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Early look at MVC Tournament seeding probabilities

Da Coach

Da Coach

Moderator
Matt Hackman has been doing these projections for several years for many conferences, including the MVC.
He uses USA Today's Jeff Sagarin's rankings and predictions. Then he runs 100,000 computer simulations for the remaining games of the season to get the probabilities. His current predictions place Bradley between 3rd and 5th seed, highest likelihood is 4th seed, with 10.26 expected wins.
He has Drake #1, MSU #2, Loyola #3, and Bradley #4. Then there is a big drop down to UNI #5, INSU #6, SIU #7, UE #8, Valpo #9, & ILSU #10. Interesting, but too early to believe these probabilities will be completely accurate.
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...31704509353987

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Latest update of the MVC seeding probabilities by Matt Hackman-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...14444785143808

Things have changed a lot for Bradley's odds.

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Based on these calculations, which in turn are based on the Jeff Sagarin winning predictions, Bradley has the following chances-
0% chance of landing the #1 or #2 seed
≈0.4% chance of the #3 seed
3% chance of the #4 seed
42% chance of the #5 seed
25% chance of the #6 seed
17% chance of the #7 seed
9% chance of the #8 seed
2% chance of the #9 seed
1% chance of the #10 seed
 
We have 5 games left and at 5-8 in the conference we can't afford to finish any worse than 3-2 which won't be easy as we go to MSU for 2, host ISU Red on the 17th and host 2 with Drake on the 26th and the 27th. Looking forward to watching Loyola at Drake this Saturday at 11:00 on ESPN and Sunday at 2:00 on ESPN 2. A sweep should mean a regular season championship. Teams from 3rd to 9th have between 5 to 9 loses so any win is huge. Valpo plays 2 at UNI this weekend and SIU hosts the Redbirds for 2 this weekend. ISU Blue plays at Evansville on Sunday then the Purple Aces go to Terre Haute on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday Valpo goes to Loyola, UNI hosts Drake and MSU goes to SIU. On the 20th and 21st Valpo plays at SIU. On the 22nd and 23rd Evansville plays at Drake. The last weekend of the regular season has ISU Blue at Valpo for 2, MSU at Evansville for 2, SIU at Loyola for 2 and UNI at ISU Red for 2. I just hope we don't have to win both against Drake to avoid the play in game.
 
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