Bracketology

[Da Coach]

Updates as of Tuesday, March 7-

CBSSports.com Jerry Palm has an update this morning with little change.
He still has Wichita State as a #11 seed and Illinois State listed 4th among his First 4 Out. Illinois is also among the First 4 Out-

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

ESPN Joe Lunardi also has an update this morning. Wichita State remains a #8 seed, and Illinois State is still listed as the final team in the 68-team field, and playing in the "First Four" play-in round in Dayton. Illinois is listed 3rd among the First 4 Out.-

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

USA Today has a new updated bracket. They have Wichita State as a #11 seed, and Illinois State listed 3rd among the First 4 Out. They also show Illinois back in the field and among the Last 4 In.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/03/07/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-saint-marys/98842336/

[tornado]

This morning-

RPI 29 Wichita State
RPI 31 - Illinois State
RPI 54 Northwestern
RPI 58 Illinois
RPI 77 Valparaiso
RPI 145 SIU (3rd best in MVC)
RPI 160 Northern Iowa
RPI 180 Loyola
RPI 186 Evansville
RPI 207 Missouri State
RPI 221 Bradley
RPI 236 Indiana State
RPI 317 Drake

NCAA rarely gives at-large bids to teams with RPI over 50, and NIT usually doesn't give at-large bids to teams over 100 or so
The other tourneys (CBI, CIT, Vegas 16) take teams from 80's thru ~200
..so you have to think maybe we get two in the NCAA, but likely none in NIT, and possibly SIU, UNI or Loyola could be targets for the lesser tourneys.


I would be stunned if Illinois is in but ISU is out - not completely surprised but definitely stunned.

[Da Coach]

The selection committee changes its criteria every year, and in the last few years they have not put as much weight on RPI, and instead focused more on Strength of Schedule. Unfortunately, between mediocre non-conference schedules and the weak MVC this year, the SOS for Wichita State is 140, and for ISU is 125. Illinois SOS is 24, which may get them in ahead of ISU.
Everything can still be affected by an upset team winning any one of the top conference tournaments.
Valpo, by losing in the first round of the Horizon tournament, and losing Alec Peters for the rest of the season, and the fact they have an RPI of 77 and a SOS of 189, does not have a prayer of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA. By winning the regular season title, they will get an automatic bid to the NIT. But the Horizon will remain a 1-bid league.

For the record- the worst RPI team ever given an at-large bid were USC (RPI 73) in 2011 and Syracuse (RPI 70) in 2016.
On the other hand, in the last 10 years, the best RPI for a Major school that did not get a bid was 48. So the major schools seem pretty guaranteed if their RPI stays below 50.
However, that could be tested this year, since there are a couple major teams in the 40-50 RPI range with questionable resumes.
Of the major schools with RPI's betwen 50-60, only about 56% of them have gotten at-large bids in the last 10 years. For major schools with an RPI 61-70, only 17% have gotten at-large bids.

However, the worst RPI for an at-large midmajor team (a team not in the "Power 6" [Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Acc, SEC, Pac 12] conferences) was Tulsa last year with an RPI of 61.

And we all recall that Missouri State remains the school with the best RPI not to get a bid (RPI 21 in 2006). Here are the worst snubs in the past. Since the NCAA field has been expanded to 68, this record may not be broken soon-



Of all the D1 schools, majors & midmajors included, that were eligible for the NCAA tournament and who did not get automatic bids for winning their conference tournament in the last 10 years- every one who had an RPI below 30 got an at-large bid. So ISU is on that borderline and is in pretty good shape (ISU's RPI is currently 31). There were 2 schools with an RPI of 30 who did not get a bid (Colorado State in 2015 & St. Bonaventure in 2016).

[Da Coach]

ESPN's Jeff Borzello has ISU out-

https://twitter.com/jeffborzello/status/839237051182690306

[tornado]

If that happened, there would be a few ISU and MVC fans pretty upset.

[Da Coach]

.....
Valpo, by losing in the first round of the Horizon tournament, and losing Alec Peters for the rest of the season, and the fact they have an RPI of 77 and a SOS of 189, does not have a prayer of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA....

The Horizon League championship is tonight featuring the #4 seed Northern Kentucky against the #10 seeded UW-Milwaukee. Milwaukee finished the regular season dead last in the Horizon, with the worst overall record of any team, and just 7 D1 wins. The top 3 seeds (Valpo, Oakland, and Green Bay) were all eliminated in their first game.
Milwaukee was 4-14 in the Horizon, and is now 11-23 overall after 3 wins over Detroit, Valpo, and UIC in the first 3 rounds of the tournament. Their RPI was 264 at the end of their schedule, but has improved to 257 with the 3 additional wins.

This is the first season for new head coach LaVall Jordan, who took over a year ago when the highly unpopular Athletic Director at UW-M fired Rob Jeter, who won 20 games in his final season (20-13 in 2015-16).

http://deadspin.com/uw-milwaukee-radio-play-by-play-guy-quits-burns-every-1771178090

http://www.wtmj.com/shows/sports-central/the-two-sides-to-the-milwaukee-panthers-saga-rob-jeter

http://mediamilwaukee.com/top-stories/amanda-braun-tennis-coach

UW-M Fans are not real happy about the meddling by the relatively new AD, and the change in coaches driven mostly by personal issues, especially going from a 20-win team, to a last place, 23-loss team in one season. Winning the HL tournament will make them a bit happier, but there are still bad feelings toward the AD for the way she handled this and several other situations, as well as her sentiments toward the fans..

