Very, VERY early MVC predictions for next season

[Braves2006]

alot of people put UNI at # 1. I did not for the reason that when Carter left a big part of their offense left with or without Green

very true. I forgot about Carter being gone. Although Jacobsen always has his team ready for the conference part of the schedule somehow every year.

[lb071964]

If BU ends up sixth or lower, I’m buying the drinks. Mast will be 1st or 2nd team preseason all MVC. Leons will be 2nd or 3rd team as well. It’s top 3 or bust!

[Tommy]

If BU ends up sixth or lower, I’m buying the drinks. Mast will be 1st or 2nd team preseason all MVC. Leons will be 2nd or 3rd team as well. It’s top 3 or bust!

haha, I like it! Couldn't agree more, either, IB. We have way too much talent returning to finish that low, especially with BW as our HC. I would be VERY disappointed if that were to happen.

[Braves2006]

This is why I hate early season predictions.. haha. Carter now Green gone…. Revised. Still subject to change. Ha.

1. Drake
2. Belmont
3. SIU
4. Missouri St.
5. Bradley
6. UNI
7. Murray St.
8. Valpo
9. Indiana St.
10. UIC
11. Illinois St.
12. Evansville

[jturner38]

This is why I hate early season predictions.. haha. Carter now Green gone…. Revised. Still subject to change. Ha.

1. Drake
2. Belmont
3. SIU
4. Missouri St.
5. Bradley
6. UNI
7. Murray St.
8. Valpo
9. Indiana St.
10. UIC
11. Illinois St.
12. Evansville

1. Drake
2. Missouri State (With Mosley)
3. SIU
4. Bradley.
5. Indiana State
6. UNI
7. Valpo
8. Murray St
9. UIC
10. Belmont
11. Illinois St.
12. Evansville

[LittleBrave]

If BU ends up sixth or lower, I’m buying the drinks. Mast will be 1st or 2nd team preseason all MVC. Leons will be 2nd or 3rd team as well. It’s top 3 or bust!

Don't forget about JaShon - I think he'll end up 2nd team - Mast will be 1st team. Leons 2nd or 3rd team, with Hickman being on Most Improved.
We will have 1 on the All Newcomer team (I'm hoping) - and my guess would be Pop.

[LittleBrave]

1. Drake
2. Missouri State (With Mosley)
3. SIU
4. Bradley.
5. Indiana State
6. UNI
7. Valpo
8. Murray St
9. UIC
10. Belmont
11. Illinois St.
12. Evansville

Drake lost a bunch of guys, but I do think they finish Top 4.
If Mosley stays, he can carry them to Top 3 for sure.

If BU finishes worse than 4th, I'll be extremely disappointed.
I like the make-up of SIU and I think they are the next MVC team on the rise for a good stretch of 5 years.

[️ Fanatic]

https://twitter.com/hardwiredsports/status/1531309732014718978?s=21&t=fu3EzOgCXq1mIARgmX9h8w

Nice "early" write-up... that would be great if Hickman takes the next step!

[bradleyfan124]

https://twitter.com/hardwiredsports/...Xq1mIARgmX9h8w

Nice "early" write-up... that would be great if Hickman takes the next step!

I agree with everything that guy said about the conference and Bradley. I think it will be between Bradley and Drake and Connor Hickman will be a force for Bradley for the next 3 years

[Da Coach]

https://twitter.com/hardwiredsports/...Xq1mIARgmX9h8w

Nice "early" write-up... that would be great if Hickman takes the next step!

