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With unbalanced schedules in all high-major conferences but the Pac-10, you can't definitively declare that a team must have a .500 record in conference play to be a viable at-large candidate, but it's still a pretty good benchmark -- one that teams like Maryland (2-5 ACC), Georgia Tech (2-6 ACC), Washington (3-6 Pac-10) and others may have a difficult time reaching.
From a conference standpoint, things are starting to become clearer in the Big Ten and Big 12 and have gotten increasingly muddled in the SEC. It also appears, at this stage, that there is a relatively weak crop of at-large candidates from outside the Big Six and The Valley. That could help teams like those listed above, especially if teams like Nevada, Air Force/UNLV, Memphis and Butler win their conferences' auto bids and leave more at-larges available.
Missouri Valley Conference
Locks: Southern Illinois
Teams that should be in: Creighton, Missouri State
Work left to do: Bradley, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Indiana State drops off the chase, leaving six Valley teams in the mix for three or four bids.
Should be in:
Creighton [14-7 (8-3), RPI: 35, SOS: 36] Huge win at MO State before handling the Sycamores at home leaves Creighton as the league's co-leader at 8-3, which is enough for a bump to the next level. Next three are all winnable, even though the first two are on the road. The Bluejays then close with four of six at home.
Missouri State [14-7 (6-5), RPI: 38, SOS: 21] Nothing's a lock in this league, but MO State really needs to try to get the next three (at Drake, at Indiana St., vs. Illinois St.) as the four after that are extremely difficult.
Work left to do:
Bradley [14-8 (6-5), RPI: 40, SOS: 22] Got expected split vs. Illinois State and at MO State. Schedule by Valley standards is very doable down the stretch. Getting to 10-8 (or better) might be enough, depending on what happens elsewhere. Fun BracketBusters meeting at VCU could be crucial. Right now, the season-opening 20-point W over DePaul is losing steam and the Braves lost by 29 at Michigan State.
Northern Iowa [14-6 (6-4), RPI: 56, SOS: 111] Got down big early and couldn't quite get over the hump and suffered a costly home loss to Wichita State Tuesday night. That's now three straight L's for a team that now has five of its next seven on the road, including a brutal BracketBusters date at Nevada. Panthers should start to be concerned.
Wichita State [13-8 (5-6), RPI: 61, SOS: 73] Enormous win at Northern Iowa Tuesday night gets the Shockers back to .500 in the Valley. Kyle Wilson's pure 3 at the shot-clock buzzer late in the game helped stave off a huge UNI rally and could be the shot that salvages the Shockers' season. Five of the next six are at home, starting with league big dog Southern Illinois.
From a conference standpoint, things are starting to become clearer in the Big Ten and Big 12 and have gotten increasingly muddled in the SEC. It also appears, at this stage, that there is a relatively weak crop of at-large candidates from outside the Big Six and The Valley. That could help teams like those listed above, especially if teams like Nevada, Air Force/UNLV, Memphis and Butler win their conferences' auto bids and leave more at-larges available.
Missouri Valley Conference
Locks: Southern Illinois
Teams that should be in: Creighton, Missouri State
Work left to do: Bradley, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Indiana State drops off the chase, leaving six Valley teams in the mix for three or four bids.
Should be in:
Creighton [14-7 (8-3), RPI: 35, SOS: 36] Huge win at MO State before handling the Sycamores at home leaves Creighton as the league's co-leader at 8-3, which is enough for a bump to the next level. Next three are all winnable, even though the first two are on the road. The Bluejays then close with four of six at home.
Missouri State [14-7 (6-5), RPI: 38, SOS: 21] Nothing's a lock in this league, but MO State really needs to try to get the next three (at Drake, at Indiana St., vs. Illinois St.) as the four after that are extremely difficult.
Work left to do:
Bradley [14-8 (6-5), RPI: 40, SOS: 22] Got expected split vs. Illinois State and at MO State. Schedule by Valley standards is very doable down the stretch. Getting to 10-8 (or better) might be enough, depending on what happens elsewhere. Fun BracketBusters meeting at VCU could be crucial. Right now, the season-opening 20-point W over DePaul is losing steam and the Braves lost by 29 at Michigan State.
Northern Iowa [14-6 (6-4), RPI: 56, SOS: 111] Got down big early and couldn't quite get over the hump and suffered a costly home loss to Wichita State Tuesday night. That's now three straight L's for a team that now has five of its next seven on the road, including a brutal BracketBusters date at Nevada. Panthers should start to be concerned.
Wichita State [13-8 (5-6), RPI: 61, SOS: 73] Enormous win at Northern Iowa Tuesday night gets the Shockers back to .500 in the Valley. Kyle Wilson's pure 3 at the shot-clock buzzer late in the game helped stave off a huge UNI rally and could be the shot that salvages the Shockers' season. Five of the next six are at home, starting with league big dog Southern Illinois.
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