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Preseason MVC poll predictions

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  • Preseason MVC poll predictions

    We are a few weeks away from when the preseason polls start coming out. But below I will list what my guess is for this year's MVC Preseason poll by the coaches and media. Please feel free to comment or criticize, and add your own projection. Again, this is asking what your you think the official MVC poll will be when it comes out, but you can post your own ranking if you want.
    There are a lot of unknowns, since we haven't gotten much info on all the new incoming players, transfers, and sit-out/returning players for every team.

    My guess-
    1) UNI- I think they will get the most votes because they return their top 3 players from the regular season winners last year (Green, Berhow, and Phyfe) and they will have the preseason POY in Green
    2) Loyola- it will be very close, and maybe Loyola will get the #1, because they finished a close 2nd last season and return their entire starting 5
    3) Bradley- Bradley lost 3 starters in top scorer Darrell Brown, best shooter in Nate Kennell, and center Koch Bar. But they have maybe the best incoming group of new players. So there will probably be some voters who aren't convinced Bradley can repeat at 3rd place. But I don't think the other teams have quite enough to pass them.
    4) Missouri State- they lost a lot from last season's underachieving team, but they still have a lot of talent. I think the voters will give them the edge over Indiana State and Valpo
    5) Indiana State- InSU tied Bradley for 3rd place last year, and they have 4 starters returning in leading scorer Tyreke Key, Jake LaRavia, Cooper Neese, and Tre Williams, but depth is questionable.
    6) Valparaiso- They finished tied for 6th last season, but made the run to the MVC Tournament championship game. Their only 2 significant losses are perimeter big men Ryan Fazekas (2nd leading scorer) and John Kizer, which will hurt them. (note: Javon Freeman-Liberty transferred to DePaul)
    7) Drake- the bottom 4 picks seem pretty clear- all are in major rebuild modes- Losing Liam Robbins really hurts Drake, but the voters believe De Vries is a good enough coach and they have enough returning talent to stay out of the bottom 3 of the league.
    8 ) Illinois State- Finished 9th last year and were one-and-done in the MVC Tournament. They lost their top scorer Zach Copeland, and their #4 scorer Jaycee Hillsman, but otherwise return the bulk of their rotation, plus some jucos, transfers and freshman. They could surprise, but preseason poll voters will probably not be expecting much.
    9) SIU- After overachieving last year (finished 5th), it will be a bit harder this season after graduating Eric McGill, Barret Benson, Ronnie Suggs, and losing most of the rest of their roster to transfer. The only returning players who averaged more than 3 ppg are Marcus Domask and Lance Jones, but they did add some decent incoming talent and have redshirt shooter Ben Harvey available this season.
    10) Evansville- Todd Lickliter will have a tough task to stay out of the bottom of the MVC. Evansville returns only 1 player who scored more than 6 ppg last year, Sam Cunliffe, and he has not shown himself to be a very effective perimeter player (31% from three). He will get more defensive attention, and Evansville's lack of big men won't help him. And, I don't see any impact players among their incoming new guys.

  • #2
    I thought Liberty transferee to DePaul?

    Comment


    • #3
      Yes, correction- Javon Freeman Liberty is not with Valpo. How quickly one forgets.

      Comment


      • #4
        This blogger has a pretty good in-depth assessment. Some of his application of advanced metrics from last season seems a bit overboard considering they will not likely apply to this season.
        https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/...l-preview-2021

        The only thing I would differ with is his clumping of 7 teams from 3-9 (including Bradley) as "Tier 2". I think there is a big range there, and that 2 or 3 of those Tier 2 teams are closer to the level of #10 Evansville (Tier 3) than to the upper teams in his Tier 2.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Da Coach View Post
          This blogger has a pretty good in-depth assessment. Some of his application of advanced metrics from last season seems a bit overboard considering they will not likely apply to this season.
          https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/...l-preview-2021

          The only thing I would differ with is his clumping of 7 teams from 3-9 (including Bradley) as "Tier 2". I think there is a big range there, and that 2 or 3 of those Tier 2 teams are closer to the level of #10 Evansville (Tier 3) than to the upper teams in his Tier 2.
          That was a good read. I agree that the Tier 2 is way too wide, I'd put Illinois State and Valpo down there in Tier 3. I think Bradley would be borderline Tier 1 but we have a lot of unproven talent coming in. I like us being the underdog though, I feel like Wardle really puts a chip on the teams shoulder all season long.

