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Here is a pretty good website that ranks every D1 team using advanced metrics. His methods use a lot of stats from last year's teams, but corrects for players who have transferred-
His ranking of MVC teams-
1) Drake 59
2) Bradley 98
3) SIU 107
4) Indiana State `146
5) Valparaiso 170
6) Illinois State 183
7) Belmont 199
8 ) Missouri State 203
9) Murray State 206
10) Northern Iowa 214
11) Evansville 322
12) UIC 344
Another independent blogger who rates every Division I team-
https://lbenz730.shinyapps.io/recspe...tball_central/
Here is how he ranks the teams that he identifies as MVC teams-
1) Murray State 33
2) Missouri State 55
3) Belmont 92
4) UNI 100
5) Drake 115
6) Bradley 121
7) SIU 124
8 ) Illinois State 166
9) Valparaiso 185
10) Indiana State 252
11) Marshall 261
12) UIC 265
13) Evansville 310
Here is his methodology- https://lukebenz.com/post/hoops_methodology/
I respect anyone who spend many hours using metrics and mathematical formulas to make these kinds of predictions. But obviously there are some serious flaws in his system.
First, his most obvious flaw, he has Marshall designated as an MVC team. Probably an inadvertent mistake, but an error like that calls into question everything else.
Secondly, he appears to place too much weight on stats and results from last year's and earlier teams, without correcting for players who transferred. As a result, he ends up rating Murray State, Missouri State, Belmont, and UNI, teams that lost most of their key players to transfer, way too high, and ahead of the teams everyone else predicts to be at the top of the MVC this season. Maybe that corrects as the season progresses, but it throws his preseason ratings off.
His ranking of MVC teams-
1) Drake 59
2) Bradley 98
3) SIU 107
4) Indiana State `146
5) Valparaiso 170
6) Illinois State 183
7) Belmont 199
8 ) Missouri State 203
9) Murray State 206
10) Northern Iowa 214
11) Evansville 322
12) UIC 344
Another independent blogger who rates every Division I team-
https://lbenz730.shinyapps.io/recspe...tball_central/
Here is how he ranks the teams that he identifies as MVC teams-
1) Murray State 33
2) Missouri State 55
3) Belmont 92
4) UNI 100
5) Drake 115
6) Bradley 121
7) SIU 124
8 ) Illinois State 166
9) Valparaiso 185
10) Indiana State 252
11) Marshall 261
12) UIC 265
13) Evansville 310
Here is his methodology- https://lukebenz.com/post/hoops_methodology/
I respect anyone who spend many hours using metrics and mathematical formulas to make these kinds of predictions. But obviously there are some serious flaws in his system.
First, his most obvious flaw, he has Marshall designated as an MVC team. Probably an inadvertent mistake, but an error like that calls into question everything else.
Secondly, he appears to place too much weight on stats and results from last year's and earlier teams, without correcting for players who transferred. As a result, he ends up rating Murray State, Missouri State, Belmont, and UNI, teams that lost most of their key players to transfer, way too high, and ahead of the teams everyone else predicts to be at the top of the MVC this season. Maybe that corrects as the season progresses, but it throws his preseason ratings off.
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