MVC tourney seeding probabilities

[OhRotanes]

Updated projected standings


https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...53713638625284

He also gives the winning probabilities for the final 3 games with those projected standings taken into account.


https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...54640261087233

[Stryker]

Looks like the projection is for both BU and Drake to finish 2-1 down the stretch, likely BU losing at SIU and winning at home vs Drake. This scenario would leave Drake and BU tied with 15 wins each. However, wouldn't this mean BU would be the 1 seed? With the two teams splitting games against each other and a tied conference record, I was thinking NET is the next tie breaker, and BU should have a higher NET in that situation, correct?

[Da Coach]

No, the NET is the final tiebreaker, but there is one other tiebreaker used if head-to-head doesn't break a tie. This explains it-

https://mvc-sports.com/documents/2023/1/31/Arch_Madness_Tournament_Tiebreaker_2023.pdf

[Mikovio]

Actually they just changed the tiebreaker to where, if the tied teams split against each other, next they look at records vs each place teams from top to bottom, and only use NET if that doesn’t break it.

In other words if BU and Drake finished tied for 1st, the next question is how did BU and DU do vs the 3rd place team(s). If SIU is alone in 3rd and BU swept the Salukis while DU split with them, BU gets the 1 seed. If they both split you keep going down the standings. Bottom line is we want Belmont to lose and drop as far as possible since they swept us.

[Da Coach]

Updated MVC Seeding probabilities from Matt Hackman-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...45374632747008

Bradley can finish no lower than 3rd place.

[Bigred1976]

So we’re out of playing on Thursday? Let’s go for the title now!

[Da Coach]

So we’re out of playing on Thursday? Let’s go for the title now!

Yes, they cannot finish lower than the #3 seed.
If they land the #1 seed, they will play the first game of the afternoon session Friday, March 3 (Session 3).
If they land the #2 or #3 seeds, they will play the night session on Friday, March 3 (Session 4)

Bracket-

https://mvc-sports.com/feature/23Arch

[64NIT]

BU back to #1 pending Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1627445733690339329/photo/1

[Da Coach]

Illinois State and Valparaiso are currently tied for 9th place at 5-13. And Illinois State is a huge favorite to beat Evansville and finish 1-1, while Valpo is a big underdog in both their remaining games. Yet it's essentially a tossup between the two of them for that 9th place. I'm not sure why his methods don't more strongly favor ISU to finish 9th, and Valpo 10th.

[Da Coach]

Update on MVC seeding probabilities after tonight Missouri State-Murray State game-

https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1628227801500229632

[OhRotanes]

Here's the updated odds for the weighted scenarios. https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...54885715091457

[Tommy]

Belmont looking like the odd man out for the first day bye.

[Stryker]

Here's the updated odds for the weighted scenarios. https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...54885715091457

I don't really get his weighting either in some of the games. The fact he has BU favored in a 60/40 split vs Drake at home is a bit interesting. I know we have our win streak in tact still, but Drake has a longer streak, blew out BU the first time they played, and has been blowing out every opponent for weeks, while BU has had to really work for some of the wins during this streak. I sure hope we can win sunday, but it wouldn't surprise me if Drake really brings it and takes the dub instead.

[64NIT]

https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...92085614960644

[BRAVE82]

So if Belmont, Indiana State, and SIU tie for third place... how are they seeded in St. Louis? I expect all three will win Sunday.