Yes, a pretty good assessment of next year's MVC race. I should probably wait until after tomorrow, since June 1st is the final day for players to withdraw from the NBA Draft and return to college. That will affect players like A.J. Green and Isiaih Mosley, who will almost surely withdraw, though neither is likely to return to the MVC.
But, here is my guess at how the 2022-23 preseason MVC season will go- feel free to criticize or comment
1) Bradley should be the consensus #2 pick in the preseason poll, since they return most of their talent, but I will go out on a limb and pick them #1. Terry Roberts is gone, but with the players Bradley added, the backcourt will still be strong, though they need guys like Ville, Connor Hickman, and others to step up the 3-point shooting. And I expect Ville to be 100% healthy this season, and Connor Hickman to be improved, as well as Zek Montgomery and others. And with a healthy Ja'Shon Henry, Bradley has the best frontcourt in the league, to go along with a top notch coaching staff.
2) Drake should be a near-unanimous pick for #1 in the 2022-23 preseason poll since they have their top 4 scorers returning, and 3 of them will be 5th year/Covid seniors. They lack size, but coaching still matters a lot, and Drake's coach is one of the best.
3) SIU returns their top 2 players, Marcus Domask and Lance Jones, some nice complementary players, and a couple transfers who will help immediately (Jawaun Newton & Xavier Davis). But, SIU lost 2 starters, Ben Coupet, Jr. and Steven Verplancken, who were their best 3-point shooters. It remains to be seen if other guys can step up and fill that 3-point shooting role, since in the MVC, like in most mid-major conferences, perimeter scoring is a key requirement to winning.
4) Belmont- They lost a couple key players, but still return a lot of their talent and they added some players who will help. Belmont will face tougher competition in the MVC, but they always seem to end up with 25 wins.
5) Northern Iowa- if by some miracle, A.J. Green returns to UNI, they will move up 2 or 3 spots. But they have just enough talent returning to stay competitive, though with losing Green and Noah Carter, not enough to finish much higher than middle of the pack, IMO.
6) Valparaiso- They return 4 of their top 5 scorers, including All-MVC (3rd team) Ben Krikke, so they should be able to stay out of the bottom 6
7) Indiana State- they have just enough talent returning to stay ahead of the teams below...
8 ) Missouri State- they also lost most of their talent, but they reloaded with some decent replacements. In most years, that would put them closer to the bottom, but this year, since a bunch of other teams were depleted, MSU should be able to stay out of the bottom 4.
9) Murray State- I'm not sure there was any D1 team that lost more than Murray State. But, they should still be better than the last 3
10) UIC- they return their leading scorer Damaria Franklin, but not much else. Stepping up the the MVC will be as difficult for UIC as it was for Valparaiso (Valpo was co-champ of the Horizon in 2016, but finished dead last in the MVC in 2017). They have little inside game, and not enough shooters.
11) Illinois State lost most of their talent, and are playing for a new coach. Despite adding a few decent transfers, it will be tough for them to win many games next season. 2022-23 might be a test to see how good a coach Ryan Pedon is.
12) Evansville is so depleted in talent, that they would probably go winless if 2022-23 was an ordinary MVC season. But with so many weaker teams, they could win a couple games, but not enough to get out of 12th place.

(Note: teams 4 through 9 were tough to pick, and could finish in any permutation)

[Nashville Cat]

Yes, a pretty good assessment of next year's MVC race. I should probably wait until after tomorrow, since June 1st is the final day for players to withdraw from the NBA Draft and return to college. That will affect players like A.J. Green and Isiaih Mosley, who will almost surely withdraw, though neither is likely to return to the MVC.
But, here is my guess at how the 2022-23 preseason MVC season will go- feel free to criticize or comment
1) Bradley should be the consensus #2 pick in the preseason poll, since they return most of their talent, but I will go out on a limb and pick them #1. Terry Roberts is gone, but with the players Bradley added, the backcourt will still be strong, though they need guys like Ville, Connor Hickman, and others to step up the 3-point shooting. And I expect Ville to be 100% healthy this season, and Connor Hickman to be improved, as well as Zek Montgomery and others. And with a healthy Ja'Shon Henry, Bradley has the best frontcourt in the league, to go along with a top notch coaching staff.
2) Drake should be a near-unanimous pick for #1 in the 2022-23 preseason poll since they have their top 4 scorers returning, and 3 of them will be 5th year/Covid seniors. They lack size, but coaching still matters a lot, and Drake's coach is one of the best.
3) SIU returns their top 2 players, Marcus Domask and Lance Jones, some nice complementary players, and a couple transfers who will help immediately (Jawaun Newton & Xavier Davis). But, SIU lost 2 starters, Ben Coupet, Jr. and Steven Verplancken, who were their best 3-point shooters. It remains to be seen if other guys can step up and fill that 3-point shooting role, since in the MVC, like in most mid-major conferences, perimeter scoring is a key requirement to winning.
4) Belmont- They lost a couple key players, but still return a lot of their talent and they added some players who will help. Belmont will face tougher competition in the MVC, but they always seem to end up with 25 wins.
5) Northern Iowa- if by some miracle, A.J. Green returns to UNI, they will move up 2 or 3 spots. But they have just enough talent returning to stay competitive, though with losing Green and Noah Carter, not enough to finish much higher than middle of the pack, IMO.
6) Valparaiso- They return 4 of their top 5 scorers, including All-MVC (3rd team) Ben Krikke, so they should be able to stay out of the bottom 6
7) Indiana State- they have just enough talent returning to stay ahead of the teams below...
8 ) Missouri State- they also lost most of their talent, but they reloaded with some decent replacements. In most years, that would put them closer to the bottom, but this year, since a bunch of other teams were depleted, MSU should be able to stay out of the bottom 4.
9) Murray State- I'm not sure there was any D1 team that lost more than Murray State. But, they should still be better than the last 3
10) UIC- they return their leading scorer Damaria Franklin, but not much else. Stepping up the the MVC will be as difficult for UIC as it was for Valparaiso (Valpo was co-champ of the Horizon in 2016, but finished dead last in the MVC in 2017). They have little inside game, and not enough shooters.
11) Illinois State lost most of their talent, and are playing for a new coach. Despite adding a few decent transfers, it will be tough for them to win many games next season. 2022-23 might be a test to see how good a coach Ryan Pedon is.
12) Evansville is so depleted in talent, that they would probably go winless if 2022-23 was an ordinary MVC season. But with so many weaker teams, they could win a couple games, but not enough to get out of 12th place.

