4 Valley games left. Anything decided?

[basketball nut]

Here is the preseason poll results alongside the current standings-


The most notable thing is that virtually everyone was wrong about Missouri State. Instead of leading the MVC, they are a .500 team. They are currently tied for 5th and have the 8th best overall record.

Right now Missouri State is playing better and I have to wonder if they still might be a team to reckon with. That was a big win at ISU Blue Saturday. I hope we aren't overlooking them Wednesday night because we might find ourselves in trouble. Might not be as easy as it was in Springfield.

[Tommy]

Right now Missouri State is playing better and I have to wonder if they still might be a team to reckon with. That was a big win at ISU Blue Saturday. I hope we aren't overlooking them Wednesday night because we might find ourselves in trouble. Might not be as easy as it was in Springfield.

They've certainly improved, but so have with with Eli back. We'll find out on Wednesday night!

[Da Coach]

I was just introduced to Matt Hackman's work listening to the most recent March to the Arch podcast. He does MVC tournament probabilities as the season winds down. He has BU pretty firmly as a 3 seed. Check out his twitter @mjhackman for the latest each week.
BTW, the March to the Arch podcast has been a great way to keep tabs on the Valley all season. I encourage everyone to check it out, even if you do just fast forward to the mentions of BU to get outsider perspectives on what they see in this team (both guys are scared of BU's potential right now with EC back). I hope Baker and Vance can keep it going for years to come.
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...594818050?s=20

Thanks for posting that. I have posted his computations the last couple years. I personally don't like to start looking at those precise kind of calculations until we get down to the last couple games. It gives me a headache considering all the permutations!

But it does give us an idea where Bradley might finish. There is still a tiny chance Bradley could finish 1st, but also an even smaller chance they could drop to 7th and have to play Thursday!

[Da Coach]

I read that in January 2019 the Missouri Valley is going to use each teams NET score to decide any tie breakers. So even if Bradley beats Loyola at home for their last regular season game and ties Loyola for second in the MVC standings - Bradley may likely still end up third in the MVC Tournament bracket. And if both Loyola and Bradley end 2nd and 3rd in the MVC standings (or visa versa) - chances are very good that these 2 teams will face each other in their second game Saturday round. 2019 MVC Tournament "Deja Vu".

Yes, you are right. The MVC Tiebreaker was changed prior to last season's tournament, and the tiebreaker now uses the NET to break ties if the head-to-head competition doesn't favor one team over the other.

https://mvc-sports.com/news/2018/12/18/arch-madness-revises-tiebreaker.aspx

Two-way Ties
1. Records in head-to-head competition are compared, with the higher seed going to the team that has won the most games against the other.
2. If head-to-head competition does not break the tie, the deadlock will be broken using the NCAA Evaluation Tool (N.E.T.), as published by the NCAA on the morning after the final regular-season MVC games (March 3, 2019). The team with the better N.E.T. rating will receive the higher seed.

Multiple Ties
1. If three or more teams are tied, regular-season competition among the tied schools shall be pooled into a “mini round-robin.” Teams shall be ranked according to their position in such a round-robin.
2. If head-to-head competition does not break the tie, the deadlock will be broken using the NCAA Evaluation Tool (N.E.T.), as published by the NCAA on the morning after the final regular-season MVC games (March 3, 2019). Team will be seeded based on their N.E.T. rating.

Here are the current NET rankings-

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/conference/Missouri-Valley

As of now, Loyola's NET (94) is slightly better than Bradley's (103), but it's possible those numbers could still change.
Of course, Bradley must win the final game of the schedule against Loyola to achieve a tie in the head-to-head competition for the NET to be relevant.

[Go_Braves]

After the February 19 - Wednesday night OT win over Missouri State - if Bradley wins just 1 more game - and hopefully they will win their final 3 games... But if they win just 1 more game - there is no way Bradley will finish in the bottom 4 teams going into the MVC Tournament. Bradley finishing either second or third - the stars will likely line up for a Bradley Loyola second round game and a Bradley Northern Iowa final game - but that can change in the blink of an eye. If Mo State plays either Loyola or Northern Iowa Friday or Saturday in the 2020 MVC Tournament - I will definitely tune into that game as well.

