More bubble trouble for the Valley thanks to George Mason!

[Bravesfan]

George Mason is just 3 minutes away from taking out Old Dominion in the Colonial Athletic Confernce semifinals. They will meet VCU in the finals.

Here's the scenerio: A win tomorrow by George Mason should give an at-large bid to VCU. A win by VCU probably gives ODU an at-large. Hofstra's profile was the weakest of the top four teams, and they were eliminated yesterday anyway by losing in the quarterfinals.

That leaves Drexel, who finished fourth in the Colonial. They have wins against Villanova and Syracuse on neutral courts, and a win at Creighton in the Bracketbuster. However, they got swept by second place ODU and first place VCU. Since second place ODU beat Georgetown, split against VCU and swept Drexel, that along with their 33 RPI (versus Drexel's 46 RPI) and second place finish gives ODU the advantage. Plus ODU is 4-3 vs the RPI top 50 against Drexel's 2-4 record (both are 6-6 against the RPI top 100).

My question is this: Does ODU get a third Colonial bid if VCU loses and George Mason gets the automatic bid? I think they have a great case, and that can spell big trouble for Missouri St. and especially Bradley. Thoughts?

[MacabreMob]

ODU has a very nice profile. They have a great win AT Georgetown and a very ugly loss at #300 James Madison. They had won 12 straight going into that loss to G Mason.

I say ODU gets an at-large. Who it affects remains to be seen.

What kills me about bubble talk - it always seems to affect the MVC... never the 8th team in the ACC or 8th in the BigEast.

[IlliBraves]

This worries me, but I thought Drexel losing to VCU may have hurt us even more because they have a very good resume. If VCU would have lost, we would one-up VCU by virture of beating them on the road. The CAA was going to be a 2-bid league anyway. But now, we are in some serious trouble. Let's say VCU beats GMU. What does that leave us? VCU gets the auto-bid, but there are still 2 teams with at-large cases. If 3 teams get bids out of the CAA, there's no way the Valley will get 4 bids. This is unfortunate because I think we played a much tougher schedule than many of these teams, especially VCU.

[MacabreMob]

A G Mason win over VCU is very bad - very bad.

Another reason to root for VCU is (just now at realtimerpi, VCU is 48 ) they could be a Top50 RPI Road Win for us.

Plus, the committee likes conference winners with decent RPI's (like VCU's - so long as they are in the top 70).

So VCU is IN. I like ODU as an at-large.

I think Drexel got eliminated.

Colonial (IMO) is now a 2 bid league unless G Mason wins... then they have a VERY STRONG case for 3 bids.

But if they can be a 2 bid league with a VCU win (ODU at-large), it helps not only the 8th best in the BigEast and ACC but also the MVC.

[Bravesfan]

A G Mason win over VCU is very bad - very bad.

Another reason to root for VCU is (just now at realtimerpi, VCU is 48 ) they could be a Top50 RPI Road Win for us.

Plus, the committee likes conference winners with decent RPI's (like VCU's - so long as they are in the top 70).

So VCU is IN. I like ODU as an at-large.

I think Drexel got eliminated.

Colonial (IMO) is now a 2 bid league unless G Mason wins... then they have a VERY STRONG case for 3 bids.

But if they can be a 2 bid league with a VCU win (ODU at-large), it helps not only the 8th best in the BigEast and ACC but also the MVC.

Oh yeah. I'm definately rooting for VCU in this game too! But George Mason will not be an easy out.