30% still pretty good

[Guest]

A few thoughts about the tourney projections relative to the MVC that have been coming out lately. My point is, in summary, that the kind of year the Valley teams are having (to this point) 3 bids is about right to me.

According to the projections right now, we have WSU, UNI, and us outside of the bubble. Can anyone really argue with that? WSU has a losing record in conference, UNI is sliding, and we are VERY short on quality wins. DePaul no longer counts as they're proving to be no good. SIU at home was a good one, but we've been swept by the other two projected tourney teams from the MVC. UNI has beaten Iowa and SIU which is good and all but they've lost 4 of their last 5.

I think our conference is great. The competitiveness 1-10 really is amazing. But we sure have a lot of NIT-quality teams. WSU, BU, and UNI certainly still have opportunities to climb back into it. Maybe even not at the expense of the top 3...especially if SIU can be knocked off as they're resume is pretty strong.

The bottom of our conference would whup the bottom teams of ANY other conference. Minny would trounced in the Valley this year (sorry Jim). Rutgers might not win a game. But in comparing the MVC to the B12, SEC, etc. you also have to concede that we do not (yet) have a Final Four contender among us. Maybe that's the big difference between the "BCS" and the MVC, MWC, CAA.

Back to the top, if the MVC can get 30% of its members into the Dance every year that's pretty darn good. The B10 might not get to that level (may only get 3 out of 11).

I'm the first to complain rightfully about the scheduling imbalances that negatively affect Valley teams. But take us for example. We got an injured U of I team on a neutral floor and coughed it up. The Spartans destroyed us. We're having trouble protecting our home court. That incident in Cookesville. I'm proud of our season and they way our team has played. Way beyond expectations. I just don't think its been a Dance-type season. Hopefully that will change. We should be thankful that we're close enough to the "Bubble" to have a chance to climb over it. Honestly, I'm not sure we deserve to be that close right now. Maybe we're not.

So yeah, 3 bids sounds right. As of right now.

I'd be curious as to anyone else's opinion. Thanks for letting me ramble.

[BUBraves06]

I agree with pretty much everything you said. Top-to-bottom our conference is very strong and there are quite a few major-conference programs that would struggle mightily in the MVC. As of right now, I think 3 teams will get in with a possibility of a fourth. There's still about 3 weeks 'til we all head to STL and there is still a lot of room for this team to improve. We have a real tough road ahead of us and unfortunately we blew a few oppurtunitites for big, profile-making wins. With that said Wednesday is another chance for a huge "big" win. It's not going to be easy by any stretch and the way we have played in Carbondale over the past few seasons certainly doesn't instill much confidence, but through all that, we've beat them once and I trust that at the very least we can go down there tomorrow and give them a game.

[MacabreMob]

Good comments V-Fan.

Something I would like to add... maybe a little off topic, but relative to us being tourney worthy.

Over the weekend, I looked at the teams in the Top50 RPI (on Sunday). I was looking for Out Of Conference Quality Wins and Any Bad Losses.

So I defined a Quality Win as one on the road (neutral wins are good too, but was curious to see who had OOC Road Wins).

I then defined a Bad Loss as a Home Loss to anyone outside of the Top 100 RPI, OOC and In-Conference... if you can't defend your home court against someone outside of the Top100 and you are in the Top 50... geesh.

Here they are...

Quality Wins:
North Carolina at Arizona
Wisconsin at Marquette
Wisconsin at Georgia
UNLV at Nevada
UNLV at Texas Tech
Air Force at Stanford
Oregon at Georgetown
Maryland at Illinois
Stanford at Virginia
Georgetown at Vandy
Gonzaga at Stanford
Notre Dame at Maryland

Bad Losses:
UNLV vs UCSB (146)
Marquette vs North Dakota St (11
Kansas vs ORU (105)
BC vs Duquesne (176)
Va Tech vs NC St (103)
Maryland vs Mia-Fl (162)
Vandy vs Furman (18
Providence vs Brown (241)

Now remember, those teams were in the Top50 RPI on Sunday. We were 49th, our worst loss at the time was at TennTech (142) and we had zero wins vs Top 50 RPI OOC.

[BTID]

SIU will be a tough nut to crack on its home floor. However, they lost unexpectedly to Indiana State last year (or was it Evansville?). One factor in our favor is that the Salukis just got ranked, so they may be pressing too much to prove they belong in the Top 25. Also, they have a big home match with Creighton Saturday, and they might get caught looking ahead. Another thread showed both teams' RPI's when they play in Carbondale. The team ranked higher has never lost in Carbondale in 13 years. Can the Salukis make that streak extend to 14?

Bradley's only hope of getting an at-large bid this year is to win out in its remaining 6 games, and pick up one or possibly two wins at the MVC Tournament. If we get matched up with Creighton or Missouri State and beat them, so much the better for us. Any loss in our final 6 contests means we have to win the whole shooting match in St. Louis, or we'll probably be NIT bound.