GO BRAVES ..... !!!

[Da Coach]

Now with 3 games left for each MVC team, the standings look like this-


Here are the 3 games each of the top 4 teams have left-
Northern Iowa- home vs. SIU, home vs. Evansville, and at Drake
Loyola- at Missouri State, home vs. Drake, and at Bradley
Bradley- at Valparaiso, at Illinois State, and home vs. Loyola
SIU- at UNI, home vs. Indiana State, and at Missouri State

It looks to me like SIU might have the toughest schedule remaining with 2 road games against teams that are tough at home (UNI & MSU) and a home game against Indiana St.
UNI appears to have maybe the easiest schedule with home games against SIU and 0-15 Evansville, and only 1 road game at Drake. I don't see them losing again.
Loyola and Bradley both have 2 tough road games, and a home game.
There are a lot of possibilities over the next 3 games, but all Bradley can do is try to win out and hope for the best.

[bigjimmy]

UNI is undefeated at home but SIU did beat them about a month ago. I think Loyola will have trouble at Missouri State so as long as we take care of business at Valpo we could be in 4th, tied for 3rd, in 3rd by ourselves, tied for 2nd or dare I say we could have a 3 or 4 way tie for 1st.

[egib52]

Current NET has Loyola at 95, and we are at 103. So if we win out, and tie with Loyola it will be interesting to see where the NETs would be. We both dropped one spot with home wins this week.

[egib52]

Wow I was just looking at NET, and the NCAA did a great job of propping it up for the P5. Look at DePaul for instance:

74

74

DePaul

Big East

12-13

4-6

0-0

8-7

1-0

I concede that they did well in the non-con, but they are 1-12 in the Big East. They have lost 8 in a row, and their only win was a home game against Butler (still impressive). However, they are 30 places in front of us even with a below 500 record.

Then there is Kansas St, who we obviously beat:

99

97

Kansas St.

Big 12

9-17

1-8

0-3

8-6

0-0

They are 4 spots ahead of us with that abysmal record, and they are 2-11 in conference and have lost 6 in a row. The unfortunate thing is if they keep dropping, so will we.

Not that I didn't think this would happen, but there should be some consideration given to the mid majors.

[Tommy]

egib, great points. The NCAA doesn't care about mid-majors, it only cares about money. Until the mid-majors come together and do something to fight back, this will always be an issue. It's very frustrating.

[Da Coach]

Wow I was just looking at NET, and the NCAA did a great job of propping it up for the P5. Look at DePaul for instance:

74

74

DePaul

Big East

12-13

4-6

0-0

8-7

1-0

I concede that they did well in the non-con, but they are 1-12 in the Big East. They have lost 8 in a row, and their only win was a home game against Butler (still impressive). However, they are 30 places in front of us even with a below 500 record.

Then there is Kansas St, who we obviously beat:

99

97

Kansas St.

Big 12

9-17

1-8

0-3

8-6

0-0

They are 4 spots ahead of us with that abysmal record, and they are 2-11 in conference and have lost 6 in a row. The unfortunate thing is if they keep dropping, so will we.

Not that I didn't think this would happen, but there should be some consideration given to the mid majors.

Egib, you hit the nail on the head. Right from the beginning it was predicted that the switch to the NET would favor the Power-6 conference teams. It puts more weight on the quality of teams you play, regardless whether you win or lose. And DePaul is in the Big East, which is by far the #1 ranked conference in NET, no thanks to DePaul.-

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/conferencenet

DePaul's non-conference schedule was not that great- their non-conference RPI was 258. Where the NET helps them out is that they are playing most of their games against good Big East Conference teams, and because the conference requires half of them to be on their home court, they even have a chance to win some. DePaul has only won 1 Big East game (they are currently 1-12), but even if they went 0-18 they would still have a better NET than Bradley just by playing 18 games against better teams that Bradley is able to get on their schedule.

