How Will The End of "ONE AND DONE" Reshape College Basketball ? - Expected to start in 2022

[Go_Braves]

Interesting article provided below. I do not believe after reading this article that college basketball will really change that much beginning in 2022. Oh sure new prodigy players similar to Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and more recently Zion Williamson may never play a college game - but other extreme players similar to Duke's current freshmen Barrett and Reddish will likely play their freshmen year and then be gone. So in my view the one and done is "not" over beginning in 2022 - it will just look different. To me what would really end the one and done is that the NBA can not draft anyone until they are 21. (or at least 20).


How Will The End of "ONE AND DONE" Reshape College Basketball

https://www.ozy.com/the-huddle/how-w...ge-hoops/93342

Why you should care:
College basketball coaches and analysts are increasingly preparing for high school stars turning pro too early for their own — and the game’s — good.

The colossus that is Duke’s Zion Williamson captivated college basketball this season, so much so that he became his own reality show with a “Zion Cam,” a dedicated camera focused on his every move on the court. But the daily dissection of the 6-foot-7 Williamson has started an early grieving in the college game.

The one-and-done era will likely end in 2022, when the NBA is expected to allow 18-year-olds to jump from high school right into the showtime of the NBA. Will the new none-and-dones rob the college game of ever seeing another Zion, just like it missed out on Kobe Bryant and LeBron James? Perhaps, but the reshaping of the game goes much deeper — and doesn’t simply mean a return to pre-2005 hoops, when the NBA’s 19-year-old age restriction debuted.

Most expect future college basketball to look more like Duke’s Atlantic Coast Conference rival Virginia — the far less heralded No. 1 seed that starts four upperclassmen and shared the arena with the Blue Devils during last weekend’s opening rounds in Columbia, South Carolina. The Cavaliers have won just as many games over the past four years as Duke, but there is no “Kyle Guy Cam” for Virginia’s sharp-shooting guard. And in Pennsylvania, Villanova’s philosophy of “get old, stay old” in recruiting players who wait their turn to play as juniors earned the Wildcats national championships in 2016 and 2018.

/**** refer to the actual article for the rest ***/

[Da Coach]

I differ a little. I think more than the few top elite players, will skip college altogether. That could leave fewer stars for the top schools to recruit, so they will dig deeper into the pool of available recruits each year, leaving fewer for mid-major schools to get. Players like Elijah Childs will end up at bigger schools than Bradley And likewise, the low-majors will have less of the talent pool to recruit. Probably there will be even fewer mid-majors that will get at-large bids. I think we could see an even larger divide between the Power 6 schools and the rest of Division I. Look for more schools to recruit foreign kids, junior college kids, and other under-the-radar kids.

[egib52]

I differ a little. I think more than the few top elite players, will skip college altogether. That could leave fewer stars for the top schools to recruit, so they will dig deeper into the pool of available recruits each year, leaving fewer for mid-major schools to get. Players like Elijah Childs will end up at bigger schools than Bradley And likewise, the low-majors will have less of the talent pool to recruit. Probably there will be even fewer mid-majors that will get at-large bids. I think we could see an even larger divide between the Power 6 schools and the rest of Division I. Look for more schools to recruit foreign kids, junior college kids, and other under-the-radar kids.

I agree with DC. I also think development will be an even bigger deal for mid-majors. However, it will be a double edged sword because if they develop players well enough they will leave for P5.

[Stryker]

I differ a little. I think more than the few top elite players, will skip college altogether. That could leave fewer stars for the top schools to recruit, so they will dig deeper into the pool of available recruits each year, leaving fewer for mid-major schools to get. Players like Elijah Childs will end up at bigger schools than Bradley And likewise, the low-majors will have less of the talent pool to recruit. Probably there will be even fewer mid-majors that will get at-large bids. I think we could see an even larger divide between the Power 6 schools and the rest of Division I. Look for more schools to recruit foreign kids, junior college kids, and other under-the-radar kids.

I tend to agree with this theory. Duke, Kentucky, UNC, and Kansas will return to taking the top 3-4 year players as many kids will just jump to the draft as 18 yr olds. Look how these one and done kids are already treated by handlers etc.

Add in the continued growth of the overseas pro basketball scene and the NBA G-League starting to offer higher and higher salaries and become more of a minor-league system, I believe the top kids will be declaring for the draft in large numbers. If they fail to get drafted they will go play pro overseas or jump in the G League hoping to get an NBA contract after proving themselves there. Might as well get paid right?

There will be plenty of people telling these kids to do this too.

The end result will be a diluted talent pool available for the college sport. It will likely have a larger impact the first couple years and then even out. The players going to say Kentucky May only play 2 years and then be good enough to get drafted. It’s nots like they will all be staying there 4 years. And if they do, there won’t be scholarships available for the top freshmen etc.

So my prediction is that initially it will hurt the college game but after 2-3 years it will even out, the blue blood teams won’t have roster room for all the new top freshmen every year, and kids will start to see the guys who made mistakes before them going for the draft. The wild cards will be how the G League evolves and other opportunities for pro play.

[tornado]

the pool of talent among 18 year olds is way larger than in the past...and the fact that maybe the top dozen or fewer kids - kids like Zion Williamson - might soon just bypass college - probably won't have a big impact for midmajors. The very best midmajors like Loyola had last year and Bradley or Wofford or Buffalo had this year - are all kids that the Power Conferences would bypass.

[Da Coach]

But IMO, it will be more than just "maybe the top dozen or fewer kids" who will forego college. First, there are lots of high school kids who think they are NBA-level talent, but who aren't. There are a ton of those types who will be deluded to believe this will be a shortcut to playing pro. And even if they never get drafted by the NBA, they will either get offers to join NBA summer league teams, attend preseason tryout camps, or get signed to play in the G-League or the other lower level pro leagues that have already popped up, which will give even the high schoolers with modest talent options to play for pay. And even if some never get interest by the NBA or G-League, it will give every one of those kids a publicity boost, and they will get seen by US agents and foreign agents who will entice them to sign with them and help them get pro offers overseas or somewhere. And even if they don't have the talent to make a pro roster, by hiring agents, they negate any chance of a college scholarship. It will hurt the non-Power 6 schools, and junior colleges, too. Many of those kids, even the 4-star and 3-star kids don't care about college. They just want to be paid to play basketball somewhere, and this rule change opens the door to lots more options for them to avoid the college routes.

[OhRotanes]

Do potential NBA draft prospects get an assessment before hand that tells them what round they may go in? Or am I thinking of the NFL? Just thinking if a prospect gets told ahead of time they might be a 2nd round pick or a undrafted free agent if they would choose to go to college instead.

[Da Coach]

Do potential NBA draft prospects get an assessment before hand that tells them what round they may go in? Or am I thinking of the NFL? Just thinking if a prospect gets told ahead of time they might be a 2nd round pick or a undrafted free agent if they would choose to go to college instead.

Yes, they do. There are several ways they can be evaluated and get pre-draft advice from experts. They can work out privately for any number of pro scouts or private expert evaluators and get multiple opinions. If they don't get very good news about their draft prospects, they have a deadline they can withdraw by and still return to college (as long as they haven't signed with an agent).
Or they can attend the official NBA Pre-draft Combine and the NBA will evaluate them in many different ways, and every NBA team's executives and coaches attend the Combine.
Plus, there are several official NBA Pre-draft camps like the Portsmouth Invitational, Chicago Pre-draft Camp, and another one in Orlando where they will be divided into teams and play against other NBA prospects and be evaluated by NBA teams.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portsm...nal_Tournament