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From January 9, the most recent. Check Hackman's Twitter feed for updates:
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...080832/photo/1
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...080832/photo/1
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My first BU hoops game was on 12/30/1963. My dad took me to watch the Braves defeat Arizona 67-59. He helped me get Coach Orsborn's autograph before the game. -
In Matt Hackman's latest seeding probabilities, Bradley has been downgraded to a #3 seed in the MVC Tournament. SIU is now #1, Indiana State #2, and Drake #4.
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...99871152807949
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I think we have 4 pretty clear bottom 4 teams in Evansville, UIC, Valpo and ISU Red. The other 8 teams will be in a dog fight to finish in the top 4 and avoid the play in games at Arch Madness. Winning the Valley could take a 15-5/14-6 record? 12-8/11-9 maybe for 4th? For BU to finish in the top 4 it would behoove them to start winning their road games. And that's assuming, and that's not a guarantee, that we take care of our business at home. It's getting good.Comment
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Latest seeding probabilities from Matt Hackman-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...55736953716771
Bradley moves back up to the #1 seed (highest probability). The Braves more favorable remaining schedule pushes them ahead of 1st place SIU and Belmont, and ahead of the other three 6-3 teams.
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If we beat Belmont on Saturday, then I'll feel better about that 1 seed projectionComment
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With the loss to Belmont, Bradley is now predicted to be a #3 seed in the MVC Tournament according to Matt Hackman's 1/23/2023 simulation-based probabilities-
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It's amazing what our loss to Belmont did to change the scenarios for BU. That's why each game is as important as any other. As it stands BU is projected to have at least a 70% chance to finish in the top 4. It was at 86%. The projections don't seem to like UNI as they are projected at 23% for a top 4 finish.Comment
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February 2 update:
Here is the breakdown of potential seed odds by conference record. The odds of a 12-win bye continue to shrink as the top 8 remain bunched (now down to 10%). A 13-win team could still be seeded anywhere between 1 and 7 at the Arch.
And here is an team-by-team breakdown of first round bye odds at each win level - you can see at the 13-win mark things start to get interesting. Also, note the total team bye odds at the bottom of the graph.
My first BU hoops game was on 12/30/1963. My dad took me to watch the Braves defeat Arizona 67-59. He helped me get Coach Orsborn's autograph before the game.Comment
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Very interesting numbers. So BU has to get 5 wins to guarantee a first round by, but has a 75% chance of being in 4th place if they win 4 more games. Makes sense. Most likely wins for BU to get still are @ ISU, Murray St, MoState, & @ Valpo, imo. If they can get those 4 they have a 75% chance of finishing 4th and getting a by. Hopefully BU can win at home vs Drake on senior day, as that would be against another 1st place team at this point. Getting that one would be awesome, but either UNI or SIU on the road would also work it seems.Thinking is the hardest work, that is why so few people do it. -Henry Ford
Yeah...I've been in college for a while now and I'm pretty sure that awesomest is not a word. -Andrew E.Comment
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Latest MVC Seeding probabilities from Matt Hackman-
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Updated seeding probabilities. https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1622658883931054081
I'm a little surprised we jumped from 2 to 1 in projections after all the top 4 teams won this weekend.
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Indiana State could be the wildcard in all of this. I think they will have only 2 tough games of their remaining 6 as they play at UNI and at Belmont. The game at Belmont could be huge as this is the only time they play so the winner of this game would own the tiebreaker. They split with both Drake and SIU and we own the tiebreaker on them.Comment
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Going to be really interesting as there are 5 teams with a high chance of finishing in the top 4 (ISUB hanging around). BU has the highest expected wins of any team in this analysis. But one of the 5 are going to be left out...I definitely see the tiebreakers making a big impact come the end of the month.Originally posted by bigjimmy View PostThinking is the hardest work, that is why so few people do it. -Henry Ford
Yeah...I've been in college for a while now and I'm pretty sure that awesomest is not a word. -Andrew E.Comment
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Remaining 6 games for the top 5 teams, with their record (MVC, home, road)-
Bradley (10-4, 12-1, 5-4)_____Drake (10-4, 11-1, 4-5)_______SIU (10-4, 11-1, 6-5)_______Belmont (10-4, 9-2, 6-5)____Indiana St. (9-5, 9-3, 5-5)
Each team has 3 home games and 3 road games remaining.
Assuming each team wins their remaining home games, it could come down to how well they do with their 3 remaining road games.
Bradley and SIU have only 1 road game against teams with a winning record. Indiana State has 2. Drake and Belmont have 3.
Overall, of their 6 remaining games, SIU and Indiana State have 3 games against teams with winning records, Bradley and Belmont have 4, Drake has 5.Comment
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One other way to measure the difficulty of the remaining schedule for the top 5 leaders is the average NET number for their remaining 6 opponents-
Team____Average NET
Drake____157.7
Bradley___177.3
Belmont__.190.7
SIU______198.2
INSU.........213.0
By NET, Drake has the toughest schedule remaining. Indiana State and SIU have the easiest. Bradley and Belmont are in the middle.
This does not take into account whether the games are home or away.
According to KenPom.com, Bradley, SIU, Drake, and Indiana State are predicted to win 5 of their last 6 games.
That would result in a 3-way tie for first place between Bradley, SIU, and Drake. If that happens, Bradley might have the advantage for the #1 seed for the MVC Tournament, based on their better NET rank.Comment
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