          Comment


          • #6
            CBSSports Jon Rothstein writes:
            10 mid-majors to watch for the 20-21 season
            https://collegehoopstoday.com/index....-20-21-season/

            Nice to see Northern Iowa and Loyola get some recognition among the top 10 mid-majors. Unfortunately, Bradley isn't getting any of the same recognition.
            He also says this about Loyola-
            "Upperclassmen Cameron Krutwig and Lucas Williamson were major contributors during the 2018 Final Four run and should be be two of the best mid-major players in the country next season."

            I fully agree about Krutwig. I believe he has been their MVP the last 3 years, despite the MVC POY award going to Clayton Custer and Marques Townes in 2018 & 2019. But I don't quite agree on Williamson. I woudn't put him in the same category as being one of the "best mid-major players in the country". He's a valuable role player, but they have several other players who worry me more. He was Loyola's 5th leading scorer last season, and was only a 33% 3-point shooter.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Da Coach View Post
              But I don't quite agree on Williamson. I woudn't put him in the same category as being one of the two "best mid-major players in the country". He's a valuable role player, but they have several other players who worry me more. He was Loyola's 5th leading scorer last season, and was only a 33% 3-point shooter.
              I totally agree with you. Definitely hyperbole that reeks of him just looking at the roster, and comparing to 2018 and then using his appearance on both as justification.

              Comment


              • #8
                Bradley should be in tier 1 but I understand why people may not put them there. They have a lot of unknowns. But in my opinion they belong in tier 1 based on their depth. UNI and Loyola have talent and experience but they don’t have 9 guys who are good enough to start. BU will come at you in waves this year and with their athletic ability their defense could be improved over last year, and that’s saying a lot. Of the nine below point out one of them that wouldn’t start for most MVC teams or at least get significant minutes.

                Childs
                Nolan
                East
                McAdoo
                Henry
                Mast
                Tahvanainen
                Kingsby
                Boya

                I know for most, 4 of the guys haven’t played a BU game yet and are considered unknown. But three of them have started for D1 teams and one played professionally. It’s going to be a fun year if this virus doesn’t screw it up.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Has anyone seen any of the preseason college basketball magazines out yet? Usually they start appearing about now. We'll try to find out how they are picking the MVC race this season.

                  For those fans who are desperate for anything related to the 2020-21 MVC season, here is a summary of the Illinois State team from Bloomington Pantagraph writer Jim Benson-

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Having a PG emerge and lock down the starting job (and lead the team) is the key. If that happens we will not miss a beat and be a tier 1 team. That is the big unknown.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      We have the best true PG that we have had since Ruffin on the team now. I know we haven’t seen him in a BU uniform yet but as a freshman he competed at a high level and was successful. He didn’t have to sit out a year like most and he will be a force. I know we need to see it on the floor in a BU uniform but we will.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Sean East played his freshman season at University of Massachusetts in the Atlantic-10 Conference, which is fairly comparable competition level to the MVC. Bradley has been blessed with many very good point guards in the past, and below is a comparison from the freshman seasons* of several of the best BU point guards of the last 40 years.
                        Note that these guards are all different and their stats are somewhat dependent on who they played with, which coach and style of play, and what role they were called upon to fill (i.e. Darrel Brown more of a scorer, Daniel Ruffin more a facilitator, etc)-

