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It's time to import by fine projections from That Other Site 
for some debate. I won't copy all that stuff I post over on That Other Site , but one thing I will copy is my S-curve:
(if there is more interest I'll do some full-blown stuff here over the final couple of weeks)
So you can see about where Bradley stands.
So, what do we need to root for?
1) We need every available spot. Conference leaders such as Memphis, Nevada, Xavier, and Winthrop need to win. Gonzaga, Appalachian St, and Old Dominion as well, to a lesser extent.
2) Teams like Kansas St and Syracuse are manufacturing good conference records. We need them to fall back in the standings.
3) Every early round upset in BCS conference tournaments help.
4) As you can see, there's a lot of midmajors just off the bubble pace. We have no bad losses to bottom teams in our conference. These other guys do. Root for more of those to help us out.
Bottom line: Beating UNI and losing to SIU probably won't do it, barring a miracle. However, we'll shoot up if we beat SIU.
As for the MVC.....conference records will be valued. In a conference as highly rated as the MVC, 13-5 and 12-6 are too good to ignore. We solidly have 3 bids, so don't worry.
for some debate. I won't copy all that stuff I post over on That Other Site , but one thing I will copy is my S-curve:(if there is more interest I'll do some full-blown stuff here over the final couple of weeks)
1 - UCLA (24-3), Ohio St (26-3), Florida (25-4), North Carolina (24-5)
The #1s are more fluid than most years. Only UCLA seems safe, thanks to their computer #s. UNC can thank the computers too.
2 - Wisconsin (26-4), Texas A&M (24-4), Kansas (25-4), Georgetown (22-5)
The Big 12 teams are really getting hurt by the status of the league. I don't think either can get to a 1. G'town can, though, given their run.
3 - Pittsburgh (24-5), Southern Illinois (24-5), Washington St (23-5), Memphis (25-3)
Blame G'town for SIU not being a 2. I still think they can get there, though. Memphis can thank CUSA for being at their peak position, IMO.
4 - Virginia Tech (19-8 ), Vanderbilt (18-9), Nevada (25-2), Boston College (19-9)
Terrible SoS for Nevada is costing them. For the other 3.....high status in their leagues have risen them above the abyss that is the 5-8 seeds. As bad as losses as VT has....they have some real wins to hang their hat on.
5 - Louisville (20-8 ), Kentucky (19-9), Butler (24-5), Duke (22-7)
Kentucky and Duke seem high until you realize their computer numbers. And every small detail helps, because, trust me, this is a very bunched group of teams. You can ride the hot wave like Louisville, who has gone from "last 4 out" to a 5 seed in 2 weeks.
6 - Texas (21-7), BYU (20-7), Air Force (22-6), USC (21-8 )
Great conference records continue to be a theme. BYU could've gotten all the way to a 4 seed had they beaten SDSU.
7 - Virginia (18-8 ), Michigan St (21-8 ), UNLV (22-6), Arizona (18-9)
A wild mess of teams.
8 - Maryland (22-7), Tennessee (20-9), Notre Dame (22-6), Indiana (18-9)
A costly bad run for Indiana. Maryland is now safe. Digger rejoices as well.
9 - Marquette (21-8 ), Oregon (22-7), Creighton (19-10), Stanford (17-10)
Another theme - teams on the downfall can get passed up, and in a hurry, thanks to the bunched nature of the S-Curve. These 4 have lost a lot of ground in a hurry thanks to losing streaks.
--cutline for relative safeness---. The teams above here should feel pretty comfortable, barring a complete and utter collapse. Everyone below has plenty of worries.
10 - Xavier (21-7), Missouri St (20-9), Villanova (18-9), West Virginia (19-7)
The Big East won't finish with 8 teams, so get to work, Nova and WVU. Win your quarterfinal game, Barry.
11 - VCU (24-6), Old Dominion (23-7), Illinois (21-9), Winthrop (21-4)
Winning your conference means something. VCU and Winthrop will be rewarded. ODU is as hot as any team in the country. And Illinois, well that's been well-discussed here.
12 - Texas Tech (18-11), Georgia (16-10), Kansas St (20-9), Syracuse (20-9)
In the end, I chose to reward a good standing in conference play.
13 - Gonzaga (20-10), Davidson (24-4), Holy Cross (22-8 ), Vermont (23-6)
Gonzaga and Davidson are in the conversation for an at-large berth. More below.
14 - Sam Houston St (17-8 ), Toledo (16-11), Long Beach St (18-7), Pennsylvania (18-8 )
15 - Oral Roberts (19-10), Marist (23-7), South Alabama (18-10), East Tennessee St (20-8 )
16 - Delaware St (16-11), Austin Peay (17-10), Weber St (15-10), Central Connecticut St (18-11), Mississippi Valley St (14-14)
Next 4 in:
VCU (if needed)
Old Dominion
Illinois
Winthrop (if needed)
Last 4 in:
Texas Tech
Georgia
Kansas St
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
Purdue (18-10)
Alabama (19-9)
Drexel (21-7)
Georgia Tech (18-10)
Next 4 out:
San Diego St (18-8 )
Gonzaga (if needed, currently in as autobid)
Appalachian St (21-6)
Davidson (if needed, currently in as autobid)
Next 4 out:
Michigan (19-10)
Bradley (19-11)
Clemson (19-9)
Florida St (18-11)
And this is my cutoff for serious at-large contention. Note the word SERIOUS.