[Da Coach]

Milwaukee's surprising run through the Horizon League tournament ended tonight as Northern Kentucky beat them 59-53-

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400945867

So Northern Kentucky wins the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament in just their first season that they are officially in Division I and eligible to compete for the NCAA Tournament! It is also just their 2nd season in the Horizon League.

[Da Coach]

South Dakota State just won the Summit League tournament as a #4 seed. Summitt League POY Mike Daum had 37 points and 12 rebounds. He was unbelievable.

[BUSongwriter]

Can we agree that any Big 10 team that does not reach the quarterfinals of its tournament does not belong in the Big Dance?

I mean, if Illinois State gets bumped out because it loses to Wichita in the FINALS of our tournament, why should a Northwestern or an Iowa get selected if they can't even win a game in their tournament? And if they do lose and get selected, what in the world do the Power 5 conference tournaments mean other than revenue?

[Da Coach]

This year, there have been a few surprises, but nothing yet that has upset the brackets to allow an unwarranted team to get an autobid and bump a more deserving team. And it looks like all the projected 1-bid conferences will remain 1-bid conferences.
Plus, last night Georgia Tech, another bubble team got beat in the first round of the ACC Tournament by a bad Pitt team, which will eliminate them as an at-large consideration.
So it may be looking a little better for ISU and Illinois (if the Illini don't get beat early in the Big 10 tournament).

[tornado]

Illinois coming off a bad loss to Rutgers, cannot afford an opening round loss playing Michigan.... a team Illinois split with during the season - but Michigan is also a team that tends to peak at tourney time and do well - they have never lost their opening round game in the Big Ten Tourney under John Beilein - not even when they were 9-21 in 2008.

[tornado]

the Bubble maybe getting less crowded??
Syracuse loses right away in their tourney...

they were 18-14 with an RPI of 85 but some gurus still had them in or on the bubble because of six wins against Top 50 teams,

[Da Coach]

Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi of ESPN in his updated bracket today (March 9), still has Illinois State as the last team in the field of 68 teams, but has now dropped them from an #11 seed to a #12 seed, and has them playing in the "First Four" play-in round in Dayton. Wichita State remains as a #9 seed.
He has Illinois listed 3rd on his First 4 Out.-

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

CBSSports.com's bracketologist Jerry Palm still has Illinois State among his First 4 Out, and he has them listed as the 4th team on the list of First 4 Out, meaning in his opinion, they need a lot of help to climb back into the tournament. Wichita State is still a lowly #11 seed in his bracket, and Illinois is listed 2nd on his First 4 Out.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[tornado]

a lot of teams in their Bracketology that are gonna be weak picks if they get knocked out in the 1st round of their tourneys, like Michigan, MichiganState, Northwestern, and astoundingly hard to believe he still has SYRACUSE in there!!

Syracuse finished 9th in their conference at 18-14
an RPI of 84
a non-conference STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE of 194!!!
FIVE losses to teams with RPI over 100 and NINE losses to teams with Top 100 RPI
Loss to 13-16 UConn
Loss to terrible Georgetown
Loss to Boston College who won only 9 games total!!! ...and Georgia Tech
Only 5-5 in their final 10 games!!


Holy cow - and they left out Barry Hinson with an RPI of 20??


and Kansas State in?
8-10 in B-12?
RPI 60, non-conference SOS 225!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3-8 vs. Top 50 and 5-10 vs Top100!
and only 4-6 in their last 10 games!!

[Da Coach]

Syracuse already lost in the ACC tournament and are eliminated. Their RPI is 84, so it is a mystery why they remain a bubble team to most people.

The games that Illinois State is closely watching today are:
Illinois vs. Michigan- both are bubble teams, but one will probably be bumped off when they lose this game.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M
Miami vs. North Carolina- Miami is almost certainly in, but with a blowout loss, who knows.
Oklahoma State vs. #23 Iowa State- OSU also seems pretty securely in the tournament, but a bad loss could knock them down
Middle Tennessee vs. UT San Antonio- Middle Tennessee is the class of the CUSA, and should win their tournament. But with a loss, they might still deserve an at-large bid with their RPI of 37 and steal a bid away from bubble teams
Tennessee vs. Georgia- Georgia is still a bubble team, despite their 9-9 SEC record. Bubble teams will be pulling for Tennessee to beat them
Michigan St. vs Penn St.- Michigan State is pretty safe, but a bad loss in round 1 of the Big 10 tournament could push them to the bubble with their 50+ RPI, though I doubt it, since the committee loves them too much.
Seton Hall vs. Marquette- Seton Hall (RPI 44) could also be pushed down to the bubble with a bad loss. Marquette (RPI 55) is in the same position.
Nevada vs. Utah State.- Nevada is barely in the tournament as the presumed auto-bid from the MWC, but a loss would make them a bubble team
North Dakota vs. Portland State- Norh Dakota is the presumed Big Sky auto bid, but their RPI of 36 would make them a bubble team as an at-large if they do not win the Big Sky tournamnet. Other bubble teams don't want to see that.
Iowa vs. Indiana- Iowa still a bubble team, and among First 4 Out in a lot of brackets
Virginia Tech vs. Florida State- VA tech fairly solidly in right now, but with their RPI of 42, could be pushed to the bubble with a bad loss
Xavier vs. Butler- Xavier is barely in right now, and could be pushed to the bubble with a bad loss.
Northwestern vs. Rutgers- Northwestern needs to win
Kansas State vs. Baylor- KSU is on the bubble, and needs a good showing, probably needs to win or be bumped off
Providence vs. Creighton- Providence is barely in, and a bad loss would bump them to the bubble. Creighton seems safe either way, but who knows.
California vs. Utah- Cal is a bubble team, along with Illinois, ISU, and others, and if they advance very far will bump others down