(Note: teams 4 through 9 were tough to pick, and could finish in any permutation)

Coach, great post (special kudos for using 'permutation') ! I'd add that Drake might be the oldest team in the Valley and though they have experience and continuity their leader, Roman Penn, has chronic foot injuries and their older players have plateued. Devries needs to be a POY if they're going to be Champs.

I've BU 2nd and ask where's the incremental improvement coming from? Malevy and Hickman is my guess, if Duke Deen is even close to Terry Roberts that's beyond huge. Sleeper contributor: Linke or Zek (no e).

Biggest failure modes: bad 3pt shooting %

[LittleBrave]

Biggest failure modes: bad 3pt shooting %

We can't shoot as poorly from beyond the arc and from the FT stripe and expect to finish Top 3. No chance.
These are the 2 areas I think we need more work than anything for the coming season...along with that toughness to keep leads on the road.

The inside-to-outside (kick-out) pass has pretty much been lacking since the Coach Mo era IMO.
I don't understand it year after year, but I guess we have to succeed without it. Would create more opportunities for high % buckets, though Mast could be a beast inside, and JaShon should have his way in the paint with all his experience.

Looking for some bonus production inside from D-Hann and a newcomer or 2.

[bradleyfan124]

Coach, great post (special kudos for using 'permutation') ! I'd add that Drake might be the oldest team in the Valley and though they have experience and continuity their leader, Roman Penn, has chronic foot injuries and their older players have plateued. Devries needs to be a POY if they're going to be Champs.

I've BU 2nd and ask where's the incremental improvement coming from? Malevy and Hickman is my guess, if Duke Deen is even close to Terry Roberts that's beyond huge. Sleeper contributor: Linke or Zek (no e).

Biggest failure modes: bad 3pt shooting %

I think Christain Davis might be a surprise for us

[braves16]

Coach, great post (special kudos for using 'permutation') ! I'd add that Drake might be the oldest team in the Valley and though they have experience and continuity their leader, Roman Penn, has chronic foot injuries and their older players have plateued. Devries needs to be a POY if they're going to be Champs.

I've BU 2nd and ask where's the incremental improvement coming from? Malevy and Hickman is my guess, if Duke Deen is even close to Terry Roberts that's beyond huge. Sleeper contributor: Linke or Zek (no e).

Biggest failure modes: bad 3pt shooting %

Drake might be the oldest team in the country.
They don't need to worry about NIL deals since half of their team is already cashing social security checks.

[Da Coach]

Drake might be the oldest team in the country.
They don't need to worry about NIL deals since half of their team is already cashing social security checks.

Roman Penn will be 25 years old by the time the 2022-23 season starts (birth date Sept. 1, 1997)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Penn

D.J. Wilkins will also be 25 years old (birth date Oct. 13, 1997).
Garrett Sturtz and Darnell Brodie might be close to that age, though I can't find their birth dates.