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MVC seeding probabilities

Da Coach

Da Coach

Moderator
Staff member
MVC seeding probabilities by Matt Hackman, based on 100,000 computer simulations and on Jeff Sagarin's analytics-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...18700234919942

Bradley's greatest probabilities are pretty evenly split between the 4th and 5th seed, but it's it still early enough that there is a 1% chance they could still get the #1 seed. :)

dumb-and-dumber-theres-a-chance-gif.gif
 
Seeding probabilities update from Matt Hackman-
It's still too early to start planning which MVC Tournament session Bradley will play in, but it looks like last night's loss strengthened the likelihood Bradley is headed for the #5 seed. By the way, the #5 seed would mean the familiar 2:30 pm game in Session 2 on Friday afternoon in St. Louis....
Anything but the Thursday games.
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1489270428086554626

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Note that Bradley's 56% probability of the #5 seed is exceeded only by SIU's probability of the #6 seed and Evansville's 87% probability of the #10 seed.
 
6 games to go for BU this season. 4 home and 2 road games. I think every game is winnable as long as we bring the defensive mentality that we've had, other than the UNI game, the last 3 weeks. The next 2 games will tell whether or not we can get above the 4/5 game. Will probably need to go 5-1 to have a chance for the 3 seed.
 
The 4-5 game is generally better than the 3-6 because it’s easier to win 3 games in 46.5 hours as opposed to 40.5. That said I’d rather face SIU again than try for a 3 game sweep of Drake.
 
Da Coach said:
Another update from Matt Hackman-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1495511710769324034

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Odds for the matchups in the 4-5 game-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1495549103438188547

4 vs 5 odds:
55% Drake-Bradley
15% MSU-Bradley
12% UNI-Bradley
11% Loyola-Bradley
5% MSU-Drake
Click to expand...

I would hate to play Drake again. Hard to beat a team 3 times in a row. However having said that Bradley seems to have better luck at beating the upper echelon teams than the lower teams
 
Tommy said:
I think that's about where I'd put them too!
Click to expand...

At this point, without seeing how we perform on the road against MSU, I would make this a 5 team list. I would add SIU in there at #4, right in between MSU and UNI. Domask simply owned us in Carbondale and if Jones could hit FTs, we lose by 20. Also, they will have the place packed with students.

Many reasons have me worried about SIU. We swept Drake. Should have swept Loyola except for the 2nd half meltdown at Gentile. Lost to MSU, by 1, on a fluke jumper by the presumed MVC POY, Mosley. Of the non-play in teams our only 2 games that got out of hand were at SIU and UNI. The series, this year, with SIU is a virtual push. We beat them by 8 at Carver and they beat us by 8 at Carbondale. Lastly, the fact that if we do get SIU would mean we closed out strong and finished 3rd could bring a level of over-confidence to this young squad. That could be extremely detrimental.

I’m just ready for the tournament. So many different scenarios. Let’s just toss it up, play smart, and see what happens!
 
To get SIU we’d have to be the 3-seed, which means wins @MSU and vs. Valpo and get help. We own tiebreakers over Drake and UNI but if there’s a pileup you especially want Drake to be in there with us since that was a sweep. Altogether I’d prefer to just play Drake in the 4-5, and hopefully UNI is a 2 or 3 on the other side of the bracket.
 
Beating the same team 3 times in a year is never a given, but looking at the options, Drake does seem to be the best right now but I think it's easy to think that way after we've beat them twice. Honestly, if we come with the D like we know we can, there's nobody in the Valley that should be able to stay with us.

As far as SIU, they do not scare me that much. We played extremely soft in that game and still almost came back and won in their place. If they are realistically in the equation, I think they'd be my preferred matchup in round 1 personally.
 
I keep thinking where we would be if we had not lost to Illinois State there, Indiana State there, and Missouri State on a last second shot. Damn!! Damn !! and Double damn!! Wait a minute I guess that would be triple Damn. ....Damn!!
 
bradleyfan124 said:
I keep thinking where we would be if we had not lost to Illinois State there, Indiana State there, and Missouri State on a last second shot. Damn!! Damn !! and Double damn!! Wait a minute I guess that would be triple Damn. ....Damn!!
Click to expand...

I think about those games and the Loyola meltdown frequently. It’s mind numbing!!
 
bradleyfan124 said:
I keep thinking where we would be if we had not lost to Illinois State there, Indiana State there, and Missouri State on a last second shot. Damn!! Damn !! and Double damn!! Wait a minute I guess that would be triple Damn. ....Damn!!
Click to expand...

MAN! Never thought about that, but we'd be alone in 1st place! That shows you just how good this team can be. Wow! thanks for pointing that out, BF124!
 
bradleyfan124 said:
I keep thinking where we would be if we had not lost to Illinois State there, Indiana State there, and Missouri State on a last second shot. Damn!! Damn !! and Double damn!! Wait a minute I guess that would be triple Damn. ....Damn!!
Click to expand...

I think about that a lot. Those losses might help this young team come tournament time. Those losses show that you better come to play every night and this team really needs to be reminded of that.
This tournament is wide open and I think any of the top 5 or 6 teams are capable of winning it all. Let's go BU and show everyone who we are and that our starters will be back for 1 or, possibly, 2 more years together.
 
Boys, 100% of our Arch Madness titles have come from the 4/5 game. We’ve got them right where we want them.
 
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