Strength of MVC

[Da Coach]

With less than a month left in the season, the MVC has settled into 14th ranked RPI among conferences-
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencerpi

That is the lowest in many years. In the new NCAA metric, the NET, the MVC is even lower at #15.
Here are the NET rankings for each MVC team-

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conference/Missouri-

Obviously, there will be no at-large bids this season, and whoever the auto-bid goes to could receive a seed as low as 12 or 13.
Note that there are no teams ranked in the top 100 as of now. I do not believe there has ever been a season that the MVC did not have a single team in the top 100, and almost always the MVC has had multiple top 100 teams. The highest ranked MVC team now is Loyola at 125.
By comparison, in the 2006-07 season, 9 of the MVC teams ranked inside the top 100 (only ISU was outside the top 90!) and all 10 were ranked inside the top 103 teams in D1.
How far the MVC has fallen!
2006-07 RPI rankings- http://realtimerpi.com/2006-2007/rpi_mvc_Men.html

[PhiAlphaBoy]

So the question that needs to be asked is why? Why have conferences like the Ivy, Southern, MAC, Conference USA and others leapfrogged the MVC over the past several years? Why has the MVC been trending down over the past several years? Was Creighton that important, because the league began trending down after they left and has only gotten worse since Wichita's departure. Did those schools see the writing on the wall and bolt just in the nick of time, as their iron was hot? It's sad to see Bradley stuck in a rut for the better part of the past quarter century, especially with the large amount of money spent on men's basketball. And Bradley's demise coincides with Peoria's (and Illinois') demise as well. Sad. I fear that both are destined to die a slow and painful death together.

[Vent]

So the question that needs to be asked is why? Why have conferences like the Ivy, Southern, MAC, Conference USA and others leapfrogged the MVC over the past several years? Why has the MVC been trending down over the past several years? Was Creighton that important, because the league began trending down after they left and has only gotten worse since Wichita's departure. Did those schools see the writing on the wall and bolt just in the nick of time, as their iron was hot? It's sad to see Bradley stuck in a rut for the better part of the past quarter century, especially with the large amount of money spent on men's basketball. And Bradley's demise coincides with Peoria's (and Illinois') demise as well. Sad. I fear that both are destined to die a slow and painful death together.

The reason the MVC has dropped to being just another mid major conference has been developing over the last 15 years or so. Let’s face it, in the time frame the only schools that were consistently in the top three of the league were Wichita, Creighton and Northern Iowa. The rest of the schools have been unable to match what these three schools have done, year in year out, during that time frame. The strength of these three teams was enough to elevate the MVC as a whole, over other mid majors. Losing two of these schools, to better conferences, has taken away the counterbalance for the rest of the league. The trending now appears to be that there may be three layers of mid majors. The top would consist of the A-10, Colonial, Mountain West and perhaps another. The middle would be the MVC, OVC, MAC and perhaps another couple. The bottom would consist of the MEAC, SWAC and a few others. This may be the new norm of the mid majors.

[tornado]

another strong factor is the DRAW of the big stage - and offers from big schools that are actually aiming too high - plus recent NCAA actions allowing the big school, in power-5 conferences, to give the kids so much more- stipends, meals, perks, etc...

We often see that decent MVC-caliber kids would still rather go sit on the bench and be an afterthought at a Big Ten program, than to come to Bradley.... or solid midmajor kids use the grad transfer route and are gone and leave their weakened MVC teams behind.
How many Freddie McSwain, Nick Freundt, Jershon Cobb, Bill Cole, Ahmad Starks, Devan Bawinkel, Te'Jon Lucas, Andy VanVliet, Akeem Springs, and others would have had great careers at the mid-major level but now hardly anyone even recognizes their names...

[Chibearsfan10125]

While it doesn’t explain entirely why other smaller conferences have passed the MVC, I think the reason we see so many players go to higher levels than they should is because of the one and done and transfer culture. So many big schools have 6 or more scholarships opening up every year because of underclassmen leaving early, so the big time high school recruits are all going to the power conference schools. If every power conference school had just one more player who could return come back, that would mean there would be almost 75 less players going to those schools that could be big time contributors at the mid-major level. I think that’s why we see more projects coming to the MVC schools than we used to. That is part of the reason I think mid major schools should embrace transfers coming in. Most transfers coming in are guys who probably should’ve picked a mid major in the first place.

[PhiAlphaBoy]

Great and thoughtful answers. Thank you guys!

[tornado]

The MVC being down this year does have some inexplicable aspect to it....a number of observers have noticed it and been stumped...
I am not sure anyone actually has a convincing answer....seems like a half the losses the MVC has to other conference teams are games they should have won.

Injuries and other roster issues possibly play some part - but every team in the MVC has some truly strange losses -
Bradley lost their first 5 in the MVC despite not one being against any of the top 3 preseason picks.
ISU getting clobbered by UIC, UCF, Bradley & Valpo
Loyola's loss at home to Ball State and scoring in the 40's three times and even only 35 pts - to teams they should have beaten
and nobody thought SIU, UNI & Bradley (preseason 3rd, 4th & 5th) would all be much closer to the bottom of the MVC than the top - and all within a game of 10th place

I noted elsewhere how this year in the MVC so many starters & key subs are transfers & juco kids...maybe that's more of an issue that appears on the surface?
Maybe it messes with team chemistry or generates jealousy? Look at the Obediah Church situation - obviously
he was not pleased that some transfer kid who was supposed to sit out a year - then suddenly gets eligible and instantly snarfs up all his playing time.
His displeasure led to him walking off the team.
And with so many new players on almost every team, perhaps it just takes a while before they feel comfortable and play within the coach's system (altho that doesn't explain Bradley or SIU who have almost all returnees).
At ISU, I think they have too many guys that want to be the guy and take a ton of shots - UNI is sorta the same way with a freshman point guard taking so many shots and not distributing the ball. If a team relies that much on a couple players, then they'd better be on every night.