                        Point guard...........Games.....Starts......PPG.....Assi sts/g.
                        Sean East..................31...........20............9 .3.........4.9
                        Daniel Ruffin..............28...........27............6.3 .........4.7
                        Darrell Brown.............32...........30...........12.6.. ......2.7
                        Walt Lemon................31...........5..............6 .4.........0.9 (Walt did not play PG as a freshman-was moved to PG his 2nd, 3rd, & 4th seasons)
                        Sam Maniscalco........38...........15.............7.7. ........3.0
                        Marcello Robinson.....31...........13............5.2....... ...2.0
                        Rob Dye.................... 29............6.............3.1..........1.6
                        Billy Wright.................27...........27............ 8.6..........4.4
                        Charles White............31...........31............7.8... .......3.9
                        Anthony Manuel........23.............0.............1.8.... ......1.3 (Anthony Manuel was a backup his freshman year)
                        Anthony Manuel (SO.)27.............16................8.7......... ...8.8 (Anthony Manuel became starting point guard his sophomore season after Jim Les left)
                        Jim Les......................22...........22.......... ...6.3..........7.2 (*Jim Les' sophomore stats- he became eligible at BU after 1st semester of his sophomore season)

                        I am not making any predictions, but for what it's worth, Sean East's freshman stats look pretty good compared to the best point guards in Bradley's past. Only Darrel Brown had a higher scoring average as a freshman, and East's 4.9 assists per game is better than any freshman point guard since the high-scoring Hersey Hawkins/Dick Versace era.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          The official Missouri Valley Conference preseason poll and preseason All-MVC picks will be released on Thursday (Oct. 15).

                          The yearly Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook just came out. Their picks for the MVC are:
                          1. Loyola
                          2. Northern Iowa
                          3. Bradley
                          4. SIU
                          5. Indiana State
                          6. Missouri State
                          7. Drake
                          8. Illinois State
                          9. Valparaiso
                          10. Evansville

                          Those picks aren't too different than my predictions, except they have SIU picked way higher than I would pick.
                          SIU did overachieve last year, finishing 5th in the standings after being picked dead last in the 2019-20 preseason poll. But they won't have the size, the experience or the depth they had last year. They return only 2 starters- Marcus Domask (13.6 ppg) and Lance Jones (9.3 ppg), along with backup guard Trent Brown (2.8 ppg). and rarely used reserves Sekou Dembele (1.6 ppg in 10 games) and walk-on Will Keller (1.0 ppg in 5 games). Bryan Mullins impressed me with his coaching, so maybe they can do it again.

                          I just found out that Street & Smith and Athlon, two of the better yearly preseason basketball magazines, will not be publishing a 2020-21 version. Another yearly magazine, Lindy's, came out couple weeks ago, but I haven't seen their MVC preview yet.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Never fails to see ‘pundits’ listing Loyola at the top of the MVC in preseason polls. I think most of these ‘pundits’ pick them because it’s the only school name they recognize.

                            I personally feel like SIU and Valpo will surprise folks due to good coaching, but they lost so much talent they will no doubt struggle early on.

                            BU, Northern Iowa, and Loyola are probably the perennial top 3 for as long as the coaches are in their respective spots.
                            Larry Bird
                            I've got a theory that if you give 100 percent all of the time, somehow things will work out in the end.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Da Coach View Post
                              The official Missouri Valley Conference preseason poll and preseason All-MVC picks will be released on Thursday (Oct. 15).

                              The yearly Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook just came out. Their picks for the MVC are:
                              1. Loyola
                              2. Northern Iowa
                              3. Bradley
                              4. SIU
                              5. Indiana State
                              6. Missouri State
                              7. Drake
                              8. Illinois State
                              9. Valparaiso
                              10. Evansville

                              Those picks aren't too different than my predictions, except they have SIU picked way higher than I would pick.
                              SIU did overachieve last year, finishing 5th in the standings after being picked dead last in the 2019-20 preseason poll. But they won't have the size, the experience or the depth they had last year. They return only 2 starters- Marcus Domask (13.6 ppg) and Lance Jones (9.3 ppg), along with backup guard Trent Brown (2.8 ppg). and rarely used reserves Sekou Dembele (1.6 ppg in 10 games) and walk-on Will Keller (1.0 ppg in 5 games). Bryan Mullins impressed me with his coaching, so maybe they can do it again.

                              I just found out that Street & Smith and Athlon, two of the better yearly preseason basketball magazines, will not be publishing a 2020-21 version. Another yearly magazine, Lindy's, came out couple weeks ago, but I haven't seen their MVC preview yet.
                              I used to love Street & Smith. Could not wait for it to come out. Then after getting it I would read for days and keep it around for future reference of other teams that I watched thru the season

                              Comment

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