Then add to this that some Power-6 conferences have increased the number of conference games they play, so they do not have to play any mid-majors and risk getting beat. And it makes it nearly impossible for the mid-majors to build a good schedule that would benefit them with the NET. THus even good mi-majors end up with lousy NET numbers, since they have to play in a weaker conference against some mediocre teams.
So it is all rigged to get more Power-6 teams in, and keep more mid-majors out.
Unfortunately, unlike the RPI, which a lot of mid-major schools found a way to overcome, the NET coupled with the reluctance now of Power-6 teams to even schedule any mid-majors, is nearly impossible to overcome. I predict we'll see fewer Mid-majors getting at-large bids than ever (not counting the Gonzagas, Butlers, & Daytons which are a cut above the typical mid-major).

[patrick_o'brian]

Wow I was just looking at NET, and the NCAA did a great job of propping it up for the P5. Look at DePaul for instance:

74

74

DePaul

Big East

12-13

4-6

0-0

8-7

1-0

I concede that they did well in the non-con, but they are 1-12 in the Big East. They have lost 8 in a row, and their only win was a home game against Butler (still impressive). However, they are 30 places in front of us even with a below 500 record.

Then there is Kansas St, who we obviously beat:

99

97

Kansas St.

Big 12

9-17

1-8

0-3

8-6

0-0

They are 4 spots ahead of us with that abysmal record, and they are 2-11 in conference and have lost 6 in a row. The unfortunate thing is if they keep dropping, so will we.

Not that I didn't think this would happen, but there should be some consideration given to the mid majors.

This is my thinking to a "T". I am so happy with Bradley's performance this year and had so much fun in Des Moines last year that it pains me to think that 1 slip up in St. Louis and we don't get to experience that again this year. I guess it's my pessimistic side overpowering my optimistic side. It just isn't fair!!

[Tommy]

This is my thinking to a "T". I am so happy with Bradley's performance this year and had so much fun in Des Moines last year that it pains me to think that 1 slip up in St. Louis and we don't get to experience that again this year. I guess it's my pessimistic side overpowering my optimistic side. It just isn't fair!!

I think we're all with you on that point, Patrick.

[Da Coach]

Here is Matt Hackman's latest data about the MVC. The top graph shows probabilities for each of the remaining 15 games. Note that Bradley is favored in all 3 remaining games over Valparaiso, Illinois State and Loyola. The lower graph is his projections for seeding in the MVC Tournament. Bradley can still mathematically finish as high as #1 and as low as #6, though the likelihood of #6 is close to 0%. The greatest likelihood is the #3 seed, followed by #2, then #4. Of course, nobody can predict the outcomes of the games with certainty. The seeding determines who Bradley will play, and which session they will play in on Friday. Of course, only seeds #7, #8, #9, and #10 play on Thursday. Seeds #1 & #4 play in the Friday afternoon session- #1 plays at 12:05 pm and #4 plays at 2:35 pm. And Seeds #2 & #3 play in the Friday night session- Seed #2 plays at 6:35 pm and Seed #3 plays at 8:35 pm.
Here is the Arch Madness schedule- http://mvc-sports.com/feature/20Arch

https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1230863150528040960/photo/1

[bigjimmy]

Well with 2 games to go let's see what we have. It would be absolutely shocking to see UNI not win the regular season with games at home against Evansville and at Drake. Speaking of Drake that loss against the Redbirds might have sealed their fate for the play in game. They finish at Loyola then host UNI. Missouri State travels to Valpo on Tuesday and SIU and ISU Blue play in Carbondale on Wednesday. Hopefully we take care of business on Wednesday. The up to date NET rankings, which are used for two way ties of teams that spilt their season series or multi teams ties after using a round robin format of those teams records against one another, are these:
UNI 46
Loyola 98
BU 106
ISU Blue 110
MSU 124
Valpo 134
SIU 139
Drake 165

Evansville Men's and woman's teams still haven't won a conference game. The men are 0-16 and are at UNI and finish at ISU Red. The woman are 0-15 and finish at home against ISU Blue, ISU Red and BU. Going back 20 years the woman have had 0-18 happen twice, SIU in 10-11 and Evansville in 17-18. It's been over 20 years since a men's team went 0-18 and Drake did it in back to back years, 96-97 & 97-98. They actually went 41 straight games without a Valley win from February 19, 1996 to January 9, 1999. ISU Blue was 0-16 in 88-89 and SIU was 0-16 in 80-81.