For now, the Valley is probably looking at 3 teams in the NCAA's. Southern Illinois and Creighton both look good, and Missouri State has gotten back on track. Barring a major collapse down the stretch, the Bears should get the bid most people thought they deserved last year. Depending on what happens elsewhere around the country, the Bears could get left out if they don't make the MVC title game at least.

[Scouter]

SIU will be a tough nut to crack on its home floor. However, they lost unexpectedly to Indiana State last year (or was it Evansville?).

You're correct. It was Indiana State.

[Braves4Life]

I say 4-2 (maybe 3-3) and two wins in MVC Tourney gets us in. The two MVC Tourney wins are an absolute must. Anything else and we're going to the NIT.

[thefish7]

I say 4-2 (maybe 3-3) and two wins in MVC Tourney gets us in. The two MVC Tourney wins are an absolute must. Anything else and we're going to the NIT.

Well I also think that if we went 6-0 and lost in the first round of the tourney we'd probably still be an NCAA team... That may even be true of a 5-1 result.

[MacabreMob]

3-3 is likely.

4-2 is possible.

5-1 is great!

6-0 is unbelievable!!

[BI_Brave_alum]

I think if we can win in carbondale or against VCU, either one will give us a late W on the road against a top 25 team like the braves did against uni last year and do well in the tourny 2 wins or so we got a good shot. of the home games, UNI will be a tough one but we can take them.

[tornado]

Re: 30% still pretty good

So yeah, 3 bids sounds right. As of right now.

I'd be curious as to anyone else's opinion. Thanks for letting me ramble.

You must be a cheap date, but you should be more demanding.

Last year the Valley got 4 bids and proved beyond question that those bids were worthy of being in the NCAA Tourney.

This year the Valley is even stronger top to bottom.

At least 6 of the Valley teams are among the top 64 teams in the nation. The Valley as a conference has hovered between 3rd and 5th in RPI all season, and recall that the RPI is the very formula that all the BCS boys devised to show how much their 2nd through 6th teams deserved NCAA bids ahead of the 2nd best guys in smaller conferences.

The Marylands and the talking heads don't want you to know this, but...........
The best 6 teams in the MVC have been routinely knocking off some of the BCS guys all year. Those teams belong in the NCAA.

The heck with this 3-bid argument, I think the MVC deserves 6 bids, but I'd be happy with 5.

[Chucky T's]

Re: 30% still pretty good

The heck with this 3-bid argument, I think the MVC deserves 6 bids, but I'd be happy with 5.

Wow Tornado....I wish you were on the selection committee....I think three or four MVC teams get in. I also think BU needs a minimum of five more wins to go dancin'. Tonights game would be a HUGE first step toward that goal. Let's beat the dogs and go on an NCAA run.

GO BRAVES!

[Braves4Life]

Opinions

Just reading all of the posters' opinions of what BU needs to do to get into the tournament brings to mind that famous Al Davis line: "JUST WIN BABY, WIN!"

[tornado]

I never said I actually believe the selection committee WILL give the Valley 5 or 6 bids.
I'd be quite surprised if they did, but I think there's better than a 50% chance of 4 MVC teams getting NCAA bids.

Here's a thought..
When BU won in Michigan, numerous stories occurred in papers all over the country detailing the incredible fan support, large fan following, and enthusiastic fans in the stands as compared to the dull, butt-in-their-seats crowds that Pitt & Kansas drew to the Auburn Palace.
I think the BU folks who were there impressed the right people, and in part that's why Bradley gets a decent opponent in the BracketBuster and the best Saturday night prime time slot for their game.

If the selection committee had to decide between let's say..
Bradley as a 4th (or maybe even the 5th) team in the MVC...or
Providence (avg. home attendance 7962) as the 6th best team in the Big East...or
Stanford (avg. home attendace 7012)as a 4-5th best team in the Pac 10.

Bradley outdraws all of those guys, and Bradley brings far more fans and far more enthusiastic fans with them to the venues for the tournament.

Now maybe you're a purist and believe they don't consider revenue issues when handing out bids......yeah right...

[abesimpson]

Personally, I think we are going to host an NIT game after a bye and the MVC will get 6 into postseason play again, either 4 NCAA - 2 NIT or 3-3.

But I wouldn't write us off from the big dance yet. Last year we finished 11-7 in the MVC and we are on pace for that again. We also haven't suffered a road loss to a basement team yet with only Evansville to go (knock on wood), and we played 5 teams from the BCS compared to last year's 1. Last year, we finished the regular season with 18 wins and this year I'd say we'll finish with 20.

IMO, Bradley has a better shot at the dance this season than it did last season.

[TheAsianSensation]

3 is nice, but I'd rather be greedy.