI education tools that replace teachers and make online degrees even easier to get. Will become more and more attractive, especially for young men. Colleges are already 60/40 female/male split and it will get worse as the value of college educations continue to fall.

2) AI automation of many white collar jobs. Banking, finance, communication, accounting, graphic design, most white collar jobs without physical requirements are going to be very very susceptible to being automated by AI over the next decade. If it comes to fruition, which most experts believe it will, demand for college degrees will plummet.

3) Likelihood of resurgence in manufacturing and trades continues to rise, especially if globalism continues to fracture apart away from the post-WW2 consensus. We see it with the current administrations use of tariffs, exposing of supply chain weaknesses throughout COVID, and resurgence of nationalist tendencies across the globe, etc. along with demographic collapses in Asia and Europe driving disruptions.

4) Further divide between men and women. Women voted heavily in favor of progressive, liberal candidates in 2024 while men, especially young men, were overwhelmingly in favor of right wing candidates. Signals further societal decline, young people are not getting married, not having kids, heck Gen Z isn't even having sex like previous generations. This will incentivize men to avoid college as there is no longer a point of signaling provider status to potential mates.

5) Continued move of people into a digital world, and even more entertainment options. College BB attendance continues to be low across the nation with only the best programs still having strong attention. We have the strongest attendance in the MVC and it is roughly 60% of what it was 15 years ago.

6) Likelihood of the student loan bubble popping. As soon as the federal government gets out of the student loan business many universities will collapse. Colleges are addicted to the government backed student loans artificially increasing demand for their services. If the government ever does away with this, it will be catastrophic to many colleges.

7) Immigration changes. Changes in immigration policy could have major impacts on colleges. Schools like U of I have very large foreign student enrollment, thousands of them. If the government realizes we are subsidizing the education of foreigners at our own citizens expense in both tax dollars and enrollment spots at universities and removes the ability for hundred of thousands of foreigners to get educated at our schools, it will cause a large disruption in revenue at most colleges.

8 )Changes in law regarding male and female sports, Title IX, etc. Title IX could potentially go away as public opinion changes and schools may not be able to afford scholarships and services for so many sports programs. This could have spiraling impacts on enrollment as students avoid schools that cannot provide as many services and amenities and the value proposition continues to fall.

There are many many factors that may contribute to falling financial performance at colleges across the nation. First to be impacted will be directional state schools and smaller private liberal arts colleges (Think Western Illinois, Eastern Illinois, Knox College, Eureka College, etc in our neck of the woods). Predictions are always very hard.

If I had to though, I would predict about 150 D1 schools in the country by the end of the next 10 years. I just don't think schools will be able to weather the headwinds the industry has at this time like they have over the past couple of decades.

[Da Coach]

There might have been other schools who dropped down from Division I, though the last one I can recall was Centenary College, a small private school in Shreveport, LA, that went from D1 down to D3 back in 2010.- https://ozarks.edu/news/centenary-ap...lassification/

A couple decades ago, Evansville considered a drop to Division III, but was able to avoid it - https://www.southcoasttoday.com/stor...g/50295285007/

[Kososaur]

Or do things go on a different direction - do the Big Ten and SEC lead a breakaway from the NCAA and form a new league?

[Bradley8792]

Or do things go on a different direction - do the Big Ten and SEC lead a breakaway from the NCAA and form a new league?

Ahh. Interesting idea. I guess either way, the divide becomes bigger.

[MacabreMob]

Dropping from D1 down to D3 is not new. Back in the 50's CCNY dropped down to D3. All the Colleges and Universities need to get together to make the NCAA do a better job for all the schools. Not just the bigger schools The tail is wagging the dog right now. The dog needs to wag the tail

I met a guy a little over 20 years ago who was wearing a CCNY sweatshirt. So I struck up the conversation and talked about the Championship games between CCNY and Bradley in 1950 along with the point shaving scandal and the teams involved. The guy proceeded to tell me that as the point shaving scandal exposed CCNY as being a part of it, he said the NCAA offered CCNY an option:

1) Due to the point shaving scandal, lose their titles and have the wins stripped from the record books....

or

2) Keep the titles and wins, but drop from D1 and never be allowed to return.

And he said with a proud smile, "we kept our titles".

[basketball nut]

Or do things go on a different direction - do the Big Ten and SEC lead a breakaway from the NCAA and form a new league?

I've been saying that for a while. People were yelling for Michigan to lose their national total in football. I said it won't happen because the B10 and SEC control sports and would threaten a pull out from the NCAA.
i still maintain that the B10 and SEC along with the B12and possibly one other conference will control all sports in 10 years and it will not be part of the NCAA.