Teams on the fringe (they can still get in, but it's time to do a bunch of winning out to the tournament finals):
Mississippi (18-10)
Mississippi St (16-11)
Iowa (16-12)
Providence (17-10)
DePaul (16-12)
Oklahoma St (18-9) (win a freaking road game, for God's sake)
New Mexico St (20-7)
Hofstra (21-8 )
Massachusetts (21-7)
The #1s are more fluid than most years. Only UCLA seems safe, thanks to their computer #s. UNC can thank the computers too.
2 - Wisconsin (26-4), Texas A&M (24-4), Kansas (25-4), Georgetown (22-5)
The Big 12 teams are really getting hurt by the status of the league. I don't think either can get to a 1. G'town can, though, given their run.
3 - Pittsburgh (24-5), Southern Illinois (24-5), Washington St (23-5), Memphis (25-3)
Blame G'town for SIU not being a 2. I still think they can get there, though. Memphis can thank CUSA for being at their peak position, IMO.
4 - Virginia Tech (19-8 ), Vanderbilt (18-9), Nevada (25-2), Boston College (19-9)
Terrible SoS for Nevada is costing them. For the other 3.....high status in their leagues have risen them above the abyss that is the 5-8 seeds. As bad as losses as VT has....they have some real wins to hang their hat on.
5 - Louisville (20-8 ), Kentucky (19-9), Butler (24-5), Duke (22-7)
Kentucky and Duke seem high until you realize their computer numbers. And every small detail helps, because, trust me, this is a very bunched group of teams. You can ride the hot wave like Louisville, who has gone from "last 4 out" to a 5 seed in 2 weeks.
6 - Texas (21-7), BYU (20-7), Air Force (22-6), USC (21-8 )
Great conference records continue to be a theme. BYU could've gotten all the way to a 4 seed had they beaten SDSU.
7 - Virginia (18-8 ), Michigan St (21-8 ), UNLV (22-6), Arizona (18-9)
A wild mess of teams.
8 - Maryland (22-7), Tennessee (20-9), Notre Dame (22-6), Indiana (18-9)
A costly bad run for Indiana. Maryland is now safe. Digger rejoices as well.
9 - Marquette (21-8 ), Oregon (22-7), Creighton (19-10), Stanford (17-10)
Another theme - teams on the downfall can get passed up, and in a hurry, thanks to the bunched nature of the S-Curve. These 4 have lost a lot of ground in a hurry thanks to losing streaks.
--cutline for relative safeness---. The teams above here should feel pretty comfortable, barring a complete and utter collapse. Everyone below has plenty of worries.
10 - Xavier (21-7), Missouri St (20-9), Villanova (18-9), West Virginia (19-7)
The Big East won't finish with 8 teams, so get to work, Nova and WVU. Win your quarterfinal game, Barry.
11 - VCU (24-6), Old Dominion (23-7), Illinois (21-9), Winthrop (21-4)
Winning your conference means something. VCU and Winthrop will be rewarded. ODU is as hot as any team in the country. And Illinois, well that's been well-discussed here.
12 - Texas Tech (18-11), Georgia (16-10), Kansas St (20-9), Syracuse (20-9)
In the end, I chose to reward a good standing in conference play.
13 - Gonzaga (20-10), Davidson (24-4), Holy Cross (22-8 ), Vermont (23-6)
Gonzaga and Davidson are in the conversation for an at-large berth. More below.
14 - Sam Houston St (17-8 ), Toledo (16-11), Long Beach St (18-7), Pennsylvania (18-8 )
15 - Oral Roberts (19-10), Marist (23-7), South Alabama (18-10), East Tennessee St (20-8 )
16 - Delaware St (16-11), Austin Peay (17-10), Weber St (15-10), Central Connecticut St (18-11), Mississippi Valley St (14-14)
Next 4 in:
VCU (if needed)
Old Dominion
Illinois
Winthrop (if needed)
Last 4 in:
Texas Tech
Georgia
Kansas St
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
Purdue (18-10)
Alabama (19-9)
Drexel (21-7)
Georgia Tech (18-10)
Next 4 out:
San Diego St (18-8 )
Gonzaga (if needed, currently in as autobid)
Appalachian St (21-6)
Davidson (if needed, currently in as autobid)
Next 4 out:
Michigan (19-10)
Bradley (19-11)
Clemson (19-9)
Florida St (18-11)
And this is my cutoff for serious at-large contention. Note the word SERIOUS.
Teams on the fringe (they can still get in, but it's time to do a bunch of winning out to the tournament finals):
Mississippi (18-10)
Mississippi St (16-11)
Iowa (16-12)
Providence (17-10)
DePaul (16-12)
Oklahoma St (18-9) (win a freaking road game, for God's sake)
New Mexico St (20-7)
Hofstra (21-8 )
Massachusetts (21-7)
So, what do we need to root for?
1) We need every available spot. Conference leaders such as Memphis, Nevada, Xavier, and Winthrop need to win. Gonzaga, Appalachian St, and Old Dominion as well, to a lesser extent.
2) Teams like Kansas St and Syracuse are manufacturing good conference records. We need them to fall back in the standings.
3) Every early round upset in BCS conference tournaments help.
4) As you can see, there's a lot of midmajors just off the bubble pace. We have no bad losses to bottom teams in our conference. These other guys do. Root for more of those to help us out.
Bottom line: Beating UNI and losing to SIU probably won't do it, barring a miracle. However, we'll shoot up if we beat SIU.
As for the MVC.....conference records will be valued. In a conference as highly rated as the MVC, 13-5 and 12-6 are too good to ignore. We solidly have 3 bids, so don't worry.
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