NCAA: Project who's in and who's out

[MacabreMob]

Based on JPalm's Projected RPI (and records).

This does NOT include Conference Tourney games.

Teams with questionable RPI's and/or Conference records:

projected RPI - team - projected overall record - conference - projected conf record

12 Tennessee 21-10 SEC 9-7
19 Duke 21-10 ACC 7-9
25 Florida St 21-9 ACC 9-7
27 Clemson 23-7 ACC 9-7
33 Alabama 21-9 SEC 8-8
34 Oregon 23-7 P10 11-7
35 Maryland 21-10 ACC 7-9
37 Michigan St 20-11 B10 7-9
39 Illinois 21-10 B10 9-7
42 Arkansas 19-11 SEC 8-8
45 West Virginia 20-8 BE 9-7
48 Purdue 20-10 B10 9-7
51 Georgia 17-11 SEC 9-7
52 Southern California 21-10 P10 11-7
53 Texas Tech 19-12 B12 8-8
56 Stanford 18-11 P10 10-8
58 Mississippi 19-11 SEC 8-8
61 Syracuse 19-11 BE 8-8
65 Vanderbilt 17-12 SEC 8-8

Now consider Bubble teams as maybe OUT if they don't win their Conference Tourney:

36 Drexel 21-7 Colonial 14-4
40 Xavier 22-8 A10 12-4
43 Dayton 20-9 A10 10-6
46 VCU 25-5 Colonial 16-2
49 Old Dominion 22-8 Colonial 15-3
54 Gonzaga 22-9 WCC 12-2
59 Massachusetts 22-8 A10 12-4

And here is the short list of those most likely OUT unless they win their conference tourney:

38 Bradley 19-11 MVC 11-7
47 San Diego St 20-8 MWC 11-5
57 Houston 18-12 CUSA 11-5

[CLBravesfan]

I really have a hard time understanding how a team who does not have a winning record in their own conference (regardles of which conference they are located in) can be considered for the NCAA tourney.

I say if you can't win more the half your conference games you should not be considered, but looks like Duke, Alabama, Texas Tech all could sneak in with less than or = to a .500 record.

[MacabreMob]

Remember, this is just PROJECTED records based on current RPI's and then the RPI is figured out to PROJECT a final RPI.

From this info, here is the list of teams in question (and you can thank BCS conferences going to their floating rotations for schedules to create so many questions and parity... I think it is all by design):

12 Tennessee 21-10 SEC 9-7
19 Duke 21-10 ACC 7-9
25 Florida St 21-9 ACC 9-7
27 Clemson 23-7 ACC 9-7
33 Alabama 21-9 SEC 8-8
35 Maryland 21-10 ACC 7-9
37 Michigan St 20-11 B10 7-9
39 Illinois 21-10 B10 9-7
42 Arkansas 19-11 SEC 8-8
45 West Virginia 20-8 BE 9-7
48 Purdue 20-10 B10 9-7
51 Georgia 17-11 SEC 9-7
53 Texas Tech 19-12 B12 8-8
58 Mississippi 19-11 SEC 8-8
61 Syracuse 19-11 BE 8-8
65 Vanderbilt 17-12 SEC 8-8

[tornado]

The NCAA now has their own official RPI's listed

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2007MBBrpi1.html

The new one will be out today.

[MacabreMob]

The NCAA now has their own official RPI's listed

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2007MBBrpi1.html

The new one will be out today.

Thanks T. Since JPalm has to help the NCAA determine home floors correctly, I stick with Palm til the very end. Here is what Palm had to say about the NCAA's RPI:

"If you check the official RPI on the NCAA website, you will notice several discrepancies between my data and theirs. That is not terribly unusual for this time of year. Often, the first release has numerous discrepancies and it takes the NCAA a while to get them all checked out, especially if the committee has to get involved in the decision, which sometimes happens.

The primary reason the discrepancies exist is that the NCAA relies on the schools to report scores and game locations, and they don't always follow the RPI location rules when doing so. Also, sometimes there is a delay in reporting scores, so some games end up missing from the report."

He goes on to say once the differences are sorted out, and after they both adjust their respective data, their reports should be in sync.