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At large bids for 2018 NCAA Tournament

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  • At large bids for 2018 NCAA Tournament

    Just looking at the standings in several of the top conferences this season, and it looks like there might be a few more at-large bids available for mid-majors to grab in the 2018 NCAA Tournament. It would have been a great year for a couple other MVC teams to step forward with RPI's in the 40's or better and challenge for at-large bids, but unfortunately, only Loyola is anywhere close enough to be considered, and even they are borderline.

    Here are how some of the top conferences from last year are doing this season--

    The Atlantic-10 was predicted by some to be really good this year. Last season, there were 7 teams from the A-10 that had 20 or more wins, and the A-10 conference got 3 teams into the NCAA Tournament (Rhode Island, VCU, and Dayton), and a couple others were close
    Before this season, I recall seeing several predictions that there could be as many as 3 or 4 or more Atlantic-10 teams in the 2018 NCAA Tournament.
    But here are the current standings-
    2018 College Basketball Atlantic 10 Conference Standings: Conference RPI rank, conference and division standings, conference record, games back, overall record, team rpi, and streak.

    Obviously, there are only two A-10 teams with any hope of getting in unless someone pulls a huge upset in their tournament.

    The Big Ten got 7 teams in the 2017 tournament (Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, and Minnesota). But this season, they probably deserve only 4 or 5, though I wouldn't be surprised to see them get more-
    2018 College Basketball Big Ten Conference Standings: Conference RPI rank, conference and division standings, conference record, games back, overall record, team rpi, and streak.


    The ACC got a record-setting 9 teams in last year's tournament. But this year it might be a couple fewer, although again, don't be surprised to see the NCAA screw some midmajors just to let an ACC team in with double-digit losses and an RPI in the 50's or 60's-
    2018 College Basketball ACC Conference Standings: Conference RPI rank, conference and division standings, conference record, games back, overall record, team rpi, and streak.


    The Big 12 got 6 teams in last year, but there doen't appear to be as many that deserve it this year-
    2018 College Basketball Big 12 Conference Standings: Conference RPI rank, conference and division standings, conference record, games back, overall record, team rpi, and streak.


    The SEC got 5 teams in last year, and it looks like probably 5 or more will get in this year-
    2018 College Basketball SEC Conference Standings: Conference RPI rank, conference and division standings, conference record, games back, overall record, team rpi, and streak.


    And the Pac-12 got 4 teams in last year, but this year they have only 2 teams with RPI's under 40, so will they get 4 again this year? Maybe not.
    2018 College Basketball Pac-12 Conference Standings: Conference RPI rank, conference and division standings, conference record, games back, overall record, team rpi, and streak.


    Here are the MVC RPI's. Obviously, no team other than Loyola is anywhere close to an at-large caliber team, and even Loyola is borderline. But with the other major conferences looking like they won't accumulate as many at-large bids, maybe Loyola's profile will be enough this year.
    2018 College Basketball Missouri Valley Conference Standings: Conference RPI rank, conference and division standings, conference record, games back, overall record, team rpi, and streak.


    So its too bad there aren't any other solid candidates from the MVC for at-large bids this season. The best scenario for the MVC would be for Loyola to go unbeaten until the championship game of the MVC Tournament, and then get upset (why not by Bradley?). Otherwise, it will be a one-bid league.

  • #2
    Do you think that if Loyola wins the final two regular season games and makes it to the semifinals they could get an at large? Or would it take getting to the final?

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    • #3
      Originally posted by pauly616 View Post
      Do you think that if Loyola wins the final two regular season games and makes it to the semifinals they could get an at large? Or would it take getting to the final?
      I don't think there is a big difference between those 2 scenarios, though making it to the final might improve their chances slightly. If they get beaten by a team with a much lower RPI, then the loss would hurt more than if they were eliminated by a team with a better RPI like SIU or ISU.
      Overall, their chances of an at-large bid with an RPI that will be around 40 are not very good- probably well less than 50-50. Recall that ISU had a much better resume last year- 27 wins, tied for the regular season title with Wichita State at 17-1, made it to the championship game of the 2017 MVC Tournament and were beaten by Wichita State, and had an RPI of 33. Yet they did not get an at-large bid and ended up playing in the NIT.