[tornado]

Here's something that already kinda has me ticked but I also accept that it is probably going to get worse...

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has his brand new predictions of who will be in the NCAA 68-team field - http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
He has only one MVC team - Loyola- a 15-seed,
BUT he has NINE Big Ten teams!!!!
Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland (6-seed), Wisconsin (5-seed), Iowa (6-seed), Ohio St. (9-seed), Minnesota (12-seed), Indiana (13-seed)

Indiana is 4-9 in the Big Ten , has lost NINE of their last 10 - even losing to Rutgers & Northwestern! Illinois just beat Michigan State, Maryland & Ohio State.
Minnesota's NET is about 60 but they are NOT good - they are 1-7 on the road & have lost 4 in a row...

This new NET system is so biased in favor of the big schools because it factors in the schedule of your opponents and of course the big schools play so many more games against better opponents even if they lose consistently to them and end up at the bottom of their conference.

[egib52]

Indiana is 4-9 in the Big Ten , has lost NINE of their last 10 - even losing to Rutgers & Northwestern! Illinois just beat Michigan State, Maryland & Ohio State.

I agree that this NET system will just push more mid-majors out of the tournament. Indiana definitely was the one that pissed me off the most after I heard his belief that they would get in. I personally think they will be out. It is just so frustrating that most of the country loved Loyola's run to the FF, but the people in control didn't like the P5 losing out on the $$$$.

[tornado]

Believe or not there's still people saying Indiana would deserve an at large bid...
even tho today they got pummeled by Minnesota 84-63 - they were down double digits only 8 minutes in and were down 20 early in the 2nd half.
Indiana has now lost 10 of their last 11 and have won only once since January 3rd!
Meanwhile Drake is putting together a very solid year - but the pundits would laugh if anyone suggest they get an at-large bid.

[Da Coach]

Prior to today's loss, Joe Lunardi, ESPN's bracketologist, had Indiana as a #13 seed and playing in the First Four round despite their 4-9 Big Ten record-

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

But now after losing to Minnesota and dropping to 4-10, they should drop out of the bracket, but who knows. I would think the NCAA and th Big Ten would be embarrassed to see a team with a 4-10 record being projected to make it into the NCAA Tournament

[Go_Braves]

Prior to today's loss, Joe Lunardi, ESPN's bracketologist, had Indiana as a #13 seed and playing in the First Four round despite their 4-9 Big Ten record-
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

But now after losing to Minnesota and dropping to 4-10, they should drop out of the bracket, but who knows. I would think the NCAA and th Big Ten would be embarrassed to see a team with a 4-10 record being projected to make it into the NCAA Tournament

Bradley's Athletic Director (Chris Reynolds) is a Indiana Alum and ex-Player and he is now a member of the NCAA selection committee. We may never know of any tournament decisions by AD Reynolds but he will soon be in a maze of difficult decisions for the tournament. Just like Wichita State backed into the NCAA tournament a couple of years ago (as a last 2 pick in a field of 68 - I wonder if Loyola could "back into" the NCAA tournament this year due to their Cinderella run last year and the Media's love of Sister Jean - only if they loose in the Arch Madness extremely close final.

[Da Coach]

As of today, Loyola's NET rank is 122. With every other MVC team ranked even lower, IMO it is virtually impossible for Loyola to improve enough to be an at-large consideration. While the RPI was in use, the worst RPI team to ever get an at-large bid was Syracuse in 2016 with an RPI of 70, and no mid-major ever got an at-large bid with an RPI over 40.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...issouri-Valley

[Da Coach]

ESPN's Joe Lunardi is out with the latest update of his NCAA Tournament bracket projection-

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

He projects only one MVC team in the tournament- Loyola at a #15 seed. But he has 9 ACC teams, 8 SEC teams, 8 Big Ten teams, and 8 Big 12 teams!
So 33 of the 68 teams, almost half, come from just 4 conferences (out of 32 conferences). The NET has accomplished what they wanted.
The MVC ranks 15th in conference NET-

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencenet

And no MVC teams has an NET better than 128-

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conference/Missouri-Valley

[Go_Braves]

While it doesn’t explain entirely why other smaller conferences have passed the MVC, I think the reason we see so many players go to higher levels than they should is because of the one and done and transfer culture. So many big schools have 6 or more scholarships opening up every year because of underclassmen leaving early, so the big time high school recruits are all going to the power conference schools. If every power conference school had just one more player who could return come back, that would mean there would be almost 75 less players going to those schools that could be big time contributors at the mid-major level. I think that’s why we see more projects coming to the MVC schools than we used to. That is part of the reason I think mid major schools should embrace transfers coming in. Most transfers coming in are guys who probably should’ve picked a mid major in the first place.

I agree with you Chibearsfan10125 that the "one and done and transfer culture" is a very key reason all mid-majors are not able to recruit better players as well as the excessive budget these power conference schools athletic departments have at their disposal compared to the mid-major schools.

Some of the behind the scenes key reasons that made last year's Loyola Cinderella run so special. A small school, small budget, no highly recruited players winning against all odds. Once the Sweet 16, or Elite 8, or Final 4 are made up of nothing more than Power 5 conference teams - I quit watching the NCAA tournament. Ho - Hum - another Duke victory with their 287 lb 6'7" freshman who is going to make millions in the NBA. FYI - I don't even watch the NBA.