      The biggest factors that will determine Loyola's chances are how many of the at-large spots are given to those also-ran teams in the big conferences, and how many upsets occur in conference tournaments that allow a team to get an automatic bid which would have had no chance at an at-large bid. Those things are very unpredictable.

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      • #4
        Loyola won't get an at-large bid (no matter what).

        The MVC is a one-bid league.

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        • #5
          There has been a false assumption from many that follow the MVC that it is a 1 bid league due to Wichita leaving the Valley.

          All the advanced numbers (the same numbers we have always had) show that Loyola has a very good possibility of getting in if they get to the semis or final game in STL without a loss

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          • #6
            My prediction the MVC is a 1-bid league has nothing to do with Wichita leaving. It has to do with looking at current RPI and then based on those numbers, a site projects remaining games and then projects final RPI (before Conference Tournament games). My prediction also comes on the basis of knowing how the committee favors the power conferences.

            So roughly, based on today's projected RPI

            B12 (6)
            Kansas, Tx Tech, TCU, W Va, Okla, Baylor
            bubble- Texas, Kans St

            BE (6)
            Villa, Xavier, SH, Creighton, Butler, Prov
            bubble-Marq

            SEC (7)
            Aub, Tenn, Ky, Tx AM, Ark, Mizzoo, Ala
            bubble- Fla

            ACC (8,)
            Va, Duke, UNC, Clem, Mia, Syra, L'Ville, Fla St
            bubble- Va Tech, NC St

            P12 (4)
            Az, Az St, USC, UCLA
            bubble- Utah, Wash

            B10 (4)
            Purd, Mich St, OSU, Mich
            bubble- Md, Nebr, Penn St

            AAC (3)
            Cincy, Wichita, Hou
            bubble- Temple

            MVC (1)
            bubble- Loyola

            MWC (1)
            Nevada
            bubble- Boise St

            A10 (2)
            URI, St Bonnies

            MAC (1)
            bubble-Buffalo

            WCC (2)
            Gonzaga, St Mary's

            CUSA (1)
            bubble- M Tenn St

            Colonial (1)
            WAC (1)
            Summit (1)
            S'rn (1)
            B Sky (1)
            MAAC (1)
            OVC (1)
            Sun Belt (1)
            B West (1)
            Amer East (1)
            Ivy (1)
            B South (1)
            NE (1)
            Horiz (1)
            Patriot (1)
            A Sun (1)
            S'land (1)
            MEAC (1)
            SWAC (1)

            That's 65 bids I'm counting. So if Loyola doesn't win MVC Tourney, they will be competing with 15 bubble teams I mentioned to get the last 3 bids.

            This also doesn't have Notre Dame mentioned. Right now I have them off the board projecting to finish just over 70 in the RPI with an 8-10 record in the ACC. BUT! If Bonzie returns and is healthy and they make a run their numbers will improve and the impression on the committee will improve. I would almost guarantee a successful stretch run with a healthy Bonzie will get an at-large over Loyola.

            So... based on the history of the committee favoring the power conferences along with 15 (16 if including ND) other teams on the board... I stand by my prediction the MVC is a 1-bid league.

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            • #7
              Loyola's RPI improved to 33 with their win at SIU tonight-
              2018 College Basketball Missouri Valley Conference Standings: Conference RPI rank, conference and division standings, conference record, games back, overall record, team rpi, and streak.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Da Coach View Post
                Loyola's RPI improved to 33 with their win at SIU tonight-
                http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...issouri-Valley

                The higher the RPI they get, the worse it's gonna sting when snubbed.

                NCAA looks more heavily on things outside RPI now.

                Jay 'Bias' Bilas and his 'eye-test' has more weight than the antiquated RPI.

                Comment


                • #9
                  non-conf RPI of almost 300 and the Florida win not looking so strong now as Florida drops well out of the Top 50 RPI and has lost 5 of their last 7.
                  But I think there will be enough at-large bid this year for a few solid mid-majors - with the pool of teams in a few of the big conferences being much shallower. The Big Ten, instead of having 6, 7, or 8 tournament-worthy teams, this year seems to have only 4, maybe 5.

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